uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Journal,attrs.Title,"attrs.Type of Article",attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/b1cbd298-7ce4-4106-a802-f8de95517c97,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b1cbd298-7ce4-4106-a802-f8de95517c97,b1cbd298-7ce4-4106-a802-f8de95517c97,"The states of Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming comprise the Northern Great Plains region of the USA. The soil and water resources contained in this region have historically supported highly diverse and productive agriculture enterprises that provide a significant proportion of the food, feed, and oilseed for the nation. The region also provides ecological services that influence air, water, and soil quality along with biological diversity. Combined with livestock production and a biofuel industry, crop production forms an integrated system that can offer producers flexibility in management decisions. Projected climatic changes for this region include increasing atmospheric CO2, a longer, warmer growing season, and increased precipitation, likely received in more frequent extreme events. These changes will impact soil and water resources in the region and create opportunities and challenges for land managers. The objectives of this paper are to describe anticipated impacts of projected mid-(2050) and late-(2085) climatic changes on crop production systems in the Northern Great Plains and provide adaptation strategies that should be developed to take advantage of positive and mitigate negative changes. Projected climatic changes will influence agricultural productivity directly as well as indirectly due to changes in weed pressure, insect populations, and diseases. A warmer, longer growing season will change the crops and distribution of those crops grown within the region. An increase in the number of extreme temperature events (high daytime highs or nighttime lows) will decrease crop yields due to increased plant stress during critical pollination and grain fill periods. Adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of soil and water resources to projected climatic changes include increasing cropping intensity, reducing tillage intensity, and use of cover crops to provide surface cover to reduce erosion potential and improve nutrient and water use efficiency. Increased use of perennial forages, crop residue, and failed crops in integrated crop-livestock systems will add biological diversity and provide options for converting vegetation biomass into animal protein. Socio-economic changes will need to be incorporated into adaptation strategies planning to insure that sustaining ecosystem services and meeting desired production and conservation goals is accomplished. Education and extension services will be needed to transfer adaptive knowledge in a timely manner to producers in the field.","Wienhold, Brian J.; Vigil, Merle F.; Hendrickson, John R.; Derner, Justin D.",10.1007/s10584-017-1989-x,"May 23",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","Vulnerability of crops and croplands in the US Northern Plains to predicted climate change","journal article",2017,21604,b1cbd298-7ce4-4106-a802-f8de95517c97,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-017-1989-x
/reference/b3855765-38da-4fd9-8288-874a43b16607,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b3855765-38da-4fd9-8288-874a43b16607,b3855765-38da-4fd9-8288-874a43b16607,,"Bebber, Daniel P.; Ramotowski, Mark A. T.; Gurr, Sarah J.",10.1038/nclimate1990,11//print,1758-678X,"Nature Climate Change","Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world",Letter,2013,21157,b3855765-38da-4fd9-8288-874a43b16607,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate1990
/reference/b84b193b-ca98-479c-b5ef-fe94e5ffd39c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b84b193b-ca98-479c-b5ef-fe94e5ffd39c,b84b193b-ca98-479c-b5ef-fe94e5ffd39c,"Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.","Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin; Stehfest, Elke; Yang, Hong; Jones, James W.",10.1073/pnas.1222463110,"March 4, 2014",,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America","Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison",,2014,19789,b84b193b-ca98-479c-b5ef-fe94e5ffd39c,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1222463110
/reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0,bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0,,"Marshall, Elizabeth; Marcel Aillery; Scott Malcolm; Ryan Williams",,,,,"Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Adaptation in the U.S. Fieldcrop Sector",,2015,23629,bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0,Report,/report/climate-change-water-scarcity-adaptation-us-fieldcrop-sector
/reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,"The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.","Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.",10.1073/pnas.1615922114,"March 21, 2017",,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America","Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity",,2017,21170,c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1615922114
/reference/c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,"The Southwestern US is a five-state region that has supported animal agriculture since the late 16th Century when European settlers crossed the Rio Grande into present day west Texas and southern New Mexico with herds of cattle, sheep, goats and horses. For the past 400 years the rangeland livestock industry, in its many forms and manifestations, has developed management strategies and conservation practices that impart resilience to the climatic extremes, especially prolonged droughts, that are common and extensive across this region. Livestock production from rangelands in the southwest (SW) is adapted to low rainfall and high ambient temperatures, but will have to continue to adapt management strategies, such as reduced stocking rates, proper grazing management practices, employing animal genetics suited to arid environments with less herbaceous production, erosion control conservation practices, and alternative forage supplies, in an increasingly arid and variable climatic environment. Even though the aging demographics of western ranchers could be a deterrent to implementing various adaptations, there are examples of creative management coalitions to cope with climatic change that are emerging in the SW that can serve as instructive examples. More importantly, there are additional opportunities for incorporation of transformative practices and technologies that can sustain animal agriculture in the SW in a warmer environment. Animal agriculture in the SW is inherently resilient, and has the capacity to adapt and transform as needed to the climatic changes that are now occurring and will continue to occur across this region. However, producers and land managers will need to thoroughly understand the vulnerabilities and sensitivities that face them as well as the ecological characteristics of their specific landscapes in order to cope with the emerging climatic changes across the SW region.","Havstad, K. M.; Brown, J. R.; Estell, R.; Elias, E.; Rango, A.; Steele, C.",10.1007/s10584-016-1834-7,"November 08",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","Vulnerabilities of southwestern U.S. rangeland-based animal agriculture to climate change","journal article",2016,23531,c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1834-7
/reference/c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615,c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615,"While most models project large increases in agricultural drought frequency and severity in the 21st century, significant uncertainties exist in these projections. Here, we compare the model-simulated changes with observation-based estimates since 1900 and examine model projections from both the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index with the Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm) as a measure of agricultural drought. Results show that estimated long-term changes in global and hemispheric drought areas from 1900 to 2014 are consistent with the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-simulated response to historical greenhouse gases and other external forcing, with the short-term variations within the model spread of internal variability, despite that regional changes are still dominated by internal variability. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models project continued increases (by 50–200 % in a relative sense) in the 21st century in global agricultural drought frequency and area even under low-moderate emissions scenarios, resulting from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the sc_PDSI_pm. This flattening is especially pronounced over the Northern Hemisphere land, leading to increased drought frequency even over areas with increasing sc_PDSI_pm. Large differences exist in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-projected precipitation and drought changes over the Sahel and northern Australia due to uncertainties in simulating the African Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the subsidence zone over northern Australia, while the wetting trend over East Africa reflects a robust response of the Indian Ocean ITCZ seen in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. While warming-induced PET increases over all latitudes and precipitation decreases over subtropical land are responsible for mean sc_PDSI_pm decreases, the exact cause of its PDF flattening needs further investigation.","Zhao, Tianbao; Dai, Aiguo",10.1007/s10584-016-1742-x,"October 01",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: Model-simulated historical and future drought changes","journal article",2017,23595,c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1742-x
/reference/c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77,c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77,,"Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; Reynolds, M. P.; Alderman, P. D.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Koehler, A. K.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ruane, A. C.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P. J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.",10.1038/nclimate2470,12/22/online,,"Nature Climate Change","Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production",,2015,23497,c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate2470
/reference/dcd0b157-c8af-44c1-a0f9-ce824c551b03,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dcd0b157-c8af-44c1-a0f9-ce824c551b03,dcd0b157-c8af-44c1-a0f9-ce824c551b03,,"Peterson, Alexander G.; Abatzoglou, John T.",10.1002/2014GL059266,,1944-8007,"Geophysical Research Letters","Observed changes in false springs over the contiguous United States",,2014,23437,dcd0b157-c8af-44c1-a0f9-ce824c551b03,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2014GL059266
/reference/dcf14e95-6370-4d19-b975-33fc290cffae,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dcf14e95-6370-4d19-b975-33fc290cffae,dcf14e95-6370-4d19-b975-33fc290cffae,,"Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.",10.1038/ncomms6989,01/22/online,,"Nature Communications","Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability",Article,2015,23571,dcf14e95-6370-4d19-b975-33fc290cffae,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/ncomms6989