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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   dcterms:identifier "animal-and-plant-mix-changing";
   gcis:findingNumber "8.3"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Landscapes and seascapes are changing rapidly, and species, including many iconic species, may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent or become extinct, altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and animal life will become almost unrecognizable."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "The key messages and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Ecosystems Technical Input Report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. This foundational report evolved from a technical workshop held at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in Palo Alto, CA, in January 2012 and attended by approximately 65 scientists. Technical inputs (127) on a wide range of topics related to ecosystems were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The analysis for the Technical Input Report applied a range of future climate scenarios and projected biome changes across 5% to about 20% of the land area in the U.S. by 2100. Other analyses support these projections. Studies predict that wildfire will be a major driver of change in some areas, including Yellowstone National Park and the Arctic. These biome shifts will be associated with changes in species distributions.\r\nEvidence indicates that the most obvious changes will occur at the boundaries between ecosystems. Plants and animals are already moving to higher elevations and latitudes in response to climate change, with models projecting greater range shifts and local extinctions in the future, leading to new plant and animal communities that may be unrecognizable in some regions. One study on fish used general circulation models (GCMs) simulating conditions in the 2040s and 2080s under the A1B emissions scenario, with the choice of models reflecting predictions of high and low climate warming as well as an ensemble of ten models. Their models additionally accounted for biotic interactions. In a second study, a 30-year baseline (1971-2000) and output from two GCMs under the A2 scenario (continued increases in global emissions) were used to develop climate variables that effectively predict present and future species ranges. Empirical data from the Sonoran Desert (n=39 plots) were used to evaluate species responses to past climate variability.\r\nIconic species:\r\nWildfire is expected to damage and kill iconic desert species, including saguaro cactus. Bark beetle outbreaks, which have been exacerbated by climate change, are damaging extensive areas of temperate and boreal conifer forests that are characteristic of the western United States.\r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Based on the evidence base and uncertainties, confidence is high that familiar landscapes are changing so rapidly that iconic species may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent, altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and animal life will become almost unrecognizable. Many changes in species distribution have already occurred and will inevitably continue, resulting in the loss of familiar landscapes and the production of novel species assemblages. "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "In addition to the Technical Input Report, more than 20 new studies of observed and predicted effects of climate change on biomes and species distribution were incorporated in the assessment.\r\nWhile changes in ecosystem structure and biodiversity, including the distribution of iconic species, are occurring and are highly likely to continue, the impact of these changes on ecosystem services is unclear, that is, there is uncertainty about the impact that loss of familiar landscapes will have on people.\r\n"^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1641/b580607>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0346508c-1b13-4e3e-a95d-33acaac2b2c1>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2007JG000453>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1e858aef-46f6-48bf-8b72-6d5c644f3551>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/37982de0-0e01-476f-b522-b8162d709134>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1103097108>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/38a94887-f469-4fce-8feb-75fc8e55568e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.0802891105>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3ce6e5b7-f100-4297-afb8-406dc87acf9d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.0708921105>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4460e4d4-aeeb-486f-98b3-2351ed9716ab>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/J.1365-2486.2004.00826.X>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/542f984c-bcf8-491a-8c37-01704d51b3c6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/expansion-of-forest-stands-into-tundra-in-the-noatak-national-preserve-northwest-alaska>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6d5d70b8-20b7-46ba-a2e9-d7e823968d0f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca-impactsclimchbiodiv-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/recent-changes-in-treeline-forest-distribution-and-structure-in-interior-alaska>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/74fe6007-5978-45e5-979f-00196e802167>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/buffelgrass-fuel-loads-in-saguaro-national-park-arizona-increase-fire-danger-and-threaten-native-species>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7615a633-6a5a-402f-b15d-4b8614136bac>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1890/08-0823.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7976d36f-4e34-4077-8a89-709b1405c107>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0065-1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/996a0410-30cf-4076-8ac1-db1fdf519445>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a34935d6-874d-4cef-ab70-e5d1e3d7e8ca>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0006825>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/acb5b618-25b4-40f9-9a11-354a5da90328>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2009jg001270>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b0873f6b-e2d0-47e5-8eeb-0f71e5af7f04>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1110199108>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1206432>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c849fdf7-2cee-4145-ac55-467df10a93b8>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d1806c0e-86c7-4fae-bec5-7f63677976e1>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01598.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dd45f904-52cb-41d0-940e-736bc89803e0>.