--- - attrs: .publisher: 'Wiley Periodicals, Inc.' .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Kopp, Robert E.; Horton, Radley M.; Little, Christopher M.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Rasmussen, D. J.; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Tebaldi, Claudia' DOI: 10.1002/2014EF000239 ISSN: 2328-4277 Issue: 8 Journal: Earth’s Future Keywords: sea level; coastal flooding; climate change; risk analysis; uncertainty quantification; 1641 Sea level change; 1821 Floods Pages: 383-406 Title: Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites Volume: 2 Year: 2014 _record_number: 19430 _uuid: 38924fa0-a0dd-44c9-a2a0-366ca610b280 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2014EF000239 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/38924fa0-a0dd-44c9-a2a0-366ca610b280.yaml identifier: 38924fa0-a0dd-44c9-a2a0-366ca610b280 uri: /reference/38924fa0-a0dd-44c9-a2a0-366ca610b280 - attrs: .publisher: Nature Publishing Group .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Bamber, J. L.; Aspinall, W. P.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1778 Date: 04//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 4 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 424-427 Title: An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets Volume: 3 Year: 2013 _record_number: 20776 _uuid: 86851f34-1534-4feb-aa11-8e0d7eeb0b11 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate1778 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/86851f34-1534-4feb-aa11-8e0d7eeb0b11.yaml identifier: 86851f34-1534-4feb-aa11-8e0d7eeb0b11 uri: /reference/86851f34-1534-4feb-aa11-8e0d7eeb0b11 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: "Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections." Author: 'Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1500515113 Date: 'March 8, 2016' Issue: 10 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 2597-2602 Title: Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment Volume: 113 Year: 2016 _record_number: 19441 _uuid: 94117a50-acc5-4dbf-8029-368aa3fc9680 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1500515113 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/94117a50-acc5-4dbf-8029-368aa3fc9680.yaml identifier: 94117a50-acc5-4dbf-8029-368aa3fc9680 uri: /reference/94117a50-acc5-4dbf-8029-368aa3fc9680 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.' Author: 'Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1517056113 Date: 'March 15, 2016' Issue: 11 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: E1434-E1441 Title: Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era Volume: 113 Year: 2016 _record_number: 19558 _uuid: a0130167-b319-493d-bedc-7cab8f8fe9d9 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1517056113 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a0130167-b319-493d-bedc-7cab8f8fe9d9.yaml identifier: a0130167-b319-493d-bedc-7cab8f8fe9d9 uri: /reference/a0130167-b319-493d-bedc-7cab8f8fe9d9 - attrs: .publisher: 'Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.' .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6–9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.' Author: 'DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David' DOI: 10.1038/nature17145 Date: 03/31/print ISSN: 0028-0836 Issue: 7596 Journal: Nature Pages: 591-597 Title: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise Volume: 531 Year: 2016 _record_number: 19404 _uuid: ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nature17145 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18.yaml identifier: ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18 uri: /reference/ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated by process based models with the RCP8.5 scenario. The agreement between the methods may suggest more confidence than is warranted since large uncertainties remain due to the lack of scenario-dependent projections from ice sheet dynamical models, particularly for mass loss from marine-based fast flowing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. This leads to an intrinsically hard to quantify fat tail in the probability distribution for global mean sea level rise. Thus our low probability upper limit of sea level projections cannot be considered definitive. Nevertheless, our upper limit of 180 cm for sea level rise by 2100 is based on both expert opinion and process studies and hence indicates that other lines of evidence are needed to justify a larger sea level rise this century.' Author: S. Jevrejeva; A. Grinsted; J. C. Moore DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 10 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 104008 Title: Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 Volume: 9 Year: 2014 _record_number: 19938 _uuid: be9f25a7-6fb1-4599-b971-47aeb2abf967 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/be9f25a7-6fb1-4599-b971-47aeb2abf967.yaml identifier: be9f25a7-6fb1-4599-b971-47aeb2abf967 uri: /reference/be9f25a7-6fb1-4599-b971-47aeb2abf967 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Jackson, Luke P.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana' DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.006 Date: 11// ISSN: 0921-8181 Journal: Global and Planetary Change Keywords: Sea-level projection; Probability; Uncertainty; RCP scenarios; Climate change Pages: 179-189 Title: A probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and High-end scenarios Volume: 146 Year: 2016 _record_number: 20772 _uuid: c748bd06-bc78-4b9c-b511-7dab1974211e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.006 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c748bd06-bc78-4b9c-b511-7dab1974211e.yaml identifier: c748bd06-bc78-4b9c-b511-7dab1974211e uri: /reference/c748bd06-bc78-4b9c-b511-7dab1974211e - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: J.A. Church; P.U. Clark; A. Cazenave; J.M. Gregory; S. Jevrejeva; A. Levermann; M.A. Merrifield; G.A. Milne; R.S. Nerem; P.D. Nunn; A.J. Payne; W.T. Pfeffer; D. Stammer; A.S. Unnikrishnan Book Title: 'Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change' Chapter: 13 Editor: T.F. Stocker; D. Qin; G.-K. Plattner; M. Tignor; S.K. Allen; J. Boschung; A. Nauels; Y. Xia; V. Bex; P.M. Midgley ISBN: 978-1-107-66182-0 Pages: 1137–1216 Place Published: 'Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA' Publisher: Cambridge University Press Title: Sea level change URL: http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/ Year: 2013 _record_number: 16450 _uuid: da0fddf2-c9c9-40d0-8e33-a86342d8b864 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter13-final href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/da0fddf2-c9c9-40d0-8e33-a86342d8b864.yaml identifier: da0fddf2-c9c9-40d0-8e33-a86342d8b864 uri: /reference/da0fddf2-c9c9-40d0-8e33-a86342d8b864