table : probability-exceeding-interagency-gmsl-scenarios

Probability of exceeding the Interagency GMSL scenarios

table 12.4


This table appears in chapter 12 of the Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I report.

Probability of exceeding the Interagency GMSL scenarios in 2100 per Kopp et al. New evidence regarding the Antarctic ice sheet, if sustained, may significantly increase the probability of the intermediate-high, high, and extreme scenarios, particularly under the higher scenario (RCP8.5), but these results have not yet been incorporated into a probabilistic analysis.

This table is composed of this array :
f1f9bbb8 (7x4)
Scenario RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Low 94% 98% 100%
Intermediate-Low 49% 73% 96%
Intermediate 2% 3% 17%
Intermediate-High 0.4% 0.5% 1.3%
High 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Extreme 0.05% 0.05% 0.1%
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