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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   dcterms:identifier "heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge";
   gcis:findingNumber "16.1"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Heat waves, coastal flooding, and river flooding will pose a growing challenge to the region’s environmental, social, and economic systems. This will increase the vulnerability of the region’s residents, especially its most disadvantaged populations. "^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "Results of the Northeast Regional Climate assessment workshop that was held on November 17-18, 2011, at Columbia University, with approximately 60 attendees, were critically important in our assessment. The workshop was the beginning of the process that led to the foundational Technical Input Report (TIR). That 313-page report consisted of seven chapters by 13 lead authors and more than 60 authors in total. Public and private citizens or institutions who service and anticipate a role in maintaining support for vulnerable populations in Northeast cities and communities indicated that they are making plans to judge the demand for adaptation services. These stakeholder interactions were surveyed and engaged in the preparation of this chapter. We are confident that the TIR authors made a vigorous attempt to engage various agencies at the state level and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that have broader perspectives. \r\nThe author team engaged in multiple technical discussions via teleconferences, which included careful review of the foundational TIR and approximately 50 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as the other published literature and professional judgment. Discussions were followed by expert deliberation of draft key messages by the authors and targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each key message."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in the Northeast Technical Input Report. Nearly 50 Technical Input reports, on a wide range of topics, were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nNumerous peer-reviewed publications (including many that are not cited) describe increasing hazards associated with sea level rise and storm surge, heat waves, and intense precipitation and river flooding for the Northeast. For sea level rise (SLR), the authors relied on the NCA SLR scenario and research by the authors on the topic (for example, Horton et al. 2010). Recent work summarizes the literature on heat islands and extreme events. For a recent study on climate in the Northeast, the authors worked closely with the region’s state climatologists on both the climatology and projections. \r\nThe authors also considered many recent peer-reviewed publications that describe how human vulnerabilities to climate hazards in the region can be increased by socioeconomic and other factors. Evaluating coupled multi-system vulnerabilities is an emerging field; as a result, additional sources including white papers have informed this key message as well.\r\nTo capture key issues, concerns, and opportunities in the region, various regional assessments were also consulted, such as PlaNYC (http://www.nyc.gov/html/planyc2030) and Boston’s Climate Plan (http://www.cityofboston.gov/Images_Documents/A%20Climate%20of%20Progress%20-%20CAP%20Update%202011_tcm3-25020.pdf). \r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is: \r\nVery high for sea level rise and coastal flooding as well as heat waves.\r\nHigh for intense precipitation events and riverine flooding. \r\nVery high for both added stresses on environmental, social, and economic systems and for increased vulnerability, especially for populations that are already most disadvantaged.\r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Important new evidence (cited above) confirmed many of the findings from a prior Northeast assessment (see http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/northeast). \r\nThe evidence included results from improved models and updated observational data (for example, Liu et al. 2012; Parris et al. 2012; Sallenger et al. 2012). The current assessment included insights from stakeholders collected in a series of distributed engagement meetings that confirm its relevance and significance for local decision-makers; examples include a Northeast Listening Session in West Virginia, a kickoff meeting in New York City, and New York City Panel on Climate Change meetings. \r\nThere is wide diversity of impacts across the region driven by both exposure and sensitivity that are location and socioeconomic context specific. Future vulnerability will be influenced by changes in demography, economics, and policies (development and climate driven) that are difficult to predict and dependent on international and national considerations. Another uncertainty is the potential for adaptation strategies (and to a lesser extent mitigation) to reduce these vulnerabilities.\r\nThere are also uncertainties associated with the character of the interconnections among systems, and the positive and negative synergies. For example, a key uncertainty is how systems will respond during extreme events and how people will adjust their short- to long-term planning to take account of a dynamic climate. Such events are, by definition, manifestations of historically rare and therefore relatively undocumented climatology which represent uncertainty in the exposure to climate risk. Nonetheless, these events are correlated, when considered holistically, with climate change driven to some degree by human interference with the climate system. There are uncertainties in exposure. \r\nThere are also uncertainties associated with sensitivity to future changes driven to some (potentially significant) degree by non-climate stressors, including background health of the human population and development decisions. Other uncertainties include how much effort will be put into making systems more resilient and the success of these efforts. Another critical uncertainty is associated with the climate system "^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05323.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/037b0db1-43d9-41dc-af2e-f824b32abf27>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.2105/Ajph.2006.102947>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/04f852ec-7b1e-4fd0-a517-283b25468694>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.amepre.2011.04.017>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/13baa2f8-b25e-4372-91c8-3c76e0c8dc07>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/epa-430-b-06-005>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1ad525a6-0534-429f-a984-8cc7ee248758>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-techreport-nesdis-142-1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2acefcdc-827f-4c52-a4d8-56fc73f8ed35>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nyserda-report-11-18>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4167ecf8-f307-4cb9-ac96-8f0a22b5b72a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate1597>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/480ff362-8434-4861-a8bb-2dc6615bdcdc>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca-climchne-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5f2be58e-4fcf-439c-bba8-1ed29be711fe>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1289/ehp.1103456>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/618edb7b-6c2f-4bee-899f-d52bb44743a0>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s00704-007-0368-3>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6de60d34-38f5-425e-ab86-9ba459c2fafe>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1114910109>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/736c24a5-149a-4d5b-88c5-e729af8c3b0c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-techmemo-oar-cpo-1-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d8089822-678e-4834-a1ec-0dca1da35314>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1097/EDE.0b013e318245c61c>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dd072932-2da1-4e6c-b18a-6f7649969625>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/northeast/finding/heat-and-flooding-growing-challenge>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-09-00076.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fb974b33-39d4-4430-88ea-1355120db253>.