finding 24.5 : climate-change-affects-ocean-uses

Climate changes that result in conditions substantially different from recent history may significantly increase costs to businesses as well as disrupt public access and enjoyment of ocean areas.

This finding is from chapter 24 of Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment.

Process for developing key messages: A central component of the assessment process was the Oceans and Marine Resources Climate assessment workshop that was held January 23-24, 2012, at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Silver Spring, MD, and simultaneously, via web teleconference, at NOAA in Seattle, WA. In the workshop, nearly 30 participants took part in a series of scoping presentations and breakout sessions that began the process leading to a foundational Technical Input Report (TIR) entitled “Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment.”018aba6e-7bff-4124-ae9a-f2521e683bd1 The report, consisting of nearly 220 pages of text organized into 7 sections with numerous subsections and more than 1200 references, was assembled by 122 authors representing governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, tribes, and other entities. The chapter author team engaged in multiple technical discussions via teleconferences that permitted a careful review of the foundational TIR018aba6e-7bff-4124-ae9a-f2521e683bd1 and of approximately 25 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as the other published literature, and professional judgment. The chapter author team met at Conservation International in Arlington, VA on 3-4 May 2012 for expert deliberation of draft key messages by the authors, wherein each message was defended before the entire author team before the key message was selected for inclusion in the report. These discussions were supported by targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each message to help define “key vulnerabilities.”

Description of evidence base: The key message is supported by extensive evidence documented in the Oceans Technical Input Report018aba6e-7bff-4124-ae9a-f2521e683bd1 and additional technical inputs received as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input, as well as stakeholder engagement leading up to drafting the chapter. Many peer-reviewed publications describe the predicted impacts of climate change on tourism and recreation industries and their associated infrastructure.804b8cfd-5b1f-4a0f-b0df-6fac0742917a 5619eb6b-92e4-459f-9879-798c7ce99faf 43da51bd-b161-4454-8a9a-cefff6c0d3af

New information and remaining uncertainties: Given the complexity of transportation, resource use and extraction, and leisure and tourism activities, there are large uncertainties in impacts in specific locales or for individual activities. Some businesses and communities may be able to adapt rapidly, others less so. Infrastructure impacts of climate change will also be an important part of the ability of businesses, communities, and the public to adapt.

Assessment of confidence based on evidence: As with many other impacts of climate change, the evidence that change is occurring is very strong but the resultant impacts are still uncertain. For all of these human uses, and the associated costs and disruption, the evidence is suggestive and confidence medium on the effects of the ongoing changes in ocean conditions.

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