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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   dcterms:identifier "effects-of-human-island-migration";
   gcis:findingNumber "23.5"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Mounting threats to food and water security, infrastructure, and public health and safety are expected to lead to increasing human migration from low to high elevation islands and continental sites, making it increasingly difficult for Pacific Islanders to sustain the region’s many unique customs, beliefs, and languages."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "A central component of the assessment process was convening three focus area workshops as part of the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA). The PIRCA is a collaborative effort aimed at assessing the state of climate knowledge, impacts, and adaptive capacity in Hawai‘i and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands. These workshops included representatives from the U.S. federal agencies, universities, as well as international participants from other national agencies and regional organizations. The workshops led to the formulation of a foundational Technical Input Report (TIR). The report consists of nearly 140 pages, with almost 300 references, and was organized into 5 chapters by 11 authors. \r\nThe chapter author team engaged in multiple technical discussions via regular teleconferences that permitted a careful review of the foundational TIR and of approximately 23 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as the other published literature, and professional judgment. These discussions included a face-to-face meeting held on July 9, 2012. These discussions were supported by targeted consultation among the lead and contributing authors of each message. There were several iterations of review and comment on draft key messages and associated content."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "Climate change threatens communities, cultures, and ecosystems of the Pacific Islands both directly through impact on food and water security, for example, as well as indirectly through impacts on economic sectors including fisheries and tourism.  \r\nOn most islands, increased temperatures, coupled with decreased rainfall and increased drought, will lead to an additional need for freshwater resources for drinking and crop irrigation. This is particularly important for locations in the tropics and subtropics where observed data and model projections suggest that, by the end of this century, the average growing season temperatures will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. Atolls will be particularly vulnerable due to their low elevation, small land mass, geographic isolation, and limited potable water sources and agricultural resources. The situation will also be exacerbated by the increased incidence of intrusion of saltwater from the ocean during storms as the mean sea level rises over time. These are but part of a cascade of impacts that will increase the pressures on, and threats to, the social and ecosystem sustainability of these island communities. On high islands like Hawai‘i, decreases in precipitation and baseflow are already indicating that there will be impacts on freshwater ecosystems and aquatic species and on water-intensive sectors such as agriculture and tourism.\r\nIncreasing mean oceanic and coastal water levels and the possibility of more frequent extreme water level events with flooding and erosion, will escalate the threat to coastal structures and property, groundwater reservoirs, harbor operations, airports, wastewater systems, sandy beaches, coral reef ecosystems, and other social and economic resources. Impacts will vary with location depending on how natural sea level variability combines with modest increases of mean levels. On low-lying atolls, critical public facilities and infrastructure as well as private commercial and residential property are especially vulnerable. Agricultural activity will also be affected, as sea level rise decreases the land area available for farming and episodic inundation increases salinity of groundwater resources. \r\nWith respect to cultural resources, impacts will extend from the loss of tangible artifacts and structures to the intangible loss of a land base and the cultural traditions that are associated with it.\r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Evidence for climate change and impacts is strong, but highly variable from location to location. One can be highly confident that climate change will continue to pose varied threats in the region. Adaptive capacity is also highly variable among the islands, so the resulting situation will play out differently in different places. Confidence is therefore medium. "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Whenever appraising threats to human society, it is uncertain the degree to which societies will successfully adapt to limit impact. For island communities, though, the ability to migrate is very limited, and the ability to adapt is especially limited. Depending on the scale and distance of the migration, a variety of challenges face the migrants and the communities receiving them. Migrants need to establish themselves in their new community, find employment, and access services, while the receiving community’s infrastructure, labor market, commerce, natural resources, and governance structures need to absorb a sudden burst of population growth."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1099619>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/06f42044-ef11-45ad-8df5-4eabf2cd4e2f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/waterworld-the-heritage-dimensions-of-climate-change-in-the-pacific>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/11cbe03d-0255-4abb-9b77-498e9ebd4500>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004559.08755.88>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/15a85bcf-1235-4258-860c-24948df66935>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar4-wg2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6aa21d2e-f2dc-45b6-9815-bf1132eba02c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1023/A:1016124032231>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6eb1ee99-0b99-452a-a8cb-48b961fd4ac5>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/2012-pirca>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6fd7abfe-17d7-49a9-bc90-bf85fa4041d3>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/2012-pirca>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7350d7b3-6e95-4375-ba23-26756b441fc2>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usgs-sciinvesrep-2004-5080>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a7bc5b58-4952-4499-9285-af61da992262>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/65b7186c-9037-42ad-ad3e-2dd73f82803b>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c600849a-ed32-4109-a103-1571e136f0b6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/d74e99dc-8740-4014-942a-72e0b6e8c35b>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ca2a1adf-0f5a-4838-aa81-fc0c44f50369>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/effects-of-human-island-migration>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s00338-011-0723-9>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dcfdf5ac-81c1-4eed-ae50-258a9086b9b5>.