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finding 10.2 : energy-dependence-on-land-water
The dependence of energy systems on land and water supplies will influence the development of these systems and options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as their climate change vulnerability.
This finding is from chapter 10 of Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment.
Process for developing key messages: The authors met for a one-day face-to-face meeting, and held teleconferences approximately weekly from March through August 2012. They considered a variety of technical input documents, including a Technical Input Report prepared through an interagency process,552cc5f5-a7b3-4a64-8bee-98ae0cced150 and 59 other reports submitted through the Federal Register Notice request for public input. The key messages were selected based on expert judgment, derived from the set of examples assembled to demonstrate the character and consequences of interactions among the energy, water, and land resource sectors.
Description of evidence base: The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in the Technical Input Report (TIR): Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions: Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment.552cc5f5-a7b3-4a64-8bee-98ae0cced150 Technical input reports (59) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 of the Climate Change Science Program,6ac1aea5-6b76-46e1-822e-664cb3d11e9a which informed the prior National Climate Assessment,e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a describes relationships among different future mixtures of energy sources, and associated radiative forcing of climate change, as a context for evaluating emissions mitigation options. Energy, water, and land linkages represent constraints, risks, and opportunities for private/public planning and investment decisions. There are evolving water and land requirements for four energy technologies: natural gas from shale,2af3709d-81eb-48b7-9183-afc6c27015ea solar power,3d273a88-b8b4-48dc-ac84-8d7c3ae7db3e biofuels,9e8af8e6-bbef-489d-b963-dc7c8d3972a3 8770e028-6f1d-4d2d-887b-f8a3a033b3d0 and carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS).0ffe8043-c4c5-43aa-b3c9-8c80e143c582 Each of these four technologies could contribute to reducing U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases. These technologies illustrate energy, water, and land linkages and other complexities for the design, planning, and deployment of our energy future. Evidence for energy production and use are derived from U.S. government reports.70a7ccad-a525-412e-8572-325814906b45 e6d73a34-70a6-4cd0-a629-a3e7dd394e65 The contributions of hydraulic fracturing to natural gas production are based on a brief article by the Energy Information Administration2af3709d-81eb-48b7-9183-afc6c27015ea and a primer by the U.S. Department of Energy.7fbbe803-8d4a-479d-8720-920585f24743 Information about water and energy demands for utility-scale solar power facilities is derived from two major DOE reports.3d273a88-b8b4-48dc-ac84-8d7c3ae7db3e b80498ce-9f36-4afb-a060-8716331b2041 Distribution of U.S. solar energy resources is from Web-based products of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (http://www.nrel.gov/gis/). On biofuels, there are government data on the scale of biomass-based energy,2af3709d-81eb-48b7-9183-afc6c27015ea and studies on water and land requirements and other social and environmental aspects.9e8af8e6-bbef-489d-b963-dc7c8d3972a3 8770e028-6f1d-4d2d-887b-f8a3a033b3d0
New information and remaining uncertainties: There are no major uncertainties regarding this key message. Progress in development and deployment of the energy technologies described has tended to follow a pattern: potential constraints arise because of dependence on water and land resources, but then these constraints motivate advances in technology to reduced dependence or result in adjustments of societal priorities. There are uncertainties in how energy systems’ dependence on water will be limited by other resources, such as land; uncertainties about the effects on emissions and the development and deployment of future energy technologies; and uncertainties about the impacts of climate change on energy systems.
Assessment of confidence based on evidence: Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is high. The primary limitation on confidence assigned to this key message is with respect to its generality and dependence on technological advances. Energy technology development has the potential to reduce water and land requirements, and to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts. It is difficult to forecast success in this regard for technologies such as CCS that are still in early phases of development
- Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (0ffe8043)
- Annual Energy Outlook 2012 with Projections to 2035. DOE/EIA-0383(2012) (2af3709d)
- SunShot Vision Study. DOE/GO-102012-3037 (3d273a88)
- Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions. Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment. PNNL-21185 (552cc5f5)
- SAP 2.1A. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (6ac1aea5)
- Concentrating Solar Power Commercial Application Study: Reducing Water Consumption of Concentrating Solar Power Electricity Generation. Report to Congress. (70a7ccad)
- Modern Shale Gas Development in the United States: A Primer (7fbbe803)
- Biofuels and Biodiversity. CBD Technical Series No. 65 (8770e028)
- Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy (9e8af8e6)
- Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures. NREL/TP-6A20-52409-1 (b80498ce)
- Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (e251f590)
- Natural Gas Annual 2010. DOE/EIA-0131(10) (e6d73a34)
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