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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem>
   dcterms:identifier "fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem";
   gcis:findingNumber "8.1"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate water flows."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "The key messages and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Ecosystems Technical Input Report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. This foundational report evolved from a technical workshop held at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in Palo Alto, CA, in January 2012 and attended by approximately 65 scientists. Technical inputs (127) on a wide range of topics related to ecosystems were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The author team digested the contents of more than 125 technical input reports on a wide array of topics to arrive at this key message. The foundational Technical Input Report was the primary source used. \r\nStudies have shown that increasing precipitation is already resulting in declining water quality in many regions of the country, particularly by increasing nitrogen loading. This is because the increases in flow can pick up and carry greater loads of nutrients like nitrogen to rivers. \r\nOne model for the Mississippi River Basin, based on a doubling of CO2, projects that increasing discharge and nitrogen loading will lead to larger algal blooms in the Gulf of Mexico and a larger dead zone. The Gulf of Mexico is the recipient system for the Mississippi Basin, receiving all of the nitrogen that is carried downriver but not removed by river processes, wetlands, or other ecosystems.\r\nSeveral models project that declining streamflow, due to the combined effects of climate change and water withdrawals, will cause local extinctions of fish and other aquatic organisms, particularly trout in the interior western U.S. (composite of 10 models, A1B scenario). The trout study is one of the few studies of impacts on fish that uses an emissions scenario and a combination of climate models. The researchers studied four different trout species. Although there were variations among species, their overall conclusion was robust across species for the composite model.\r\nWater quality can also be negatively affected by increasing temperatures. There is widespread evidence that warmer lakes can promote the growth of harmful algal blooms, which produce toxins. \r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Given the evidence base and uncertainties, there is high confidence that climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate water flows.\r\nIt is well established that precipitation and associated river discharge are major drivers of water pollution in the form of excess nutrients, sediment, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) transport into rivers. Increases in precipitation in many regions of the country are therefore contributing to declines in water quality in those areas. However, those areas of the country that will see reduced precipitation may experience water-quality improvement; thus, any lack of agreement on future water-quality impacts of climate change may be due to locational differences.\r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "(for example, fertilization) on nitrogen losses from watersheds, and how the interactions between climate and human actions (for example, water withdrawals) will affect fish populations in the west. However, few studies have projected the impacts of future climate change on water quality. Given the tight link between river discharge and pollutants, only areas of the U.S. that are projected to see increases in precipitation will see increases in pollutant transport to rivers. It is also important to note that pollutant loading – for example, nitrogen fertilizer use – is often more important as a driver of water pollution than climate. "^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.0992>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0c7283dc-9cfb-4669-b0ec-0e81c7285bd5>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/Science.1155398>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/11b14f32-9d24-45c2-b953-d8a57cbab116>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1890/100178>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2513bdf8-409d-4564-a569-490457fad85b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.seares.2005.02.008>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2def4038-abbc-43aa-b816-c8b195e2cf5b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1103097108>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/38a94887-f469-4fce-8feb-75fc8e55568e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10533-006-9010-1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5cb1fd05-b566-4048-9989-c49553b77755>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca-impactsclimchbiodiv-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02372.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9dc780be-c325-40c4-a7ea-4846b7c53b59>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10533-009-9307-y>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c0431825-7915-41e6-adbe-09285acf9168>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.2134/jeq2002.1610>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f68f6208-6991-4325-8854-881c76072096>.