finding 24.4 : sea-surface-temp-up-increase-disease

Rising sea surface temperatures have been linked with increasing levels and ranges of diseases in humans and in marine life, including corals, abalones, oysters, fishes, and marine mammals.

This finding is from chapter 24 of Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment.

Process for developing key messages: A central component of the assessment process was the Oceans and Marine Resources Climate assessment workshop that was held January 23-24, 2012, at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Silver Spring, MD, and simultaneously, via web teleconference, at NOAA in Seattle, WA. In the workshop, nearly 30 participants took part in a series of scoping presentations and breakout sessions that began the process leading to a foundational Technical Input Report (TIR) entitled “Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment.”018aba6e-7bff-4124-ae9a-f2521e683bd1 The report, consisting of nearly 220 pages of text organized into 7 sections with numerous subsections and more than 1200 references, was assembled by 122 authors representing governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, tribes, and other entities. The chapter author team engaged in multiple technical discussions via teleconferences that permitted a careful review of the foundational TIR018aba6e-7bff-4124-ae9a-f2521e683bd1 and of approximately 25 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as the other published literature, and professional judgment. The chapter author team met at Conservation International in Arlington, VA on 3-4 May 2012 for expert deliberation of draft key messages by the authors, wherein each message was defended before the entire author team before the key message was selected for inclusion in the report. These discussions were supported by targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each message to help define “key vulnerabilities.”

Description of evidence base: The key message is supported by extensive evidence in the Oceans Technical Input Report018aba6e-7bff-4124-ae9a-f2521e683bd1 and additional technical inputs received as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input, as well as stakeholder engagement leading up to drafting the chapter. As noted in the chapter, the references document increased levels and ranges of disease coincident with rising temperatures.5a0265eb-17cf-4872-b96a-5b38e685cf66 07709e73-c331-4953-a578-909aa80ae86e 2dcec73a-c9eb-4f23-9182-ac6bd27e716c 5ab374b7-c974-45aa-9986-2aacb9ada5bb 8a3a7060-f48a-4744-9374-082f41569f4f f6756660-773c-43d7-a595-77f6faececae

New information and remaining uncertainties: The interactions among host, environment, and pathogen are complex, which makes it challenging to separate warming due to climate change from other causes of disease outbreaks in the ocean.

Assessment of confidence based on evidence: There is high confidence that disease outbreaks and levels are increasing, and that this increase is linked to increasing temperatures. Again, there is substantial local to regional variation but the overall pattern seems consistent.

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