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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   dcterms:identifier "climate-change-shifts-rural-economy";
   gcis:findingNumber "14.1"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Rural communities are highly dependent upon natural resources for their livelihoods and social structures. Climate change related impacts are currently affecting rural communities. These impacts will progressively increase over this century and will shift the locations where rural economic activities (like agriculture, forestry, and recreation) can thrive."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "The key messages were initially developed at a meeting of the authors in Charleston, South Carolina, in February, 2012. This initial discussion was supported by a series of conference calls from March through June, 2012. These ensuing discussions were held after a thorough review of the technical inputs and associated literature, including the Rural Communities Workshop Report prepared for the NCA and additional technical inputs on a variety of topics."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in the Rural Communities Workshop Report. Thirty one technical input reports on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nEvidence that the impacts of climate change are increasing is compelling and widespread. This evidence is based on historical records and observations and on global climate models, including those driven by B1 (substantial emissions reduction) and A2 (continued increases in global emissions) scenarios. This evidence is clearly summarized and persuasively referenced in the “Our Changing Climate” chapter of this Assessment and in the Scenarios developed for the NCA. \r\nThe dependency of rural communities on their natural resources has been demonstrated, with a number of studies showing that climate change results in crop and livestock loss, infrastructure damage to levees and roads, shifts in agriculture practices, and losses due to disasters. A number of publications project these impacts to increase, with effects on the natural environment and increased competition for water between agriculture and energy. Studies have projected that tourism locations in the Everglades and Florida Keys are threatened. Meanwhile, Maine’s tourism could increase, which coincides with a projected northern shift in outdoor recreation. Hunting, fishing, and bird watching will be affected by beach erosion and wetland loss, and changing plant and animal habitats and inter-species relationships (see also Ch. 8: Ecosystems). Outdoor recreation and tourism in many areas in the U.S. are affected by early snowpack melt.\r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Given the evidence and uncertainties, there is very high confidence that rural communities are highly dependent on natural resources that are expected to be affected by climate change, especially the many communities that rely on farming, forestry or tourism for their livelihoods.\r\nGiven the evidence and uncertainties, there is high confidence that climate change is currently affecting rural communities.\r\nGiven the evidence and uncertainties, there is very high confidence that impacts will increase (See Ch 2: Our Changing Climate).\r\nGiven the evidence and uncertainties, there is high confidence about shifts in locations of economic activities.\r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Key remaining uncertainties relate to the precise magnitude, timing, and location of impacts at regional and local scales."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-techreport-nesdis-142-9>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0ebef171-4903-4aa6-b436-2936da69f84e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.foreco.2008.12.002>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/289c601b-12f8-4165-99a2-10e0dd699f8b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.2489/jswc.66.4.118A>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/443cb593-4f06-425b-9da9-bc74fc513caf>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/gdae-flclimch-2007>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4f66bdc2-d5be-47af-a3ef-77ba93ac69d0>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca-waterresourcessector-2013>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/50d47cc1-5a16-4f5c-bb08-bf6f475a5bb8>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/webpage/5fe65558-d010-445b-b4f1-9079224dca6b>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/57430e1e-9f81-4d9b-a79a-65c280867f87>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1046/j.1526-0984.2000.71006.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5ce7b832-31a7-4424-8941-7a32047324eb>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2003gl018624>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/62d10db5-18f0-431e-93b5-b724d14a9fe7>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s11027-011-9295-9>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/75a38932-a8a4-4eeb-b94c-bbb65b580efe>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ccsp-sap-5_3-2008>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7c682011-cf93-406c-80c4-85147eab2d7c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/58156695-3a4f-400f-9096-7e189b67cd32>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9051aa9f-e32e-48a5-9696-b1771064883d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ccsp-sap-4_5-2008>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bfcd7b78-2ac7-49ae-a72a-36701da3381b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usgcrp-ti-coastal-impacts-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c9647af9-db7f-4f6a-89bd-2f2293ad26e5>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1128834>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e1e1f3a0-9fea-4ad2-a3af-575716f9849e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1177/0047287506295937>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e29cd9c1-b7af-4427-8daf-0bf1a51e289d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca-techreport-rural-2012>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e49f5471-72a0-4922-ade9-d1f5bafcf68b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/rural/finding/climate-change-shifts-rural-economy>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f03c8590-8b20-442a-a603-dee6c3bf70e1>.