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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   dcterms:identifier "key-finding-4-4";
   gcis:findingNumber "4.4"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Global mean atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) concentration has now passed 400 ppm, a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today (<em>high confidence</em>). Continued growth in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens of millions of years (<em>medium confidence</em>). The present-day emissions rate of nearly 10 GtC per year suggests that there is no climate analog for this century any time in at least the last 50 million years (<em>medium confidence</em>)."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "The key finding is based on a vast body of literature that summarizes the results of observations, paleoclimate analyses, and paleoclimate modeling over the past 50 years and more."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The key finding is based on a large body of research including Crowley, Schneider et al., Lunt et al., Otto-Bleisner et al., NEEM, Jouzel et al., Dutton et al., Seki et al., Haywood et al., Miller et al., Royer, Bowen et al., Kirtland Turner et al., Penman et al., Zeebe et al., and summarized in NRC and Masson-Delmotte et al."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<em>High confidence</em> in the likelihood statement that past global mean temperature and sea level rise were higher with similar or higher CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations is based on Masson-Delmotte et al. in IPCC AR5. <em>Medium confidence</em> that no precise analog exists in 66 million years is based on Zeebe et al. as well as the larger body of literature summarized in Masson-Delmotte et al."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "The largest uncertainty is the measurement of past sea level, given the contributions of not only changes in land ice mass, but also in solid earth, mantle, isostatic adjustments, etc. that occur on timescales of millions of years. This uncertainty increases the further back in time we go; however, the signal (and forcing) size is also much greater. There are also associated uncertainties in precise quantification of past global mean temperature and carbon dioxide levels. There is uncertainty in the age models used to determine rates of change and coincidence of response at shorter, sub-millennial timescales."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/ngeo2316>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/15c1814b-577b-4ba3-90ce-86948daba0e0>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003%3C1282:atasga%3E2.0.co;2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2d65f18b-ef81-450c-b48f-4d665f0f2407>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/37dd80fe-a13f-4954-8162-dd96ba4af5bc>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3be9654e-ee0f-42cf-94cd-a3ed5e32fb43>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.01.037>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4a5890ba-0829-4cdd-8dc2-e77e46a25be5>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4feca1bb-a6c0-49ea-aff8-76224ffd5a82>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1098/rsta.2013.0097>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6c1e37e5-22fa-4b90-951f-7757927845fb>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter05-final>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6f4c1264-ab24-4802-9171-ea967deecc6c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nature11789>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7f28a81a-4e01-4d93-ac07-7b133a0783e2>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1130/g32869.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/920fc97d-049b-4cf3-9702-8c14f4c3208d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/cp-8-1717-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/97079544-53fc-496d-b8fc-871be0681b33>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1141038>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a5055be6-7deb-484f-b027-69c2ac661c68>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/ngeo2681>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a7eaa271-3c43-4c6f-add7-305f4e0ce52e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nrc-stabilization-targets-2011>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a8b2d884-2bfb-4a5a-bfa4-a28bd4d68ca9>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/cp-9-2507-2013>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bd8bf653-6f62-479e-964c-8d5165a274a4>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.aaa4019>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c0bdfdf2-5012-4496-9d27-c8d540fd4d4b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/ngeo2240>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e236d370-b985-4c1f-9752-22830fa9e5c6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2014PA002621>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/edd64878-de00-482f-9672-f187bf0e7c62>.



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections/finding/key-finding-4-4>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/front-matter/figure/confidence---likelihood>.