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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   dcterms:identifier "glacier-shrinkage-implications";
   gcis:findingNumber "22.2"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Most glaciers in Alaska and British Columbia are shrinking substantially. This trend is expected to continue and has implications for hydropower production, ocean circulation patterns, fisheries, and global sea level rise."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "A central component of the assessment process was the Alaska Regional Climate assessment workshop that was held September 12-15, 2012, in Anchorage with approximately 20 attendees; it began the process leading to a foundational Technical Input Report (TIR). The report consists of 148 pages of text, 45 figures, 8 tables, and 27 pages of references. Public and private citizens or institutions were consulted and engaged in its preparation and expert review by the various agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) represented by the 11-member TIR writing team. The key findings of the report were presented at the Alaska Forum on the Environment and in a regularly scheduled, monthly webinar by the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, with feedback then incorporated into the report.\r\nThe chapter author team engaged in multiple technical discussions via regular teleconferences. These included careful expert review of the foundational TIR and of approximately 85 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as the other published literature and professional judgment. These discussions were followed by expert deliberation of draft key messages by the writing team in a face-to-face meeting before each key message was selected for inclusion in the Report. These discussions were supported by targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each message, and they were based on criteria that help define “key vulnerabilities” (Ch. 26: Decision Support)."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The key message and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Alaska Technical Input Report. Technical input reports (85) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nEvidence that glaciers in Alaska and British Columbia are shrinking is strong and is based on field studies, energy balance models, LIDAR remote sensing, and satellite data, especially new lines of evidence from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite.\r\nEvidence is also strong that Alaska ice mass loss contributes to global sea level rise, with latest results permitting quantitative evaluation of losses globally.\r\nNumerous peer-reviewed publications describe implications of recent increases, but likely longer-term declines, in water input from glacial rivers to reservoirs and therefore hydropower resources.\r\nGlacial rivers account for 47% of the freshwater input to the Gulf of Alaska and are an important source of organic carbon, phosphorus, and iron that contribute to the high productivity of near-shore fisheries. Therefore, it is projected that the changes in discharge of glacial rivers will affect ocean circulation patterns and major U.S. and locally significant fisheries. \r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "High confidence that glacier mass loss in Alaska and British Columbia is high, contributing 20% to 30% as much to sea level rise as does shrinkage of the Greenland Ice Sheet.\r\nHigh confidence that due to glacier mass loss there will be related impacts on hydropower production, ocean circulation, fisheries, and global sea level rise. \r\n\r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Important new evidence confirmed many of the findings from a prior Alaska assessment (http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/alaska), which informed the 2009 NCA. \r\nAs noted above, major advances from GRACE and other datasets now permit analyses of glacier mass loss that were not possible previously. \r\nKey uncertainties remain related to large year-to-year variation, the spatial distribution of snow accumulation and melt, and the quantification of glacier calving into the ocean and lakes. Although most large glaciated areas of the state are regularly measured observationally, extrapolation to unmeasured areas carries uncertainties due to large spatial variability. \r\nAlthough there is broad agreement that near-shore circulation in the Gulf of Alaska is influenced by the magnitude of freshwater inputs, little is known about the mechanisms by which near-term increases and subsequent longer-term decreases in glacier runoff (as the glaciers disappear) will affect the structure of the Alaska Coastal Current and smaller-scale ocean circulation, both of which have feedback on fisheries. \r\nThe magnitude and timing of effects on hydropower production depend on changes in glacial mass, as described above. \r\n"^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/akfisheries-impactclimch-2010>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/09961450-e217-4cf4-b11f-fab19c8ea9ed>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.3189/172756409787769753>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0a0ac996-a92d-4584-9d24-f94dd27844c6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/ngeo737>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0c05253e-78bc-4ca2-80a9-468a42bf0060>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usgs-sciinvesrep-2010-5247>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/16e8187e-a734-4d60-ae4c-95021657d756>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2009JG000971>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/27f2a255-5137-466d-a34d-6899eb4132fa>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/tcd-5-1365-2011>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2c0068c4-bde0-4d10-8d9b-9135868ec825>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2010GL042385>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3132328b-bb58-47c8-a3b2-53054951f331>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.3189/002214311796406194>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5b564190-3aa3-4704-ac92-a1d439727fea>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usgs-alaska-technicalregionreport-circular1379>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6e174e7d-28f7-4ce4-9141-c378d82b4f53>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1139/x05-123>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.marchem.2010.03.009>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7312e00b-5455-4a22-9ad9-dd805a462473>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nature10847>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7578c40e-dfbf-435c-bb83-36eada4f0095>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2006GL026767>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/93088c9e-c280-4065-88cf-934e8de6697f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/ngeo280>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a955e6c1-f593-435f-aea3-61fc83bfd7b8>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1072497>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b6bd09ac-2fd9-4720-b8a3-089a37a42e95>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/ngeo1052>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c426adb7-b055-4726-80f1-82d7846f46c0>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nature08580>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cc023336-fbff-49f7-a87f-d5353f24c903>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.gca.2010.03.035>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dbc23531-4169-4dad-bfbd-fac80c5f40bb>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/glacier-shrinkage-implications>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2011GL048367>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e27d4082-48ed-4f8b-a477-dfabe8e4b40e>.