You are viewing /report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects in Turtle
Alternatives : HTML JSON YAML text N-Triples JSON Triples RDF+XML RDF+JSON Graphviz SVG
Raw
@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   dcterms:identifier "rising-permafrost-temperature-effects";
   gcis:findingNumber "22.3"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Permafrost temperatures in Alaska are rising, a thawing trend that is expected to continue, causing multiple vulnerabilities through drier landscapes, more wildfire, altered wildlife habitat, increased cost of maintaining infrastructure, and the release of heat-trapping gases that increase climate warming."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "A central component of the assessment process was the Alaska Regional Climate assessment workshop that was held September 12-15, 2012, in Anchorage with approximately 20 attendees; it began the process leading to a foundational Technical Input Report (TIR). The report consists of 148 pages of text, 45 figures, 8 tables, and 27 pages of references. Public and private citizens or institutions were consulted and engaged in its preparation and expert review by the various agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) represented by the 11-member TIR writing team. The key findings of the report were presented at the Alaska Forum on the Environment and in a regularly scheduled, monthly webinar by the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, with feedback then incorporated into the report.\r\nThe chapter author team engaged in multiple technical discussions via regular teleconferences. These included careful expert review of the foundational TIR and of approximately 85 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as the other published literature and professional judgment. These discussions were followed by expert deliberation of draft key messages by the writing team in a face-to-face meeting before each key message was selected for inclusion in the Report. These discussions were supported by targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each message, and they were based on criteria that help define “key vulnerabilities” (Ch. 26: Decision Support)."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The key message and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Alaska Technical Input Report. Technical input reports (85) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nPrevious evidence that permafrost is warming has been confirmed and enhanced by more recent studies. The most recent modeling efforts (for example, Avis et al. 2011; Jafarov et al. 2012) extend earlier results and project that permafrost will be lost from the upper few meters from large parts of Alaska by the end of this century. \r\nEvidence that permafrost thaw leads to drier landscapes is beginning to accumulate, especially as improved remote sensing tools are applied to assess more remote regions.\r\nSatellite data has expanded the capacity to monitor wildfire across the region, providing additional evidence of wildfire extent. This new evidence has led to increased study that is beginning to reveal impacts on ecosystems and wildlife habitat, but much more work is needed to understand the extent of natural resilience. \r\nImpacts of permafrost thaw on the maintenance of infrastructure is currently moderate but rapidly accumulating. Evidence that permafrost thaw will jeopardize efforts to offset fossil fuel emissions is suggestive (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate).\r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Very high confidence that permafrost is warming.\r\nHigh confidence that landscapes in interior Alaska are getting drier, although the relative importance of different mechanisms is not completely clear. \r\nMedium confidence that thawing permafrost results in more wildfires. There is high confidence that wildfires have been increasing in recent decades, even if it is not clear whether permafrost thaw or hotter and drier weather is more important. \r\nHigh confidence that climate change will lead to increased maintenance costs in future decades. Low confidence that climate change has led to increased maintenance costs of infrastructure in recent decades.\r\nVery high confidence that ecological changes will cause Alaska to become a source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, even though evidence that Alaska is currently a carbon source is only suggestive. \r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Important new evidence confirmed many of the findings from a prior Alaska assessment (http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/alaska), which informed the 2009 NCA. \r\nThis evidence included results from improved models and updated observational data. The assessment included insights from stakeholders collected in a series of distributed engagement meetings that confirm the relevance and significance of the key message for local decision-makers. \r\nKey uncertainties involve: 1) the degree to which increases in evapotranspiration versus permafrost thaw are leading to drier landscapes; 2) the degree to which it is these drier landscapes associated with permafrost thaw, versus more severe fire weather associated with climate change, that is leading to more wildfire; 3) the degree to which the costs of the maintenance of infrastructure are associated with permafrost thaw caused by climate change versus disturbance of permafrost due to other human activities; and 4) the degree to which climate change is causing Alaska to be a sink versus a source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.\r\n"^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045018>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/058cd073-9f08-4809-9522-451f48581dbf>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/ngeo1573>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0e2a44dc-cf4a-490b-ab13-8f1b8faa3cb7>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.03.005>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/269e8640-18d1-4f61-aa0f-55eb3fbea2d2>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1080/01431161.2011.643507>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2db000de-866a-4a94-96d9-4a778cc81bad>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.01.004>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3800bb8e-2dea-4285-9aaf-42f7eecc3e0d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02446.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/40707b8e-1def-49f8-bc7c-75355ef5a597>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s00267-008-9241-0>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/41fa8b2f-6581-4633-85d8-f7e3d3ff475a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s00382-007-0278-1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4920e8b8-02c6-48d6-9bb7-d466fda80871>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/480032a>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/509ac5ff-2189-49aa-b046-4ab9ea19d6ea>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/ppp.689>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5a612de8-a07d-48c0-a7ca-c4b705157070>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/ngeo1160>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/622eec71-9cca-4231-949d-a24ac34f45fa>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/265f7d08-202d-45a9-b29c-c9b8d7a85d90>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6a2437ca-35ac-44c4-bd6d-f38b69efdd6a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usgs-alaska-technicalregionreport-circular1379>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6e174e7d-28f7-4ce4-9141-c378d82b4f53>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/tcd-6-89-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/85521935-98c8-4946-a895-6dc3e3dce4d7>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1530(199901/03)10:1%3C17::AID-PPP303%3E3.0.CO;2-4>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9e5e3d14-8ead-4580-90ce-fc5549cc4c47>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-005-5352-2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ab52be13-af0f-4dad-ba10-db328e20159d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01113.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b5c9b9f8-3f13-4cb6-b4d6-e0b44cfe34c9>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1890/10-0896.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea92c82d-60a2-47e5-b48e-31b32ae85b6d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/alaska/finding/rising-permafrost-temperature-effects>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1890/08-2025.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fcc250cc-66a0-416f-aa0c-400c9d02e458>.