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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   dcterms:identifier "rising-sea-water-damages";
   gcis:findingNumber "23.4"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Rising sea levels, coupled with high water levels caused by tropical and extra-tropical storms, will incrementally increase coastal flooding and erosion, damaging coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, and agriculture, and negatively affecting tourism. "^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "A central component of the assessment process was convening three focus area workshops as part of the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA). The PIRCA is a collaborative effort aimed at assessing the state of climate knowledge, impacts, and adaptive capacity in Hawai‘i and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands. These workshops included representatives from the U.S. federal agencies, universities, as well as international participants from other national agencies and regional organizations. The workshops led to the formulation of a foundational Technical Input Report (TIR). The report consists of nearly 140 pages, with almost 300 references, and was organized into 5 chapters by 11 authors. \r\nThe chapter author team engaged in multiple technical discussions via regular teleconferences that permitted a careful review of the foundational TIR and of approximately 23 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as the other published literature, and professional judgment. These discussions included a face-to-face meeting held on July 9, 2012. These discussions were supported by targeted consultation among the lead and contributing authors of each message. There were several iterations of review and comment on draft key messages and associated content."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "Description of evidence base\r\nAll of the scientific approaches to detecting sea level rise come to the conclusion that a warming planet will result in higher sea levels. Recent studies give higher sea level rise projections than those projected in 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the rest of this century (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 10).\r\nSea level is rising and is expected to continue to rise. Over the past few decades, global mean sea level, as measured by satellite altimetry, has been rising at an average rate of twice the estimated rate for the previous century, based on tide gauge measurements, with models suggesting that global sea level will rise significantly over the course of this century. Regionally, the highest increases have been observed in the western tropical Pacific. However, the current high rates of regional sea level rise in the western tropical Pacific are not expected to persist, as regional sea level will fall in response to a change in phase of natural variability. Regional variations in sea level at interannual and interdecadal time scales are generally attributed to changes in prevailing wind patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and low frequency components of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). \r\nFor the region, extreme sea level events generally occur when high tides combine with some non-tidal residual change in water level.  In the major typhoon zones (Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands), storm-driven surges can cause coastal flooding and erosion regardless of tidal state. Wave-driven inundation events are a major concern for all islands in the region. At present, trends in extreme levels tend to follow trends in mean sea level.\r\nIncreasing mean water levels and the possibility of more frequent extreme water level events, and their manifestation as flooding and erosion, will threaten coastal structures and property, groundwater reservoirs, harbor operations, airports, wastewater systems, sandy beaches, coral reef ecosystems, and other social and economic resources.  Impacts will vary with location, depending on how natural sea level variability combines with modest increases of mean levels.\r\nOn low-lying atolls, critical public facilities and infrastructure as well as private commercial and residential property are especially vulnerable. Agricultural activity will also be affected, as sea level rise decreases the land area available for farming and episodic inundation increases salinity of groundwater resources. Impacts to the built environment on low-lying portions of high islands will be much the same as those experienced on low islands. Islands with more developed built infrastructure will experience more economic impacts from tourism loss. One report stated: “Our analyses estimate that nearly $2.0 billion in overall visitor expenditures could be lost annually due to a complete erosion of Waikīkī Beach.”\r\nCoastal and nearshore environments (sandy beaches, shallow coral reefs, seagrass beds, intertidal flats, and mangrove forests) and the vegetation and terrestrial animals in these systems will progressively be affected as sea level rise and high wave events alter atoll island size and shape and reduce habitat features necessary for survival. Based on extrapolation from results in American Samoa, sea level rise could cause future reductions of 10%–20% of total regional mangrove area over the next century. Further, atoll-breeding Pacific seabirds will lose large segments of their breeding populations<tbib"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Evidence for global sea level rise is strong (Ch. 25: Coasts; Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate). Confidence is therefore very high. Modeling studies have yielded conflicting results as to how ENSO and other climate modes will vary in the future.  As a result, there is low confidence in the prediction of future climate states and their subsequent influence on regional sea level. Recent assessments of future extreme conditions generally place low confidence on region-specific projections of future storminess.\r\nFor aspects of the key message concerning impacts, confidence is high. \r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Sea levels in the Pacific Ocean will continue to rise with global sea level. Models provide a range of predictions, with some suggesting that global warming may raise global sea level considerably over the course of this century. The range of predictions is large due in part to unresolved physical understanding of various processes, notably ice sheet dynamics.   Changes in prevailing wind patterns associated with natural climate cycles such as ENSO and the PDO affect regional variations in sea level at interannual and interdecadal time scales. Sea level at specific locales will continue to respond to changes in phase of these natural climate cycles. The current high rates of regional sea level rise in the western tropical Pacific are not expected to persist over time, falling once the trade winds begin to weaken.  Future wind wave conditions are difficult to project with confidence given the uncertainties regarding future storm conditions. "^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2012GL052032>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0fd3c22b-8b49-472d-959c-92c4742ac794>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2011gl049576>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1c00ae8a-ba2d-464d-9f3a-a353404c4baf>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-srex>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5138b20c-7049-433e-a1ec-24417cccd3c2>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar4-wg2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6aa21d2e-f2dc-45b6-9815-bf1132eba02c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/2012-pirca>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6fd7abfe-17d7-49a9-bc90-bf85fa4041d3>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/2012-pirca>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7350d7b3-6e95-4375-ba23-26756b441fc2>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1080/01490419.2010.491031>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7b7ffcb0-766c-43b3-ac22-db29fbffef71>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/hospitalityllc-eia-2008>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a02dcc41-9b79-4564-89af-fcdad699e5d3>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/cp-8-787-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ca7d7630-6134-49a5-b933-7de9417ace1b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.09.004>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cc032910-1557-4eb7-ac24-d183ad14a8da>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/2010JCLI3519.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cef33c87-edde-4bbd-bd8c-325ae895cace>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.aquabot.2007.12.009>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/da5a93c8-9c73-45f7-966f-5b1970fec7a4>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/hawaii/finding/rising-sea-water-damages>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar4-wg1/chapter/ar4-wg1-spm>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f83b5613-7609-4799-ab8c-c2a41bdc924c>.