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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   dcterms:identifier "coastal-socioeconomic-disparities";
   gcis:findingNumber "25.3"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Socioeconomic disparities create uneven exposures and sensitivities to growing coastal risks and limit adaptation options for some coastal communities, resulting in the displacement of the most vulnerable people from coastal areas."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "A central component of the assessment process was a Chapter Lead Authors meeting held in St. Louis, Missouri in April 2012. The key messages were initially developed at this meeting. Key vulnerabilities were operationally defined as those challenges that can fundamentally undermine the functioning of human and natural coastal systems. They arise when these systems are highly exposed and sensitive to climate change and (given present or potential future adaptive capacities) insufficiently prepared or able to respond. The vulnerabilities that the team decided to focus on were informed by ongoing interactions of the author team with coastal managers, planners, and stakeholders, as well as a review of the existing literature. In addition, the author team conducted a thorough review of the technical input reports (TIR) and associated literature, including the coastal zone foundational TIR prepared for the National Climate Assessment (NCA). Chapter development was supported by numerous chapter author technical discussions via teleconference from April to June 2012."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The key message and supporting text summarize extensive evidence documented in the coastal zone technical input report. Technical input reports (68) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input, along with the extant literature.  Evidence base is moderate: assessment of the social vulnerability to coastal impacts of climate change is a comparatively new research focus in the United States, and clearly an advance since the prior NCA. There are currently multiple published, peer-reviewed studies, by different author teams, using different vulnerability metrics, which all reach the same conclusion: economically and socially vulnerable individuals and communities face significant coastal risks and have a lower adaptive capacity than less socially vulnerable populations. Studies have shown that the U.S. coastal population is growing  and have assessed the importance of this population for climate change exposure. The social factors that play key roles in coastal vulnerability are detailed in numerous publications.  There is an additional body of evidence emerging in the literature that also supports this key message, namely the growing literature on “barriers to adaptation,” particularly from studies conducted here in the United States. This literature reports on the limitations poorer communities face at present in beginning adaptation planning, and on the challenges virtually all communities face in prioritizing adaptation and moving from planning to implementation of adaptation options.  There is empirical evidence for how difficult it is for small, less wealthy communities (for example, the Native communities in Alaska or southern Louisiana) to obtain federal funds to relocate from eroding shorelines. Eligibility criteria (positive benefit-cost ratios) make it particularly difficult for low-income communities to obtain such funds; current federal budget constraints limit the available resources to support managed retreat and relocation. The recent economic hardship has placed constraints even on the richer coastal communities in the U.S. in developing and implementing adaptation strategies, for example in California. While the economic situation, funding priorities, or institutional mechanisms to provide support to socially vulnerable communities will not remain static over time, there is no reliable scientific evidence for how these factors may change in the future."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "We have high confidence in this conclusion, as it is based on well-accepted techniques, replicated in several place-based case studies, and on a nationwide analysis, using reliable Census data. Consistency in insights and conclusions in these studies, and in others across regions, sectors, and nations, add to the confidence. The conclusion does involve significant projection uncertainties, however, concerning where socially vulnerable populations will be located several decades from now. Sensitivity analysis of this factor, and overall a wider research base is needed, before a higher confidence assessment can be assigned."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "The body of research on this topic is largely new since the prior NCA in 2009. Each of the peer-reviewed studies discusses data gaps and methodological limitations, as well as the particular challenge of projecting demographic variables – a notoriously difficult undertaking – forward in time. While methods for population projections are well established (typically using housing projections), those, in turn, depend on more difficult to make assumptions about fertility, migration, household size, and travel times to urban areas. The conclusion is limited by uneven coverage of in-depth vulnerability studies; although those that do exist are consistent with and confirm the conclusions of a national study. This latter study was extended by applying the same approach, data sources, and methodology to regions previously not covered, thus closing important informational gaps (Hawai‘i, Alaska, the Great Lakes region). Data gaps remain for most coastal locations in the Pacific Islands, Puerto Rico, and other U.S. territories.  The most important limit on understanding is the current inability to project social vulnerability forward in time. While some social variables are more easily predicted (for example, age and gender distribution) than others (for example, income distribution, ethnic composition, and linguistic abilities), the predictive capability declines the further out projections aim (beyond 2030 or 2050). Further, it is particularly difficult to project these variables in specific places subject to coastal risks, as populations are mobile over time, and no existing model reliably predicts place-based demographics at the scale important to these analyses."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s11027-007-9132-3>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2f7da448-3778-4a00-ada5-e71c63dee873>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/gao-04-401t>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3268bd48-c8c0-4c28-afdb-281d35319c1d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0746-z>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/42269c56-1785-48ec-a81b-6eeb784de417>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/climateinduced-community-relocations-creating-an-adaptive-governance-framework-based-in-human-rights-doctrine>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/70dfc033-956a-400a-bc71-86379a7b7350>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/1540-6237.8402002>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/796c4617-7dcd-433e-bb0e-805cdab4c136>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1023/A:1009609710795>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7e30a623-2378-40b0-8295-729d582193ec>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/jointctr-climchenvchall-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/808ba10c-7b2e-4d68-910f-0a00c168c503>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/generic/38bff890-8583-4239-8bda-1fa491c83ac8>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/822df4d2-3a7d-450b-9924-5543158d5d08>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/uoregon-tribalclimch-2010>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8472db31-6ff4-47f2-8842-4173dcd58e4e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s11027-011-9356-0>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014033>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/urban-dc-spg-1-2007>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/generic/a9d419d8-6beb-4931-9768-cac918c09945>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/epa-800-r-10-001>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usgcrp-ti-coastal-impacts-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c9647af9-db7f-4f6a-89bd-2f2293ad26e5>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca2>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/coastal-zone/finding/coastal-socioeconomic-disparities>
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   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea43448c-4127-4757-8447-b71e95f65fce>.