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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   dcterms:identifier "key-finding-12-5";
   gcis:findingNumber "12.5"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Assuming storm characteristics do not change, sea level rise will increase the frequency and extent of extreme flooding associated with coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor’easters (<em>very high confidence</em>). A projected increase in the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic (<em>medium confidence</em>) could increase the probability of extreme flooding along most of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast states beyond what would be projected based solely on RSL rise. However, there is <em>low confidence</em> in the projected increase in frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, and the associated flood risk amplification and flood effects could be offset or amplified by such factors as changes in overall storm frequency or tracks."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "This key finding is based upon several modeling studies of future hurricane characteristics and associated increases in major storm surge risk amplification."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The frequency, extent, and depth of extreme event-driven (for example, 5- to 100-year event probabilities) coastal flooding relative to existing infrastructure will continue to increase in the future as local RSL rises. Extreme flood probabilities will increase regardless of change in storm characteristics, which may exacerbate such changes. Model-based projections of tropical storms and related major storm surges within the North Atlantic mostly agree that intensities and frequencies of the most intense storms will increase this century. However, the projection of increased hurricane intensity is more robust across models than the projection of increased frequency of the most intense storms, since a number of models project a substantial decrease in the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Changes in the frequency of intense hurricanes depends on changes in both the overall frequency of tropical cyclones storms and their intensities. High-resolution models generally project an increase in mean hurricane intensity in the Atlantic (e.g., Knutson et al. 2013). In addition, there is model evidence for a change in tropical cyclone tracks in warm years that minimizes the increase in landfalling hurricanes in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic or Northeast."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "There is <em>low confidence</em> that the flood risk at specific locations will be amplified from a major tropical storm this century."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Uncertainties remain large with respect to the precise change in future risk of a major coastal impact at a specific location from changes in the most intense tropical cyclone characteristics and tracks beyond changes imposed from local sea level rise."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/01052852-079c-4b99-b224-001c783288bd>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00756.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/134b5712-13e2-4837-b710-027fe9028e8f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2014EF000239>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/38924fa0-a0dd-44c9-a2a0-366ca610b280>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1209980110>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/49de726f-4295-42f5-9c2f-81b28882856a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/bams-d-13-00085.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4c5c2377-b849-4a82-bb6d-26078d4d2d32>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00453.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/523a596c-a2b3-458f-b8f3-6e386f21c026>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nature12855>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/728f4919-d8c6-4749-968e-18a16550540b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1604386113>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/753592b0-089d-4e67-a1d6-a8e985a7e9a8>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/2011JAMC2521.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7f2a9c53-487c-4aed-84e1-43a8cd090c0b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate1389>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/94fe6e03-5a6e-4ec0-88e7-bb4f1a839af4>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/be9c98a9-915f-4d78-80b9-239b70f93ae2>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/global-regional-sea-level-rise-scenarios-united-states>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c66bf5a9-a6d7-4043-ad99-db0ae6ae562c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/regional-sea-level-scenarios-coastal-risk-management-managing-uncertainty-future-sea-level-change-extreme-water-levels-department-defense-coastal-sites-worldwide>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d2dc9855-41bc-4e94-bb79-f0ba2ff2684b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00539.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d6bd92ad-67ef-4df7-aca9-68944523e863>.



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise/finding/key-finding-12-5>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/front-matter/figure/confidence---likelihood>.