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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   dcterms:identifier "reduced-forest-co2-uptake";
   gcis:findingNumber "7.2"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "U.S. forests and associated wood products currently absorb and store the equivalent of about 16% of all carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) emitted by fossil fuel burning in the U.S. each year. Climate change, combined with current societal trends in land use and forest management, is projected to reduce this rate of forest CO₂ uptake."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "Very High. There is very high confidence that under projected climate changes there is high risk (high risk = high probability and high consequence) that western forests in the United States will be affected increasingly by large and intense fires that occur more frequently. This is based on the strong relationships between climate and forest response, shown observationally and experimentally. Expected responses will increase substantially to warming and also in conjunction with other changes such as an increase in the frequency and/or severity of drought and amplification of pest and pathogen impacts. Eastern forests are less likely to experience immediate increases in wildfire unless/until a point is reached at which warmer temperatures, concurrent with seasonal dry periods or more protracted drought, trigger wildfires."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in the TIR, “Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector.” Technical input reports (58) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nA recent study has shown that forests are a big sink of CO2 nationally. However, the permanence of this carbon sink is contingent on forest disturbance rates, which are changing, and on economic conditions that may accelerate harvest of forest biomass. Market response can cause changes in the carbon source/sink dynamics through shifts in forest age, land-use changes and urbanization that reduce forested areas, forest type changes, and bioenergy development changing forest management. Additionally, publications have reported that fires can convert a forest into a shrubland or meadow, with frequent fires permanently reducing the carbon stock.\r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Based on the evidence and uncertainties, confidence is high that climate change, combined with current societal trends regarding land use and forest management, is projected to reduce forest CO2 uptake in the U.S. The U.S. has already seen large-scale shifts in forest cover due to interactions between forestland use and agriculture (for example, between the onset of European settlement to the present). There are competing demands for how forestland is used today. The future role of U.S. forests in the carbon cycle will be affected by climate change through changes in disturbances (Key Message 1), growth rates, and harvest demands."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "That economic factors and societal choices will affect future carbon cycle of forests is known with certainty; the major uncertainties come from the future economic picture, accelerating disturbance rates, and societal responses to those dynamics."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ornl-tm-2011-224>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0169e20a-8550-4435-8db2-b149a7d1d94d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/bioenergy-sustainability-at-the-regional-scale>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/154cffb6-4cf1-4b1f-8fee-a910cfaed3a0>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1163886>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1639ecca-a0ca-48f4-b64c-a447fe137284>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/epa-greenhousegasinventory-1990-2011>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1c8d310f-ee58-4c1f-836b-c1fc613d198b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01877.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1d17a757-d02f-4259-ae58-6e91ae9e9415>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usfs-gtr-wo-87>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2545714a-f4ac-48f4-8c8f-b0954f3cfef6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate1693>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/298cdb3f-64e7-4ac9-814c-f8deefbf964b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1890/07-1183.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/391560e0-40c1-4f9d-b063-e87d18c87e02>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1071/WF07148>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/517021ad-7515-4d23-8b25-735f52448514>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.0914211107>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5ba92ba4-eb88-480e-91de-a442b293e649>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usfs-pnw-gtr-870>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1890/1051-0761(2002)012%5B0891:FCSITN%5D2.0.CO;2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/97be2553-2941-4e54-8a88-a2d9d6ca1434>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1110199108>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1021/es2030142>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cefd546d-c937-47a1-81b4-6583558a910f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.11.005>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dd77d60a-0b9f-4a5f-bb8b-41bba86a5ddc>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.06.001>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e7ba5143-b62a-479e-872c-5b5538124c63>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.0901438106>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e9b2f293-1699-4bee-99b7-0d2fd93d267d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/epa-430-r-05-006>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f53bd33b-97d5-4027-a30c-54fd714563ea>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/reduced-forest-co2-uptake>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.06019.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fd76d9bc-754a-4d3e-b9ff-641ed3be2648>.