Figure : futureprojection_2dy_5yr

Future Projection of Regional Extreme Precipitation of 2-Day Duration and 5 Year Return

Figure 7.6

Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC
Kenneth E. Kunkel

This figure appears in chapter 7 of the Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I report.

Regional extreme precipitation event frequency for a lower scenario (RCP4.5) (green; 16 CMIP5 models) and the higher scenario (RCP8.5) (blue; 14 CMIP5 models) for a 2-day duration and 5-year return. Calculated for 2006–2100 but decadal anomalies begin in 2011. Error bars are ±1 standard deviation; standard deviation is calculated from the 14 or 16 model values that represent the aggregated average over the regions, over the decades, and over the ensemble members of each model. The average frequency for the historical reference period is 0.2 by definition and the values in this graph should be interpreted with respect to a comparison with this historical average value. (Figure source: Janssen et al. 20148785e73d-2258-47f6-b4f5-a79b6ac5ce25 ).

Free to use with credit to the original figure source.

This figure was created on September 30, 2016.

This figure was submitted on October 13, 2017.

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