Figure : uncertainty-in-decadal-mean-temp

Uncertainty in Decadal Mean Temperature

Figure 4.5

University of Reading
Ed Hawkins

This figure appears in chapter 4 of the Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I report.

The fraction of total variance in decadal mean surface air temperature predictions explained by the three components of total uncertainty is shown for the lower 48 states (similar results are seen for Hawai’i and Alaska, not shown). Orange regions represent human or scenario uncertainty, blue regions represent model uncertainty, and green regions represent the internal variability component. As the size of the region is reduced, the relative importance of internal variability increases. In interpreting this figure, it is important to remember that it shows the fractional sources of uncertainty. Total uncertainty increases as time progresses. (Figure source: adapted from Hawkins and Sutton 2009c247acf0-2a87-4337-b6d7-77686d049eed ).

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This figure was created on October 14, 2016.

This figure was submitted on October 31, 2017.

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