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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/mitigation/finding/limit-carbon-dioxide-emission-need>
   dcterms:identifier "limit-carbon-dioxide-emission-need";
   gcis:findingNumber "27.2"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "To meet the lower emissions scenario (B1) used in this assessment, global mitigation actions would need to limit global carbon dioxide emissions to a peak of around 44 billion tons per year within the next 25 years and decline thereafter. In 2011, global emissions were around 34 billion tons, and have been rising by about 0.9 billion tons per year for the past decade. Therefore, the world is on a path to exceed 44 billion tons per year within a decade."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/mitigation>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "Evaluation of literature by Coordinating Lead Authors"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "A large number of emissions scenarios have been modeled, with a number of publications showing what would be required to limit CO2 to any predetermined limit. At current concentrations and rate of rise, the emissions of CO2 would need to peak around 44 billion tons within the next 25 years in order to stabilize concentrations as in the B1 scenario. Given the rate of increase in recent years, this limit is expected to be surpassed."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "The confidence in the conclusion is high. This is a contingent conclusion, though – we do not have high confidence that the current emission rate will be sustained.  However, we do have high confidence that if we do choose to limit concentrations as in the B1 scenario, emissions will need to peak soon and then decline. "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Uncertainties about the carbon cycle could affect these calculations, but the largest uncertainties are the assumptions made about the strength and cost of greenhouse gas emissions policies."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/mitigation/finding/limit-carbon-dioxide-emission-need>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/eia-ieo2011>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/49c48c84-0b97-49cd-a28e-70edc9cbda24>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/mitigation/finding/limit-carbon-dioxide-emission-need>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ccsp-sap-2_1a-2007>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6ac1aea5-6b76-46e1-822e-664cb3d11e9a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/mitigation/finding/limit-carbon-dioxide-emission-need>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/webpage/955a4474-2314-4b6e-aef6-a731963f3257>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7b0489fe-3bdf-4744-ae47-f0e48d53a7d2>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/mitigation/finding/limit-carbon-dioxide-emission-need>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bfd356e4-1e09-47b2-b618-218f59c7d5d3>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/mitigation/finding/limit-carbon-dioxide-emission-need>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d6ca431b-0c90-40e6-bb8d-47e5e293198a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/mitigation/finding/limit-carbon-dioxide-emission-need>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/globalcarbonproject-tenyrs-2010>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/da606b84-6d9a-4d7c-9bc0-73a22c1fca43>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/mitigation/finding/limit-carbon-dioxide-emission-need>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nature08823>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f15c9312-9b5a-412f-837d-d119e39407a6>.