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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   dcterms:identifier "climate-change-reduces-crop-yields";
   gcis:findingNumber "20.2"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "The Southwest produces more than half of the nation’s high-value specialty crops, which are irrigation-dependent and particularly vulnerable to extremes of moisture, cold, and heat. Reduced yields from increasing temperatures and increasing competition for scarce water supplies will displace jobs in some rural communities."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "A central component of the assessment process was the Southwest Regional Climate assessment workshop that was held August 1-4, 2011, in Denver, CO with more than 80 participants in a series of scoping presentations and workshops.  The workshop began the process leading to a foundational Technical Input Report (TIR) report. The TIR consists of nearly 800 pages organized into 20 chapters that were assembled by 122 authors representing a wide range of inputs, including governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, tribes, and other entities. The report findings were described in a town hall meeting at the American Geophysical Union’s annual fall meeting in 2011, and feedback was collected and incorporated into the draft. \r\nThe chapter author team engaged in multiple technical discussions through more than 15 biweekly teleconferences that permitted a careful review of the foundational TIR and of approximately 125 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as the other published literature and professional judgment. The chapter author team then met at the University of Southern California on March 27-28, 2012, for expert deliberation of draft key messages by the authors. Each key message was defended before the entire author team prior to the key message being selected for inclusion. These discussions were supported by targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each message, and they were based on criteria that help define “key vulnerabilities, which include magnitude, timing, persistence and reversibility, likelihood and confidence, potential for adaptation, distribution, and importance of the vulnerable system.”"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "Increased competition for scarce water was presented in the first key message and in the foundational Technical Input Report (TIR). U.S. temperatures, including those for the Southwest region, have increased and are expected to continue to rise (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 3). Heat waves have become more frequent and intense and droughts are expected to become more intense in the Southwest (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 7). The length of the frost-free season in the Southwest has been increasing, and frost-free season length is projected to increase (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 4). A regional study discusses the trends and scenarios in the Southwest for moisture, cold, heat, and their extremes. \r\nThere is abundant evidence of irrigation dependence and vulnerability of high-value specialty crops to extremes of moisture, cold, and heat, including, prominently, the 2009 National Climate Assessment and the foundational TIR. Southwest agricultural production statistics and irrigation dependence of that production is delineated in the USDA 2007 Census of Agriculture and the USDA Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey.\r\nReduced Yields. Even under the most conservative emissions scenarios evaluated (the combination of SRES B1emissions scenario with statistically downscaled winter chill projections from the HADCM3 climate model), one study projected that required winter chill periods will fall below the number of hours that are necessary for many of the nut- and fruit-bearing trees of California, and yields are projected to decline as a result. A second study found that California wheat acreage and walnut acreage will decline due to increased temperatures. Drought and extreme weather may have more effect on the market value of fruits and vegetables, as opposed to other crops, because fruits and vegetables have high water content and because consumers expect good visual appearance and flavor. Extreme daytime and nighttime temperatures have been shown to accelerate crop ripening and maturity, reduce yield of crops such as corn, fruit trees, and vineyards, cause livestock to be stressed, and increase water consumption in agriculture.\r\nIrrigation water transfers to urban. Warmer, drier future scenarios portend large transfers of irrigation water to urban areas even though agriculture will need additional water to meet crop demands, affecting local agriculturally-dependent economies. In particular areas of the Southwest (most notably lower-central Arizona), a significant reduction in irrigated agriculture is already underway as land conversion occurs near urban centers. Functioning water markets, which may require legal and institutional changes, can enable such transfers and reduce the social and economic impacts of water shortages to urban areas. The economic impacts of climate change on Southwest fruit and nut growers are projected to be substantial and will result in a northward shift in production of these crops, displacing growers and affecting communities. \r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Although evidence includes studies of observed climate and weather impacts on agriculture, projections of future changes using climate and crop yield models and econometric models show varying results depending on the choice of crop and assumptions regarding water availability. For example, projections of 2050 California crop yields show reductions in field crop yields, based on assumptions of a 21% decline in agricultural water use, shifts away from water-intensive crops to high-value specialty crops, and development of a more economical means of transferring water from northern to southern California. Other studies, using projections of a dry, warmer future for California, and an assumption that water will flow from lower- to higher-valued uses (such as urban water use), generated a 15% decrease in irrigated acreage and a shift from lower- to higher-valued crops.\r\nBecause net reductions in the costs of water shortages depend on multiple institutional responses, it is difficult as yet to locate a best estimate of water transfers between zero and the upper bound. Water scarcity may also be a function of tradeoffs between economic returns from agricultural production and returns for selling off property or selling water to urban areas (for example, Imperial Valley transfers to San Diego).\r\nGiven the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is high in this key message. \r\n"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Competition for water is an uncertainty. The extent to which water transfers take place depends on whether complementary investments in conveyance or storage infrastructure are made. Currently, there are legal and institutional restrictions limiting water transfers across state and local jurisdictions. It is uncertain whether infrastructure investments will be made or whether institutional innovations facilitating transfers will develop. Institutional barriers will be greater if negative third-party effects of transfers are not adequately addressed. Research that would improve the information base to inform future water transfer debates includes: 1) estimates of third party impacts, 2) assessment of institutional mechanisms to reduce those impacts, 3) environmental impacts of water infrastructure projects, and 4) options and costs of mitigating those environmental impacts.\r\nExtremes and phenology. A key uncertainty is the timing of extreme events during the phenological stage of the plant or the growth cycle of the animal. For example, plants are more sensitive to extreme high temperatures and drought during the pollination stage compared to vegetative growth stages. \r\nGenetic improvement potential. Crop and livestock reduction studies by necessity depend on assumptions about adaptive actions by farmers and ranchers. However, agriculture has proven to be highly adaptive in the past. A particularly high uncertainty is the ability of conventional breeding and biotechnology to keep pace with the crop plant and animal genetic improvements needed for adaptation to climate-induced biotic and abiotic stresses. \r\n"^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-006-9079-5>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1001c025-916b-4781-8796-78c4399d691b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/swccar-assessment-climate-change-in-southwest-us>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/17ad4429-1321-4e7c-9cd5-3554eb0c3b38>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ccsp-sap-4_3-2008>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/190f2677-f5e4-4015-862e-71e982509814>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar4-wg2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3277e83c-e374-4ed5-b0a2-0adadfaf118d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/cwi-specialreport21>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/35fd4773-0d68-4ff9-a0ae-f0ea166df237>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/c9625c65-c20f-4163-87fe-cebf734f7836>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4442506b-fbba-41ea-9cef-1eac88ce2049>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1164363>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5b19a296-8813-4bbf-a292-2b555607a74b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/cec-500-2012-031>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6230e3f3-fafc-47bb-b3e0-6fc09ff7e0a7>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-techreport-nesdis-142-5>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/966bf116-8d6d-41f2-96be-4b66d3e729db>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0020155>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c620a37e-b020-4b91-94af-a2511bb66898>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca2>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nass-ac-07-ss-1-2010>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e2668b41-7c30-4ae3-843a-a9a3b60f1bc3>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nass-geographicareaseries-51-ac-07-a-51>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f8d6bd15-52c4-487d-bea5-cc791a4e9790>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca3/chapter/southwest/finding/climate-change-reduces-crop-yields>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0314-3>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ffbc0968-438e-468e-9f7f-571eea8d1878>.