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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-2>
   dcterms:identifier "key-finding-4-2";
   gcis:findingNumber "4.2"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Over the next two decades, global temperature increase is projected to be between 0.5°F and 1.3°F (0.3°–0.7°C) (<em>medium confidence</em>). This range is primarily due to uncertainties in natural sources of variability that affect short-term trends. In some regions, this means that the trend may not be distinguishable from natural variability (<em>high confidence</em>)."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "The estimated warming presented in this Key Finding is based on calculations reported by Kirtman et al. The key finding that natural variability is the most important uncertainty over the near-term is based on multiple peer reviewed publications."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The estimate of projected near-term warming under continued emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and aerosols was obtained directly from IPCC AR5 WG1. <br><br> The statement regarding the sources of uncertainty in near-term projections and regional uncertainty is based on Hawkins and Sutton and Deser et al."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "The first statement regarding projected warming over the next two decades has <em>medium confidence</em> in the amount of warming due to the uncertainties described in the key finding. The second statement has <em>high confidence</em>, as the literature strongly supports the statement that natural variability is the primary source of uncertainty over time scales of years to decades."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "As stated in the key finding, natural variability is the primary uncertainty in quantifying the amount of global temperature change over the next two decades."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter11-final>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2f638e6d-6ba0-4426-a196-fbc3ef435d40>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate1562>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/aaae6beb-646c-41df-945d-3a2af8a72aee>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c247acf0-2a87-4337-b6d7-77686d049eed>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cbb67d95-422d-4ffc-9fbd-dec79795f437>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f4ea5568-b3de-47ae-b725-8f7b45960040>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f8119757-e6b9-4434-9e12-26fb2d2a1a3b>.



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-2>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/front-matter/figure/confidence---likelihood>.