Figure : ectp

Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections

Figure 4.1

Texas Tech University
Katharine Hayhoe

This figure appears in chapter 4 of the Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I report.

The climate projections used in this report are based on the 2010 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, right). They are largely consistent with scenarios used in previous assessments, the 2000 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, left). This figure compares SRES and RCP annual carbon emissions (GtC, first row), annual methane emissions (MtCH4, second row), nitrous oxide emissions (MtN2O, third row), carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere (ppm, fourth row), global mean temperature change relative to 1900–1960 that would result from the central estimate (lines) and the likely range (shaded areas) of climate sensitivity as calculated by an energy balance model (°F, fifth row), and global mean temperature change relative to 1900–1960 as simulated by CMIP3 models for the SRES scenarios and CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (°F, sixth row). Note that global mean temperature from SRES A1FI simulations are only available from four global climate models, hence the much smaller range. (Data from IIASA, CMIP3, and CMIP5).

Free to use with credit to the original figure source.

This figure was created on October 27, 2017.

This figure was submitted on November 02, 2017.

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