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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   dcterms:identifier "extreme-weather-impact-productivity";
   gcis:findingNumber "6.4"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "The rising incidence of weather extremes will have increasingly negative impacts on crop and livestock productivity because critical thresholds are already being exceeded."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "A central component of the process was the development of a foundational technical input report (TIR), “Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: An Assessment of Effects and Potential for Adaptation”. A public session conducted as part of the Tri-Societies (https://www.acsmeetings.org/home) meeting held in San Antonio, Texas, on Oct. 16-19, 2011, provided input to this report. \r\nThe report team engaged in multiple technical discussions via teleconference, which included careful review of the foundational TIR and of approximately 56 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as other published literature and professional judgment. Discussions were followed by expert deliberation of draft key messages by the authors and targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each message."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in the Agriculture TIR, “Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: An Assessment of Effects and Potential for Adaptation”. Additional Technical Input Reports (56) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nNumerous peer-reviewed publications provide evidence that the occurrence of extreme events is increasing, and exposure of plants or animals to temperatures and soil water conditions (drought, water-logging, flood) outside of the biological range for the given species will cause stress and reduce production. The direct effects of an extreme event will depend upon the timing of the event relative to the growth stage of the biological system.\r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "There is high confidence in the effects of extreme temperature events on crops and livestock, and the agreement in the literature is good. "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Important new evidence (cited above) confirmed many of the findings in the past Synthesis and Assessment Product on agriculture , which informed the 2009 National Climate Assessment.\r\nOne key area of uncertainty is the timing of extreme events during the phenological stage of the plant or the growth stage of the animal. For example, plants are more sensitive to extreme high temperatures during the pollination stage compared to vegetative growth stages. A parallel example for animals is relatively strong sensitivity to high temperatures during the conception phase. Milk and egg production are also vulnerable to temperature extremes. The effects of extreme combinations of weather variables must be considered, such as elevated humidity in concert with high temperatures. \r\nOther key uncertainties include inadequate precision in simulations of the timing of extreme events relative to short time periods of crop vulnerability, and temperatures close to key thresholds such as freezing. The uncertainty is amplified by the rarity of extreme events; this rarity means there are infrequent opportunities to study the impact of extreme events. In general, a shift of the distribution of temperatures can increase the frequency of threshold exceedance.\r\nThe information base can be enhanced by improving the forecast of extreme events, given that the effect of extreme events on plants or animals is known."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usda-techbul-1935>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3baf471f-751f-4d68-9227-4197fdbb6e5d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s11027-007-9125-2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/41452674-2b8f-472c-8388-02c670541943>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.3354/cr011019>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/70e31ee1-6e73-45f1-b993-cf25d371651a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ccsp-sap-4_3-2008>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/76db17ce-354b-4f0c-ad10-3e701c0387fc>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2012EO470001>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f976ed6-c1dd-437d-aaf9-062bca25bbc9>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.2134/agronj2010.0303>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2005JD006290>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bc4e302f-0956-4bb0-b345-e84dfb03223f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar4-wg1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nature06025>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e3415970-4962-4b46-93e3-6918000d0596>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/agriculture/finding/extreme-weather-impact-productivity>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/environmental-stress-in-confined-beef-cattle>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f2d47bcb-0b5f-468c-b574-a9f155403ed7>.