---
chapter:
  doi: 10.7930/J0GB227J
  identifier: potential-surprises
  number: 15
  report_identifier: climate-science-special-report
  sort_key: 17
  title: 'Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements'
  url: https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/15/
chapter_identifier: potential-surprises
cited_by: []
confidence: There is <em>very high confidence</em> that the impacts of multiple events could exceed the sum of the impacts of events occurring individually.
contributors: []
evidence: 'This key finding is based on a large body of scientific literature summarized in the 2012 IPCC Special Report on Extremes.<tbib>089d8050-f4c8-4d07-bc35-25bf61691be3</tbib> The report’s Summary for Policymakers (page 6) states, “exposure and vulnerability are key determinants of disaster risk and of impacts when risk is realized... extreme impacts on human, ecological, or physical systems can result from individual extreme weather or climate events. Extreme impacts can also result from non-extreme events where exposure and vulnerability are high or from a compounding of events or their impacts. For example, drought, coupled with extreme heat and low humidity, can increase the risk of wildfire.”'
files: []
gcmd_keywords: []
href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-2.yaml
identifier: key-finding-15-2
ordinal: 2
parents:
  - activity_uri: ~
    label: 'figure -.2: Confidence / Likelihood'
    note: ''
    publication_type_identifier: figure
    relationship: prov:wasDerivedFrom
    url: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/front-matter/figure/confidence---likelihood
process: 'The key finding is based on the 2012 IPCC SREX report, particularly section 3.1.3 on compound or multiple events, which presents a thorough assessment of the relevant literature.'
references:
  - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/089d8050-f4c8-4d07-bc35-25bf61691be3.yaml
    uri: /reference/089d8050-f4c8-4d07-bc35-25bf61691be3
regions: []
report_identifier: climate-science-special-report
statement: 'The physical and socioeconomic impacts of compound extreme events (such as simultaneous heat and drought, wildfires associated with hot and dry conditions, or flooding associated with high precipitation on top of snow or waterlogged ground) can be greater than the sum of the parts (<em>very high confidence</em>). Few analyses consider the spatial or temporal correlation between extreme events'
uncertainties: The largest uncertainties are in the temporal congruence of the events and the compounding nature of their impacts.
uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-2
url: ~