--- - attributes: ~ caption: 'Observed changes in annual, winter, and summer temperature (°F). Changes are the difference between the average for present-day (1986–2016) and the average for the first half of the last century (1901–1960 for the contiguous United States, 1925–1960 for Alaska and Hawai‘i). Estimates are derived from the nClimDiv dataset. 3d9da69e-293a-4492-a418-682590c676c7 ,cee1b7ee-b34f-409f-9b29-ca957b272e83 (Figure source: NOAA/NCEI).' chapter_identifier: temperature-change create_dt: 2016-10-14T18:04:37 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/change-in-annual-temp.yaml identifier: change-in-annual-temp lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 1 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-19T17:27:59 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 'Observed Changes in Annual, Winter, and Summer Temperature' uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/change-in-annual-temp url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Pollen-based temperature reconstruction for temperate North America. The blue curve depicts the pollen-based reconstruction of 30-year averages (as anomalies from 1904 to 1980) for the temperate region (30°–55°N, 75°–130°W). The red curve shows the corresponding tree ring-based decadal average reconstruction, which was smoothed and used to calibrate the lower-frequency pollen-based estimate. Light (medium) blue zones indicate 2 standard error (1 standard error) uncertainty estimations associated with each 30-year value. The black curve shows comparably smoothed instrumental temperature values up to 1980. The dashed black line represents the average temperature anomaly of comparably smoothed instrumental data for the period 2000–2006. (Figure source: NOAA/NCEI).' chapter_identifier: temperature-change create_dt: 2016-10-14T18:16:37 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/temp-reconstruction.yaml identifier: temp-reconstruction lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 2 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-06T16:16:46 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Pollen-Based Temperature Reconstruction uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/temp-reconstruction url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Observed changes in the coldest and warmest daily temperatures (°F) of the year in the contiguous United States. Maps (top) depict changes at stations; changes are the difference between the average for present-day (1986–2016) and the average for the first half of the last century (1901–1960). Time series (bottom) depict the area-weighted average for the contiguous United States. Estimates are derived from long-term stations with minimal missing data in the Global Historical Climatology Network–Daily dataset.9b433446-b58f-4358-9737-5a6ccc2f6fcf (Figure source: NOAA/NCEI).' chapter_identifier: temperature-change create_dt: 2016-10-14T18:22:19 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/coldest-warmest-temps.yaml identifier: coldest-warmest-temps lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 3 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-19T17:33:15 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed Changes in the Coldest and Warmest Temperatures uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/coldest-warmest-temps url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Observed changes in cold and heat waves in the contiguous United States. The top panel depicts changes in the frequency of cold waves; the middle panel depicts changes in the frequency of heat waves; and the bottom panel depicts changes in the intensity of heat waves. Cold and heat wave frequency indices are defined in Zhang et al.e6ecbe14-fe1b-46f8-bad5-bde9e4cc658a, and the heat wave intensity index is defined in Russo et al.546ef0fe-bfae-43ee-969e-5870c581e426 Estimates are derived from long-term stations with minimal missing data in the Global Historical Climatology Network–Daily dataset.9b433446-b58f-4358-9737-5a6ccc2f6fcf (Figure source: NOAA/NCEI).' chapter_identifier: temperature-change create_dt: 2016-10-14T18:24:58 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/cold-warm-spell-frequency.yaml identifier: cold-warm-spell-frequency lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 4 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-16T13:14:37 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed Changes in Cold and Heat Waves uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/cold-warm-spell-frequency url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Observed changes in the occurrence of record-setting daily temperatures in the contiguous United States. Red bars indicate a year with more daily record highs than daily record lows, while blue bars indicate a year with more record lows than highs. The height of the bar indicates the ratio of record highs to lows (red) or of record lows to highs (blue). For example, a ratio of 2:1 for a blue bar means that there were twice as many record daily lows as daily record highs that year. Estimates are derived from long-term stations with minimal missing data in the Global Historical Climatology Network–Daily dataset.9b433446-b58f-4358-9737-5a6ccc2f6fcf (Figure source: NOAA/NCEI).' chapter_identifier: temperature-change create_dt: 2017-04-18T19:49:44 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/ratio-of-daily-temperature-records.yaml identifier: ratio-of-daily-temperature-records lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 5 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-16T13:17:54 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed Changes in the Occurrence of Record-Setting Daily Temperatures uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/ratio-of-daily-temperature-records url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Detection and attribution assessment of trends in annual average temperature (°F). Grid-box values indicate whether linear trends for 1901–2015 are detectable (that is, distinct from natural variability) and/or consistent with CMIP5 historical All-Forcing runs. If the grid-box trend is found to be both detectable and either consistent with or greater than the warming in the All-Forcing runs, then the grid box is assessed as having a detectable anthropogenic contribution to warming over the period. Gray regions represent grid boxes with data that are too sparse for detection and attribution. (Figure source: updated from Knutson et al. 2013;570a5677-e743-4fb2-a031-e64752586f7c © American Meteorological Society. Used with permission.)' chapter_identifier: temperature-change create_dt: 2016-10-14T18:27:50 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/temperature-trends.yaml identifier: temperature-trends lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 6 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-06T17:29:33 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Assessment of Annual Surface Temperature Trends uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/temperature-trends url: ~ usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected changes in annual average temperatures (°F). Changes are the difference between the average for mid-century (2036–2065; top) or late-century (2070-2099, bottom) and the average for near-present (1976–2005). Each map depicts the weighted multimodel mean. Increases are statistically significant in all areas (that is, more than 50% of the models show a statistically significant change, and more than 67% agree on the sign of the changeb63c9720-f770-4718-89cc-53b3616e2bec ). (Figure source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI).' chapter_identifier: temperature-change create_dt: 2016-10-14T18:57:35 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/projected-temperature-change.yaml identifier: projected-temperature-change lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 7 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-13T20:05:20 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Changes in Annual Average Temperatures uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/projected-temperature-change url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected changes in the coldest and warmest daily temperatures (°F) of the year in the contiguous United States. Changes are the difference between the average for mid-century (2036–2065) and the average for near-present (1976–2005) under the higher scenario (RCP8.5). Maps in the top row depict the weighted multimodel mean whereas maps on the bottom row depict the mean of the three warmest models (that is, the models with the largest temperature increase). Maps are derived from 32 climate model projections that were statistically downscaled using the Localized Constructed Analogs technique.62c66ef3-cddb-4797-ba0e-5672fbcc27b3 Increases are statistically significant in all areas (that is­­, more than 50% of the models show a statistically significant change, and more than 67% agree on the sign of the changeb63c9720-f770-4718-89cc-53b3616e2bec ). (Figure source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI).' chapter_identifier: temperature-change create_dt: 2016-09-19T20:18:20 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/fig_6_7.yaml identifier: fig_6_7 lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 8 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-16T13:28:07 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Change in Coldest and Warmest Daily Temperatures uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/fig_6_7 url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected changes in the number of days per year with a maximum temperature above 90°F and a minimum temperature below 32°F in the contiguous United States. Changes are the difference between the average for mid-century (2036–2065) and the average for near-present (1976–2005) under the higher scenario (RCP8.5). Maps in the top row depict the weighted multimodel mean whereas maps on the bottom row depict the mean of the three warmest models (that is, the models with the largest temperature increase). Maps are derived from 32 climate model projections that were statistically downscaled using the Localized Constructed Analogs technique.62c66ef3-cddb-4797-ba0e-5672fbcc27b3 Changes are statistically significant in all areas (that is, more than 50% of the models show a statistically significant change, and more than 67% agree on the sign of the changeb63c9720-f770-4718-89cc-53b3616e2bec ). (Figure source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI).' chapter_identifier: temperature-change create_dt: 2016-11-18T15:19:06 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/projected-changes-in-the-number-of-days-per-year-with-a-minimum-temperature-below-32-f--left--and-a-maximum-temperature-above-100-f--right--.yaml identifier: projected-changes-in-the-number-of-days-per-year-with-a-minimum-temperature-below-32-f--left--and-a-maximum-temperature-above-100-f--right-- lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 9 report_identifier: climate-science-special-report source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2017-10-16T13:33:51 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Changes in Maximum and Minimum Temperatures uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change/figure/projected-changes-in-the-number-of-days-per-year-with-a-minimum-temperature-below-32-f--left--and-a-maximum-temperature-above-100-f--right-- url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source.