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finding 15.2 : key-finding-15-2
The physical and socioeconomic impacts of compound extreme events (such as simultaneous heat and drought, wildfires associated with hot and dry conditions, or flooding associated with high precipitation on top of snow or waterlogged ground) can be greater than the sum of the parts (very high confidence). Few analyses consider the spatial or temporal correlation between extreme events
This finding is from chapter 15 of Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I.
Process for developing key messages: The key finding is based on the 2012 IPCC SREX report, particularly section 3.1.3 on compound or multiple events, which presents a thorough assessment of the relevant literature.
Description of evidence base: This key finding is based on a large body of scientific literature summarized in the 2012 IPCC Special Report on Extremes.089d8050-f4c8-4d07-bc35-25bf61691be3 The report’s Summary for Policymakers (page 6) states, “exposure and vulnerability are key determinants of disaster risk and of impacts when risk is realized... extreme impacts on human, ecological, or physical systems can result from individual extreme weather or climate events. Extreme impacts can also result from non-extreme events where exposure and vulnerability are high or from a compounding of events or their impacts. For example, drought, coupled with extreme heat and low humidity, can increase the risk of wildfire.”
New information and remaining uncertainties: The largest uncertainties are in the temporal congruence of the events and the compounding nature of their impacts.
Assessment of confidence based on evidence: There is very high confidence that the impacts of multiple events could exceed the sum of the impacts of events occurring individually.
ProvenanceThis finding was derived from figure -.2: Confidence / Likelihood
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