--- - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Projections of changes in climate extremes are critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Modeling advances now provide the opportunity of utilizing global general circulation models (GCMs) for projections of extreme temperature and precipitation indicators. We analyze historical and future simulations of ten such indicators as derived from an ensemble of 9 GCMs contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), under a range of emissions scenarios. Our focus is on the consensus from the GCM ensemble, in terms of direction and significance of the changes, at the global average and geographical scale. The climate extremes described by the ten indices range from heat-wave frequency to frost-day occurrence, from dry-spell length to heavy rainfall amounts. Historical trends generally agree with previous observational studies, providing a basic sense of reliability for the GCM simulations. Individual model projections for the 21st century across the three scenarios examined are in agreement in showing greater temperature extremes consistent with a warmer climate. For any specific temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models and across scenarios, while substantial differences appear in the relative magnitude of the trends under different emissions rates. Depictions of a wetter world and greater precipitation intensity emerge unequivocally in the global averages of most of the precipitation indices. However, consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from the IPCC-AR4 model ensemble, and has significant implications with regard to climate projections for impact assessments.' Author: 'Tebaldi, C.; Hayhoe, K.; Arblaster, J. M.; Meehl, G. A.' ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 3-4 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 185-211 Title: 'Going to the Extremes: An Intercomparison of Model-Simulated Historical and Future Changes in Extreme Events' Type of Article: Article Volume: 79 Year: 2006 _uuid: 00df3fab-4c55-4454-b801-e58e9ace65d6 doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00df3fab-4c55-4454-b801-e58e9ace65d6.yaml identifier: 00df3fab-4c55-4454-b801-e58e9ace65d6 uri: /reference/00df3fab-4c55-4454-b801-e58e9ace65d6 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Meehl, G. A.; Tebaldi, C.; Nychka, D.' ISSN: 1432-0894 Issue: 5 Journal: Climate Dynamics Pages: 495-511 Title: Changes in frost days in simulations of twentyfirst century climate Type of Article: Article Volume: 23 Year: 2004 _uuid: 030d2564-c07e-434b-8266-ec7cf11309ee doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0442-9 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00382-004-0442-9 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/030d2564-c07e-434b-8266-ec7cf11309ee.yaml identifier: 030d2564-c07e-434b-8266-ec7cf11309ee uri: /reference/030d2564-c07e-434b-8266-ec7cf11309ee - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Zhang, K.; Kimball, J. S.; Kim, Y.; McDonald, K. C.' ISSN: 1099-1085 Issue: 26 Journal: Hydrological Processes Pages: 4142-4151 Title: Changing freeze-thaw seasons in northern high latitudes and associated influences on evapotranspiration Type of Article: Article Volume: 25 Year: 2011 _uuid: 0351fcd3-7c9d-4c50-b531-008c1de4d237 doi: 10.1002/hyp.8350 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/hyp.8350 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0351fcd3-7c9d-4c50-b531-008c1de4d237.yaml identifier: 0351fcd3-7c9d-4c50-b531-008c1de4d237 uri: /reference/0351fcd3-7c9d-4c50-b531-008c1de4d237 - attrs: Author: 'Hayhoe, K., D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Easterling, D.W. Fahey, S. Doherty, J. Kossin, W. Sweet, R. Vose, and M. Wehner' 'Book Title ': 'Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II' DOI: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH2 Pages: 72-144 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: 'U.S. Global Change Research Program ' Title: 'Chapter 2 : Our Changing Climate' URL: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/ Year: 2018 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/nca4/chapter/our-changing-climate href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/18169e07-d269-4a21-b1bf-127e05c53db9.yaml identifier: 18169e07-d269-4a21-b1bf-127e05c53db9 uri: /reference/18169e07-d269-4a21-b1bf-127e05c53db9 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'Kim, Y.; Kimball, J. S.; Glassy, J.; McDonald, K. C.' DOI: 10.5067/MEASURES/CRYOSPHERE/nsidc-0477.002 Place Published: 'Boulder, CO' Publisher: NASA DAAC at the National Snow and Ice Data Center Title: 'MEaSUREs Global Record of Daily Landscape Freeze/Thaw Status, Version 2' URL: http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0477/versions/2 Year: 2012 _uuid: 1f6f45b2-0184-48dd-b785-1578793c2788 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/measures-global-record-of-daily-landscape-freeze-thaw-status-version-2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1f6f45b2-0184-48dd-b785-1578793c2788.yaml identifier: 1f6f45b2-0184-48dd-b785-1578793c2788 uri: /reference/1f6f45b2-0184-48dd-b785-1578793c2788 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Kim, Y.; Kimball, J.; Zhang, K.; McDonald, K.' ISSN: 1879-0704 Journal: Remote Sensing of Environment Pages: 472-487 Title: 'Satellite detection of increasing Northern Hemisphere non-frozen seasons from 1979 to 2008: Implications for regional vegetation growth' Type of Article: Article Volume: 121 Year: 2012 _uuid: 3e433145-7877-40f6-aa98-4710405483e3 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2012.02.014 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.rse.2012.02.014 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3e433145-7877-40f6-aa98-4710405483e3.yaml identifier: 3e433145-7877-40f6-aa98-4710405483e3 uri: /reference/3e433145-7877-40f6-aa98-4710405483e3 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'McDonald, K. C.; Kimball, J. S.' Book Title: Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences DOI: 10.1002/0470848944.hsa059a Place Published: Wiely Online Library Publisher: 'John Wiely and Sons, Inc.' Title: Estimation of Surface Freeze-Thaw States Using Microwave Sensors URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/0470848944.hsa059a/abstract Volume: 5:53 Year: 2006 _uuid: 931268c4-a7c9-4bef-b657-8d3d97e6bd3f reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/8db8d893-2bc3-4c51-9841-4176921122b2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/931268c4-a7c9-4bef-b657-8d3d97e6bd3f.yaml identifier: 931268c4-a7c9-4bef-b657-8d3d97e6bd3f uri: /reference/931268c4-a7c9-4bef-b657-8d3d97e6bd3f - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Kim, Y.; Kimball, J. S.; McDonald, K. C.; Glassy, J.' ISSN: 1558-0644 Issue: 3 Journal: IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing Pages: 949-960 Title: Developing a Global Data Record of Daily Landscape Freeze/Thaw Status Using Satellite Passive Microwave Remote Sensing Type of Article: Article Volume: 49 Year: 2011 _uuid: 9d81e81a-40a0-4014-90cd-f11084aba004 doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2010.2070515 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1109/TGRS.2010.2070515 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9d81e81a-40a0-4014-90cd-f11084aba004.yaml identifier: 9d81e81a-40a0-4014-90cd-f11084aba004 uri: /reference/9d81e81a-40a0-4014-90cd-f11084aba004 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Frich, P.; Alexander, L.; Della-Marta, P.; Gleason, B.; Haylock, M.; Klein Tank, A.; Peterson, T.' ISSN: 1616-1572 Journal: Climate Research Pages: 193-212 Title: Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century Type of Article: Article Volume: 19 Year: 2002 _uuid: ebad5042-325a-41aa-915d-c120fd195b6c doi: 10.3354/cr019193 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3354/cr019193 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ebad5042-325a-41aa-915d-c120fd195b6c.yaml identifier: ebad5042-325a-41aa-915d-c120fd195b6c uri: /reference/ebad5042-325a-41aa-915d-c120fd195b6c - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Kimball, J. S.; McDonald, K. C.; Running, S. W.; Frolking, S. E.' ISSN: 1879-0704 Issue: 2 Journal: Remote Sensing of Environment Pages: 243-258 Title: Satellite radar remote sensing of seasonal growing seasons for boreal and subalpine evergreen forests Type of Article: Article Volume: 90 Year: 2004 _uuid: eceab15b-6fbe-4cfe-8a7a-8b6c919bd70a doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2004.01.002 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.rse.2004.01.002 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/eceab15b-6fbe-4cfe-8a7a-8b6c919bd70a.yaml identifier: eceab15b-6fbe-4cfe-8a7a-8b6c919bd70a uri: /reference/eceab15b-6fbe-4cfe-8a7a-8b6c919bd70a