reference : Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases

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reftype Journal Article
Abstract This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.
Author Tversky, Amos Kahneman, Daniel
DOI 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
Date September 27, 1974
Issue 4157
Journal Science
Pages 1124-1131
Title Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
Volume 185
Year 1974
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_chapter ["Ch. 26: Decision Support FINAL"]
_record_number 4459
_uuid 28ca9177-5df9-4912-b2a7-292c0a60726d