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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   dcterms:identifier "climate-change-increases-wildfires";
   gcis:findingNumber "20.3"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Increased warming, drought, and insect outbreaks, all caused by or linked to climate change, have increased wildfires and impacts to people and ecosystems in the Southwest. Fire models project more wildfire and increased risks to communities across extensive areas."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "A central component of the assessment process was the Southwest Regional Climate assessment workshop that was held August 1-4, 2011, in Denver, CO with more than 80 participants in a series of scoping presentations and workshops.  The workshop began the process leading to a foundational Technical Input Report (TIR) report. The TIR consists of nearly 800 pages organized into 20 chapters that were assembled by 122 authors representing a wide range of inputs, including governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, tribes, and other entities. The report findings were described in a town hall meeting at the American Geophysical Union’s annual fall meeting in 2011, and feedback was collected and incorporated into the draft. \r\nThe chapter author team engaged in multiple technical discussions through more than 15 biweekly teleconferences that permitted a careful review of the foundational TIR and of approximately 125 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as the other published literature and professional judgment. The chapter author team then met at the University of Southern California on March 27-28, 2012, for expert deliberation of draft key messages by the authors. Each key message was defended before the entire author team prior to the key message being selected for inclusion. These discussions were supported by targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each message, and they were based on criteria that help define “key vulnerabilities, which include magnitude, timing, persistence and reversibility, likelihood and confidence, potential for adaptation, distribution, and importance of the vulnerable system.”"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "Increased warming and drought are extensively described in the foundational Technical Input Report (TIR). U.S. temperatures have increased and are expected to continue to rise (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 3). There have been regional changes in droughts, and there are observed and projected changes in cold and heat waves and droughts (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 7) for the nation. A study for the Southwest discusses trends and scenarios in both cold waves and heat waves. \r\nAnalyses of weather station data from the Southwest have detected changes from 1950 to 2005 that favor wildfire, and statistical analyses have attributed the changes to anthropogenic climate change. The changes include increased temperatures, reduced snowpack, earlier spring warmth, and streamflow. These climate changes have increased background tree mortality rates from 1955 to 2007 in old-growth conifer forests in California, Colorado, Utah, and the northwestern states and caused extensive piñon pine mortality in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah between 1989 and 2003.\r\nClimate factors contributed to increases in wildfire in the previous century. In mid-elevation conifer forests of the western United States, increases in spring and summer temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and longer summers increased fire frequency by 400% and burned area by 650% from 1970 to 2003. Multivariate analysis of wildfire across the western U.S. from 1916 to 2003 indicates that climate was the dominant factor controlling burned area, even during periods of human fire suppression. Reconstruction of fires of the past 400 to 3000 years in the western U.S. and in Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks in California confirm that temperature and drought are the dominant factors explaining fire occurrence.\r\nFour different fire models project increases in fire frequency across extensive areas of the Southwest in this century. Multivariate statistical generalized additive models project extensive increases across the Southwest, but the models project decreases when assuming that climate alters patterns of net primary productivity. Logistic regressions project increases across most of California, except for some southern parts of the state, with average fire frequency increasing 37% to 74%. Linear regression models project up to a doubling of burned area in the southern Rockies by 2070 under emissions scenarios B1 or A2. The MC1 dynamic global vegetation model projects increases in fire frequencies on 40% of the area of the Southwest from 2000 to 2100 and decreases on 50% of the areas for emissions scenarios B1 and A2.\r\nExcessive wildfire destroys homes, exposes slopes to erosion and landslides, and threatens public health, causing economic damage. Further impacts to communities and various economies (local, state, and national) have been projected.\r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "There is high confidence in this key message given the extensive evidence base and discussed uncertainties. "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Uncertainties in future projections derive from the inability of models to accurately simulate all past fire patterns, and from the different GCMs, emissions scenarios, and spatial resolutions used by different fire model projections. Fire projections depend highly on the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation projections, which vary widely across GCMs. Although models generally project future increases in wildfire, uncertainty remains on the exact locations. Research groups continue to refine the fire models."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/2008JCLI2405.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0d8b090e-e060-4f9d-a442-b7e050608a20>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/swccar-assessment-climate-change-in-southwest-us>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/17ad4429-1321-4e7c-9cd5-3554eb0c3b38>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar4-wg2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3277e83c-e374-4ed5-b0a2-0adadfaf118d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/37982de0-0e01-476f-b522-b8162d709134>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1890/07-1183.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/391560e0-40c1-4f9d-b063-e87d18c87e02>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.4996/fireecology.0503120>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3e807297-3ee2-48b8-a3b8-66dc94d0f307>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.jfe.2011.05.002>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/2011jcli4069.1>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1112839109>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/595285a9-a56e-4a77-9c34-aa8f2200daa0>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.0505734102>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/70730c1e-50f8-43db-b7b2-4d7ae90ba230>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1890/ES11-00345.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/78ccfd46-befc-4726-8dea-985aa6efb5b8>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.foreco.2011.12.024>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81f7dc22-574e-4135-b6f1-882762ea580f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1152538>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/87875dde-385b-4f57-b0ae-aa21648b2833>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0329-9>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8dfecf8b-f8a8-4f03-8d68-551b13794a1d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/2008JCLI2397.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8e18883e-9d45-4998-a0dd-bf59bab323ad>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-techreport-nesdis-142-5>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/966bf116-8d6d-41f2-96be-4b66d3e729db>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1165000>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9c23a870-58cf-49f6-9c6f-01cb94e4bb5a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/yale-assessing-2003>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a0e75d55-c3b6-4a44-805b-ef3460afd925>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.foreco.2011.11.026>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b939c889-e2f4-4e11-ae17-2382a4a2a44b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-increases-wildfires>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.262.5135.885>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d9676336-763f-4566-a262-87e7fb0d6e78>.