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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-3>
   dcterms:identifier "key-finding-15-3";
   gcis:findingNumber "15.3"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "While climate models incorporate important climate processes that can be well quantified, they do not include all of the processes that can contribute to feedbacks, compound extreme events, and abrupt and/or irreversible changes. For this reason, future changes outside the range projected by climate models cannot be ruled out (<em>very high confidence</em>). Moreover, the systematic tendency of climate models to underestimate temperature change during warm paleoclimates suggests that climate models are more likely to underestimate than to overestimate the amount of long-term future change (<em>medium confidence</em>)."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "The key finding is based on the IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 9, as well as systematic paleoclimatic model/data comparisons."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "This key finding is based on the conclusions of IPCC AR5 WG1, specifically Chapter 9; the state of the art of global models is briefly summarized in Chapter 4: Projections of this report. The second half of this key finding is based upon the tendency of global climate models to underestimate, relative to geological reconstructions, the magnitude of both long-term global mean warming and the amplification of warming at high latitudes in past warm climates (e.g., Salzmann et al. 2013; Goldner et al. 2014; Caballeo and Huber 2013; Lunt et al. 2012)."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "There is <em>very high confidence</em> that the models are incomplete representations of the real world; and there is <em>medium confidence</em> that their tendency is to under- rather than over-estimate the amount of long-term future change."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "The largest uncertainties are structural: are the models including all the important components and relationships necessary to model the feedbacks and if so, are these correctly represented in the models?"^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/cp-10-523-2014>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/35038076-c098-424d-892a-8ba6a87bf142>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate2008>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/828c7c4c-3dcf-4865-b21f-a6ad1fcedca1>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/cp-8-1717-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/97079544-53fc-496d-b8fc-871be0681b33>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1303365110>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f061a0a-e32d-417f-8404-c5ad0d4b01f4>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter09-final>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a46eaad1-5c17-46f7-bba6-d3fee718a092>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f03117be-ccfe-4f88-b70a-ffd4351b8190>.



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-3>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/front-matter/figure/confidence---likelihood>.