--- - attributes: ~ caption: 'Annual and seasonal changes in precipitation over the United States. Changes are the average for present-day (1986–2015) minus the average for the first half of the last century (1901–1960 for the contiguous United States, 1925–1960 for Alaska and Hawai‘i) divided by the average for the first half of the century. (Figure source: [top panel] adapted from Peterson et al. 2013,e15600d0-290f-44e2-9b58-9ffd295ee6d2 © American Meteorological Society. Used with permission; [bottom four panels] NOAA NCEI, data source: nCLIMDiv).' chapter_identifier: precipitation-change create_dt: 2016-10-14T19:07:38 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/observed-annual-seasonal-precip-change.yaml identifier: observed-annual-seasonal-precip-change lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 1 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-19T17:36:39 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Annual and Seasonal Changes in Precipitation uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/observed-annual-seasonal-precip-change url: ~ usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Observed changes in the 20-year return value of the seasonal daily precipitation totals for the contiguous United States over the period 1948 to 2015 using data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) dataset. (Figure source: adapted from Kunkel et al. 2013;29eee9a5-5945-4651-b199-764cb2400aed © American Meteorological Society. Used with permission.)' chapter_identifier: precipitation-change create_dt: 2016-09-30T14:31:15 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/us_ghn_20yearrv_change_no_spatial.yaml identifier: us_ghn_20yearrv_change_no_spatial lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 2 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-13T18:18:09 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 'Observed Change in Daily, 20-year Return Level Precipitation' uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/us_ghn_20yearrv_change_no_spatial url: ~ usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Index of the number of 2-day precipitation events exceeding the station-specific threshold for a 5-year recurrence interval in the contiguous United States, expressed as a percentage difference from the 1901–1960 mean. The annual values are averaged over 5-year periods, with the pentad label indicating the ending year of the period. Annual time series of the number of events are first calculated at individual stations. Next, the grid box time series are calculated as the average of all stations in the grid box. Finally, a national time series is calculated as the average of the grid box time series. Data source: GHCN-Daily. (Figure source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI).' chapter_identifier: precipitation-change create_dt: 2016-09-23T18:18:49 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/precip-change-v2.yaml identifier: precip-change-v2 lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 3 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-08-31T17:39:13 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 2-Day Precipitation Events Exceeding 5-Year Recurrence Interval uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/precip-change-v2 url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'These maps show the change in several metrics of extreme precipitation by NCA4 region, including (upper left) the maximum daily precipitation in consecutive 5-year blocks, (upper right) the amount of precipitation falling in daily events that exceed the 99th percentile of all non-zero precipitation days, (lower left) the number of 2-day events with a precipitation total exceeding the largest 2-day amount that is expected to occur, on average, only once every 5 years, as calculated over 1901–2016, and (lower right) the number of 2-day events with a precipitation total exceeding the largest 2-day amount that is expected to occur, on average, only once every 5 years, as calculated over 1958–2016. The numerical value is the percent change over the entire period, either 1901–2016 or 1958–2016. The percentages are first calculated for individual stations, then averaged over 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid boxes, and finally averaged over each NCA4 region. Note that Alaska and Hawai‘i are not included in the 1901–2016 maps owing to a lack of observations in the earlier part of the 20th century. (Figure source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI).' chapter_identifier: precipitation-change create_dt: 2017-04-27T17:29:55 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/observed-changes-in-heavy-precipitation.yaml identifier: observed-changes-in-heavy-precipitation lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 4 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-13T18:20:20 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed Change in Heavy Precipitation uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/observed-changes-in-heavy-precipitation url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected change (%) in total seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 simulations for 2070–2099. The values are weighted multimodel means and expressed as the percent change relative to the 1976–2005 average. These are results for the higher scenario (RCP8.5). Stippling indicates that changes are assessed to be large compared to natural variations. Hatching indicates that changes are assessed to be small compared to natural variations. Blank regions (if any) are where projections are assessed to be inconclusive. Data source: World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. (Figure source: NOAA NCEI).' chapter_identifier: precipitation-change create_dt: 2016-10-14T19:18:27 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/seasonal-precip-projections--rcp8-5-.yaml identifier: seasonal-precip-projections--rcp8-5- lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 5 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-13T18:20:30 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Change (%) in Seasonal Precipitation uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/seasonal-precip-projections--rcp8-5- url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Regional extreme precipitation event frequency for a lower scenario (RCP4.5) (green; 16 CMIP5 models) and the higher scenario (RCP8.5) (blue; 14 CMIP5 models) for a 2-day duration and 5-year return. Calculated for 2006–2100 but decadal anomalies begin in 2011. Error bars are ±1 standard deviation; standard deviation is calculated from the 14 or 16 model values that represent the aggregated average over the regions, over the decades, and over the ensemble members of each model. The average frequency for the historical reference period is 0.2 by definition and the values in this graph should be interpreted with respect to a comparison with this historical average value. (Figure source: Janssen et al. 20148785e73d-2258-47f6-b4f5-a79b6ac5ce25 ).' chapter_identifier: precipitation-change create_dt: 2016-09-30T12:48:03 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/futureprojection_2dy_5yr.yaml identifier: futureprojection_2dy_5yr lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 6 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-13T18:20:53 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Future Projection of Regional Extreme Precipitation of 2-Day Duration and 5 Year Return uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/futureprojection_2dy_5yr url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected change in the 20-year return period amount for daily precipitation for mid- (left maps) and late-21st century (right maps). Results are shown for a lower scenario (top maps; RCP4.5) and for a higher scenario (bottom maps, RCP8.5). These results are calculated from the LOCA downscaled data. (Figure source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI).' chapter_identifier: precipitation-change create_dt: 2016-11-15T19:33:56 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/cs_projected-change-daily-20-yr-extreme-precip_v1.yaml identifier: cs_projected-change-daily-20-yr-extreme-precip_v1 lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 7 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-13T18:21:59 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 'Projected Change in Daily, 20-year Extreme Precipitation' uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/cs_projected-change-daily-20-yr-extreme-precip_v1 url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected change (percentage change relative to the 1976–2005 reference period average) in the number of daily zero (“No-Precip”) and non-zero precipitation days (by percentile bins) for late-21st century under a higher scenario (RCP8.5). The precipitation percentile bin thresholds are based on daily non-zero precipitation amounts from the 1976–2005 reference period that have been ranked from low to high. These results are calculated from the LOCA downscaled data. (Figure source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI).' chapter_identifier: precipitation-change create_dt: 2017-04-24T15:40:36 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/change-in-the-number-of-days-within-precipitation-percentile-intervals.yaml identifier: change-in-the-number-of-days-within-precipitation-percentile-intervals lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 8 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-13T18:22:11 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Change in the Number of Days Within Precipitation Percentile Intervals uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change/figure/change-in-the-number-of-days-within-precipitation-percentile-intervals url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source.