--- - attrs: Author: 'Chavez, Erik; Conway, Gordon; Ghil, Michael; Sadler, Marc' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2747 Date: 08/03/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 997-1001 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: An end-to-end assessment of extreme weather impacts on food security Volume: 5 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23509 _uuid: 0c472f1b-25ac-44c2-a3a5-a04ba7567fdd reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2747 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0c472f1b-25ac-44c2-a3a5-a04ba7567fdd.yaml identifier: 0c472f1b-25ac-44c2-a3a5-a04ba7567fdd uri: /reference/0c472f1b-25ac-44c2-a3a5-a04ba7567fdd - attrs: Author: 'Schauberger, Bernhard; Archontoulis, Sotirios; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Müller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Rolinski, Susanne; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schmid, Erwin; Wang, Xuhui; Schlenker, Wolfram; Frieler, Katja' DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13931 Date: 01/19/online Journal: Nature Communications Pages: 13931 Publisher: The Author(s) Title: Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models Type of Article: Article Volume: 8 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21163 _uuid: 2967c8a9-063e-4118-92a4-71f266341e2f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/ncomms13931 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2967c8a9-063e-4118-92a4-71f266341e2f.yaml identifier: 2967c8a9-063e-4118-92a4-71f266341e2f uri: /reference/2967c8a9-063e-4118-92a4-71f266341e2f - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'A combination of climate events (e.g., low precipitation and high temperatures) may cause a significant impact on the ecosystem and society, although individual events involved may not be severe extremes themselves. Analyzing historical changes in concurrent climate extremes is critical to preparing for and mitigating the negative effects of climatic change and variability. This study focuses on the changes in concurrences of heatwaves and meteorological droughts from 1960 to 2010. Despite an apparent hiatus in rising temperature and no significant trend in droughts, we show a substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves across most parts of the United States, and a statistically significant shift in the distribution of concurrent extremes. Although commonly used trend analysis methods do not show any trend in concurrent droughts and heatwaves, a unique statistical approach discussed in this study exhibits a statistically significant change in the distribution of the data.' Author: 'Mazdiyasni, Omid; AghaKouchak, Amir' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1422945112 Date: 'September 15, 2015' Issue: 37 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 11484-11489 Title: Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States Volume: 112 Year: 2015 _record_number: 20268 _uuid: 38b0ec9f-8c00-428f-9ec9-6214f617515d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1422945112 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/38b0ec9f-8c00-428f-9ec9-6214f617515d.yaml identifier: 38b0ec9f-8c00-428f-9ec9-6214f617515d uri: /reference/38b0ec9f-8c00-428f-9ec9-6214f617515d - attrs: Author: 'Novick, Kimberly A.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Stoy, Paul C.; Williams, Christopher A.; Bohrer, Gil; Oishi, A.  Christopher; Papuga, Shirley A.; Blanken, Peter D.; Noormets, Asko; Sulman, Benjamin N.; Scott, Russell L.; Wang, Lixin; Phillips, Richard P.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3114 Date: 09/05/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 1023-1027 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23563 _uuid: 3a3fae72-1abc-4a9e-a816-02252ac7c6fe reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3114 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3a3fae72-1abc-4a9e-a816-02252ac7c6fe.yaml identifier: 3a3fae72-1abc-4a9e-a816-02252ac7c6fe uri: /reference/3a3fae72-1abc-4a9e-a816-02252ac7c6fe - attrs: .reference_type: 10 .text_styles: '' Author: 'Walthall, C.; Backlund, P.; Hatfield, J.; Lengnick, L.; Marshall, E.; Walsh, M.; Adkins, S.; Aillery, M.; Ainsworth, E.A.; Amman, C.; Anderson, C.J.; Bartomeus, I.; Baumgard, L.H.; Booker, F.; Bradley, B.; Blumenthal, D.M.; Bunce, J.; Burkey, K.; Dabney, S.M.; Delgado, J.A.; Dukes, J.; Funk, A.; Garrett, K.; Glenn, M.; Grantz, D.A.; Goodrich, D.; Hu, S.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jones, R.A.C.; Kim, S-H.; Leaky, A.D.B.; Lewers, K.; Mader, T.L.; McClung, A.; Morgan, J.; Muth, D.J.; Nearing, M.; Oosterhuis, D.M.; Ort, D.; Parmesan, C.; Pettigrew, W.T.; Polley, W.; Rader, R.; Rice, C.; Rivington, M.; Rosskopf, E.; Salas, W.A.; Sollenberger, L.E.; Srygley, R.; Stockle, C.; Takle, E.S.; Timlin, D.; White, J.W.; Winfree, R.; Wright-Morton, L.; Ziska, L.H.' Institution: U.S. Department of Agriculture Pages: 186 Place Published: 'Washington, D.C.' Series Volume: USDA Technical Bulletin 1935 Title: 'Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation' URL: http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/effects_2012/CC%20and%20Agriculture%20Report%20(02-04-2013)b.pdf Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 14: Rural Communities FINAL","Ch. 6: Agriculture FINAL"]' _record_number: 3329 _uuid: 3baf471f-751f-4d68-9227-4197fdbb6e5d reftype: Report child_publication: /report/usda-techbul-1935 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3baf471f-751f-4d68-9227-4197fdbb6e5d.yaml identifier: 3baf471f-751f-4d68-9227-4197fdbb6e5d uri: /reference/3baf471f-751f-4d68-9227-4197fdbb6e5d - attrs: Abstract: 'How drought may change in the future are of great concern as global warming continues. In Part I of this study, we examine the uncertainties in estimating recent drought changes. Substantial uncertainties arise in the calculated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiraiton (PDSI_pm) due to different choices of forcing data (especially for precipitation, solar radiation and wind speed) and the calibration period. After detailed analyses, we recommend using the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) or the Global Precipitation Climatology (GPCP) datasets over other existing land precipitation products due to poor data coverage in the other datasets since the 1990s. We also recommend not to include the years after 1980 in the PDSI calibration period to avoid including the anthropogenic climate change as part of the natural variability used for calibration. Consistent with reported declines in pan evaporation, our calculated potential evapotranspiration (PET) shows negative or small trends since 1950 over the United States, China, and other regions, and no global PET trends from 1950 to 1990. Updated precipitation and streamflow data and the self-calibrated PDSI_pm all show consistent drying during 1950–2012 over most Africa, East and South Asia, southern Europe, eastern Australia, and many parts of the Americas. While these regional drying trends resulted primarily from precipitation changes related to multi-decadal oscillations in Pacific sea surface temperatures, rapid surface warming and associated increases in surface vapor pressure deficit since the 1980s have become an increasingly important cause of widespread drying over land.' Author: 'Dai, Aiguo; Zhao, Tianbao' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1705-2 Date: October 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 3 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 519-533 Title: 'Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part I: estimates of historical drought changes' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 144 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23512 _uuid: 476ae3ff-66e2-4cea-8e8f-6e9946356ed0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-016-1705-2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/476ae3ff-66e2-4cea-8e8f-6e9946356ed0.yaml identifier: 476ae3ff-66e2-4cea-8e8f-6e9946356ed0 uri: /reference/476ae3ff-66e2-4cea-8e8f-6e9946356ed0 - attrs: Abstract: 'Seasonal transitions from winter to spring impact a wide variety of ecological and physical systems. While the effects of early springs across North America are widely documented, changes in their frequency and likelihood under the combined influences of climate change and natural variability are poorly understood. Extremely early springs, such as March 2012, can lead to severe economical losses and agricultural damage when these are followed by hard freeze events. Here we use the new Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project and Extended Spring Indices to simulate historical and future spring onsets across the United States and in the particular the Great Lakes region. We found a marked increase in the frequency of March 2012-like springs by midcentury in addition to an overall trend towards earlier spring onsets, which nearly doubles that of observational records. However, changes in the date of last freeze do not occur at the same rate, therefore, causing a potential increase in the threat of plant tissue damage. Although large-scale climate modes, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, have previously dominated decadal to multidecadal spring onset trends, our results indicate a decreased role in natural climate variability and hence a greater forced response by the end of the century for modulating trends. Without a major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, our study suggests that years like 2012 in the US could become normal by mid-century.' Author: 'Labe, Zachary; Ault, Toby; Zurita-Milla, Raul' DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3313-2 Date: June 01 ISSN: 1432-0894 Issue: 11 Journal: Climate Dynamics Pages: 3949-3966 Title: Identifying anomalously early spring onsets in the CESM large ensemble project Type of Article: journal article Volume: 48 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23401 _uuid: 4d4ae7e2-bd4f-429c-a696-e60e0156d95f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00382-016-3313-2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4d4ae7e2-bd4f-429c-a696-e60e0156d95f.yaml identifier: 4d4ae7e2-bd4f-429c-a696-e60e0156d95f uri: /reference/4d4ae7e2-bd4f-429c-a696-e60e0156d95f - attrs: Author: 'Young, Stephen L.' DOI: 10.1002/bes2.1315 ISSN: 2327-6096 Issue: 2 Journal: Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America Pages: 165-172 Title: 'As climate shifts, so do pests: A national forum and assessment' Volume: 98 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23592 _uuid: 5aeba9d1-c405-45a2-b259-bd95dcf17a05 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/bes2.1315 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5aeba9d1-c405-45a2-b259-bd95dcf17a05.yaml identifier: 5aeba9d1-c405-45a2-b259-bd95dcf17a05 uri: /reference/5aeba9d1-c405-45a2-b259-bd95dcf17a05 - attrs: Abstract: 'Climate variability and trends affect global crop yields and are characterized as highly dependent on location, crop type, and irrigation. U.S. Great Plains, due to its significance in national food production, evident climate variability, and extensive irrigation is an ideal region of investigation for climate impacts on food production. This paper evaluates climate impacts on maize, sorghum, and soybean yields and effect of irrigation for individual counties in this region by employing extensive crop yield and climate datasets from 1968–2013. Variability in crop yields was a quarter of the regional average yields, with a quarter of this variability explained by climate variability, and temperature and precipitation explained these in singularity or combination at different locations. Observed temperature trend was beneficial for maize yields, but detrimental for sorghum and soybean yields, whereas observed precipitation trend was beneficial for all three crops. Irrigated yields demonstrated increased robustness and an effective mitigation strategy against climate impacts than their non-irrigated counterparts by a considerable fraction. The information, data, and maps provided can serve as an assessment guide for planners, managers, and policy- and decision makers to prioritize agricultural resilience efforts and resource allocation or re-allocation in the regions that exhibit risk from climate variability.' Author: 'Kukal, Meetpal S.; Irmak, Suat' DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-21848-2 Date: 2018/02/22 ISSN: 2045-2322 Issue: 1 Journal: Scientific Reports Pages: 3450 Title: Climate-driven crop yield and yield variability and climate change impacts on the U.S. Great Plains agricultural production Volume: 8 Year: 2018 _record_number: 25552 _uuid: 5cbf6744-fd90-4afb-8ba4-90979ee029ce reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/s41598-018-21848-2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5cbf6744-fd90-4afb-8ba4-90979ee029ce.yaml identifier: 5cbf6744-fd90-4afb-8ba4-90979ee029ce uri: /reference/5cbf6744-fd90-4afb-8ba4-90979ee029ce - attrs: Abstract: 'In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring–summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.' Author: 'Gammans, Matthew; Pierre Mérel; Ariel Ortiz-Bobea' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b0c ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 5 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 054007 Title: 'Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: Statistical evidence from France' Volume: 12 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23522 _uuid: 63db2021-16af-4542-a6ca-c8c35406118d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b0c href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/63db2021-16af-4542-a6ca-c8c35406118d.yaml identifier: 63db2021-16af-4542-a6ca-c8c35406118d uri: /reference/63db2021-16af-4542-a6ca-c8c35406118d - attrs: Author: 'Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K; Alderman, Phillip D; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A; Izaurralde, Roberto C; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D; Kersebaum, Kurt C; Kimball, Bruce A; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O’Leary, Garry J; Olesen, Jørgen E; Ottman, Michael J; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P.  V  Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A  M; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E; Rötter, Reimund P; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3115 Date: 09/12/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 1130-1136 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods Type of Article: Article Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23554 _uuid: 68ae490c-ab1d-4cf6-9e49-1d55448c154a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3115 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/68ae490c-ab1d-4cf6-9e49-1d55448c154a.yaml identifier: 68ae490c-ab1d-4cf6-9e49-1d55448c154a uri: /reference/68ae490c-ab1d-4cf6-9e49-1d55448c154a - attrs: Author: 'Burke, Marshall; Emerick, Kyle' DOI: 10.1257/pol.20130025 Issue: 3 Journal: 'American Economic Journal: Economic Policy' Pages: 106-40 Title: 'Adaptation to climate change: Evidence from US agriculture' Volume: 8 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23508 _uuid: 7266e04a-9ec1-49cd-9e71-6b9502733ec0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1257/pol.20130025 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7266e04a-9ec1-49cd-9e71-6b9502733ec0.yaml identifier: 7266e04a-9ec1-49cd-9e71-6b9502733ec0 uri: /reference/7266e04a-9ec1-49cd-9e71-6b9502733ec0 - attrs: Abstract: 'Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985–2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September−May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.' Author: 'Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1415181112 Date: 'June 2, 2015' Issue: 22 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 6931-6936 Title: Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields Volume: 112 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23582 _uuid: 72962214-b93d-4ced-b773-156135252d2d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1415181112 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/72962214-b93d-4ced-b773-156135252d2d.yaml identifier: 72962214-b93d-4ced-b773-156135252d2d uri: /reference/72962214-b93d-4ced-b773-156135252d2d - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: USGCRP DOI: 10.7930/J0J964J6 Pages: 470 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Secondary Author: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' Year: 2017 _record_number: 21557 _uuid: 75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1.yaml identifier: 75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1 uri: /reference/75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance. Hot extremes have been shown to be induced by surface moisture deficits in some regions. In this study, we assess whether such a relationship holds at the global scale. We find that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions’ hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. The occurrence probability of an above-average number of hot days is over 70% after precipitation deficits in most parts of South America as well as the Iberian Peninsula and Eastern Australia, and over 60% in most of North America and Eastern Europe, while it is below 30–40% after wet conditions in these regions. Using quantile regression analyses, we show that the impact of precipitation deficits on the number of hot days is asymmetric, i.e. extreme high numbers of hot days are most strongly influenced. This relationship also applies to the 2011 extreme event in Texas. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed. ' Author: "Mueller, B.\rS.I. Seneviratne" DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109 ISSN: 0027-8424 Issue: 31 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Keywords: 'hot day prediction; soil moisture–temperature coupling; standardized precipitation index; temperature extremes; ' Pages: 12398-12403 Title: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale URL: http://www.pnas.org/content/109/31/12398.full.pdf+html Volume: 109 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2"]' _record_number: 2121 _uuid: 77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1204330109 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b.yaml identifier: 77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b uri: /reference/77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b - attrs: Abstract: 'Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.' Author: 'Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Peñuelas, Josep; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701762114 Date: 'August 29, 2017' Issue: 35 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 9326-9331 Title: Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates Volume: 114 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23596 _uuid: 79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1701762114 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1.yaml identifier: 79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1 uri: /reference/79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1 - attrs: Author: 'Donovan, Victoria M.; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Twidwell, Dirac' DOI: 10.1002/2017GL072901 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 12 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: Great Plains biome; fire season; Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS); wildfire; pyrogeography; fire regime; 1630 Impacts of global change; 1632 Land cover change; 1817 Extreme events; 4335 Disaster management; 4316 Physical modeling Pages: 5986-5993 Title: Surging wildfire activity in a grassland biome Volume: 44 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23516 _uuid: 81917ef2-289f-4700-bc1a-254feb5156e5 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2017GL072901 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81917ef2-289f-4700-bc1a-254feb5156e5.yaml identifier: 81917ef2-289f-4700-bc1a-254feb5156e5 uri: /reference/81917ef2-289f-4700-bc1a-254feb5156e5 - attrs: Abstract: 'We assess the benefits of climate change mitigation for global maize and wheat production over the 21st century by comparing outcomes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 as simulated by two large initial condition ensembles from NCAR’s Community Earth System Model. We use models of the relation between climate variables, CO2 concentrations, and yields built on observations and then project this relation on the basis of simulated future temperature and precipitation and CO2 trajectories under the two scenarios, for short (2021–2040), medium (2041–2060) and long (2061–2080) time horizons. We focus on projected mean yield impacts, chances of significant slowdowns in yield, and exposure to damaging heat during critical periods of the growing seasons, the last of which is not explicitly considered in yield impacts by most models, including ours. We find that substantial benefits from mitigation would be achieved throughout the 21st century for maize, in terms of reducing (1) the size of average yield impacts, with mean losses for maize under RCP8.5 reduced under RCP4.5 by about 25 %, 40 % and 50 % as the time horizon lengthens over the 21st century; (2) the risk of major slowdowns over a 10 or 20 year period, with maize chances under RCP4.5 being reduced up to ~75 % by the end of the century compared to those estimated under RCP8.5; and (3) exposure to critical or “lethal” heat extremes, with the number of extremely hot days under RCP8.5 roughly triple current levels by end of century, compared to a doubling for RCP4.5. For wheat, we project small or occasionally negative effects of mitigation for projected yields, because of stronger CO2 fertilization effects than in maize, but substantial benefits of mitigation remain in terms of exposure to extremely high temperatures.' Author: 'Tebaldi, Claudia; Lobell, David' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1537-5 Date: October 28 ISSN: 1573-1480 Journal: Climatic Change Title: Estimated impacts of emission reductions on wheat and maize crops Type of Article: journal article Year: 2015 _record_number: 23583 _uuid: 82a91188-b255-4485-8e65-0417131e5c25 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-015-1537-5 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/82a91188-b255-4485-8e65-0417131e5c25.yaml identifier: 82a91188-b255-4485-8e65-0417131e5c25 uri: /reference/82a91188-b255-4485-8e65-0417131e5c25 - attrs: Abstract: 'Maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) are the dominant grain crops across the Midwest and are grown on 75% of the arable land with small but economically important crops of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and oats (Avena sativa L.) but economically important crops. Historically, there have been variations in annual yields for maize and soybean related to the seasonal weather patterns. Key concerns are the impacts of future climate change on maize and soybean production and their vulnerability to future climate changes. To evaluate these, we analyzed the yield gaps as the difference between the attainable and actual yield at the county level and observed meteorological data to determine which seasonal meteorological variables were dominant in quantifying the actual/attainable yields. July maximum temperatures, August minimum temperatures, and July–August total precipitation were found to be the significant factors affecting the yield gap. These relationships were used to estimate the change in the yield gap through 2100 using both the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios for these variables for selected counties across the Midwest. Yield gaps increased with time for maize across the Midwest with the largest increases in the southern portion of the Corn Belt showing a large north-south gradient in the increase of the yield gap and minimal east-west gradient. Soybean was not as sensitive as maize because the projected temperatures do not exceed optimum temperature ranges for growth and reductions in production that are more sensitive to precipitation changes during the reproductive stages. Adaptation strategies for maize and soybean will require more innovation than simple agronomic management and require the linkage between geneticists, agronomists, and agricultural meteorologists to develop innovative strategies to preserve production in the Midwest.' Author: 'Hatfield, J. L.; Wright-Morton, Lois; Hall, Beth' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1997-x Date: June 12 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 1-2 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 263-275 Title: Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies Type of Article: journal article Volume: 146 Year: 2018 _record_number: 23530 _uuid: 83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-1997-x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a.yaml identifier: 83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a uri: /reference/83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California.' Author: 'Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1422385112 Date: 'March 31, 2015' Issue: 13 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 3931-3936 Title: Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California Volume: 112 Year: 2015 _record_number: 19545 _uuid: 89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1422385112 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151.yaml identifier: 89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 uri: /reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 - attrs: Author: 'Lobell, D.B.; Schlenker, W.; Costa-Roberts, J.' DOI: 10.1126/science.1204531 ISSN: 0036-8075 Issue: 6042 Journal: Science NIHMSID: ' NCA' Pages: 616-620 Title: Climate trends and global crop production since 1980 Volume: 333 Year: 2011 _record_number: 14290 _uuid: 9282485a-e4e4-42d8-b8c5-2cd00eecb3fd reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.1204531 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9282485a-e4e4-42d8-b8c5-2cd00eecb3fd.yaml identifier: 9282485a-e4e4-42d8-b8c5-2cd00eecb3fd uri: /reference/9282485a-e4e4-42d8-b8c5-2cd00eecb3fd - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Ratcliffe, Susan; Matthew Baur; Hugh Beckie; Loren Giesler; Norman Leppla; Jill Schroeder' Institution: Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST) Pages: 20 Place Published: 'Ames, IA' Series Volume: CAST Issue Paper 58 Title: Crop Protection Contributions Toward Agricultural Productivity. A Paper in the Series on The Need for Agricultural Innovation to Sustainably Feed the World by 2050 URL: http://www.cast-science.org/publications/?crop_protection_contributions_toward_agricultural_productivity&show=product&productID=284599 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23603 _uuid: 9be3da44-0c39-418f-8dbb-1aca0400d6f7 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/crop-protection-contributions-toward-agricultural-productivity-paper-series-on-need-agricultural-innovation-sustainably-feed-world-by-2050 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9be3da44-0c39-418f-8dbb-1aca0400d6f7.yaml identifier: 9be3da44-0c39-418f-8dbb-1aca0400d6f7 uri: /reference/9be3da44-0c39-418f-8dbb-1aca0400d6f7 - attrs: Abstract: 'Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the onset of fire exclusion in the late 1800s. Variability in cool-season precipitation has been linked to fire occurrence, but the effects of the summer North American monsoon on fire are less understood, as are the effects of climate on fire seasonality. We use a new set of reconstructions for cool-season (October–April) and monsoon-season (July–August) moisture conditions along with a large new fire scar dataset to examine relationships between multi-seasonal climate variability, fire extent, and fire seasonality in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1599–1899 CE). Results suggest that large fires burning in all seasons are strongly influenced by the current year cool-season moisture, but fires burning mid-summer to fall are also influenced by monsoon moisture. Wet conditions several years prior to the fire year during the cool season, and to a lesser extent during the monsoon season, are also important for spring through late-summer fires. Persistent cool-season drought longer than 3 years may inhibit fires due to the lack of moisture to replenish surface fuels. This suggests that fuels may become increasingly limiting for fire occurrence in semi-arid regions that are projected to become drier with climate change.' Author: 'Margolis, E. Q.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Swetnam, T. W.' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1958-4 Date: June 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 3 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 433-446 Title: 'Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 142 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23557 _uuid: a5604aed-9a6f-468e-acf4-f4a0bb574d3e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-1958-4 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a5604aed-9a6f-468e-acf4-f4a0bb574d3e.yaml identifier: a5604aed-9a6f-468e-acf4-f4a0bb574d3e uri: /reference/a5604aed-9a6f-468e-acf4-f4a0bb574d3e - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Baenziger, P. Stephen ; Rita Mumm; Rex Bernardo; E. Charles Brummer; Peter Langridge; Philipp Simon; Stephen Smith' Institution: Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST) Pages: 24 Place Published: 'Ames, IA' Series Volume: CAST Issue Paper 57 Title: Plant Breeding and Genetics. A Paper in the Series on The Need for Agricultural Innovation to Sustainably Feed the World by 2050 URL: http://www.cast-science.org/publications/?plant_breeding_and_genetics&show=product&productID=284583 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23602 _uuid: aa176a1e-7be0-4a50-9099-3656f2bb7d42 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/plant-breeding-genetics-paper-series-on-need-agricultural-innovation-sustainably-feed-world-by-2050 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/aa176a1e-7be0-4a50-9099-3656f2bb7d42.yaml identifier: aa176a1e-7be0-4a50-9099-3656f2bb7d42 uri: /reference/aa176a1e-7be0-4a50-9099-3656f2bb7d42 - attrs: Abstract: 'The states of Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming comprise the Northern Great Plains region of the USA. The soil and water resources contained in this region have historically supported highly diverse and productive agriculture enterprises that provide a significant proportion of the food, feed, and oilseed for the nation. The region also provides ecological services that influence air, water, and soil quality along with biological diversity. Combined with livestock production and a biofuel industry, crop production forms an integrated system that can offer producers flexibility in management decisions. Projected climatic changes for this region include increasing atmospheric CO2, a longer, warmer growing season, and increased precipitation, likely received in more frequent extreme events. These changes will impact soil and water resources in the region and create opportunities and challenges for land managers. The objectives of this paper are to describe anticipated impacts of projected mid-(2050) and late-(2085) climatic changes on crop production systems in the Northern Great Plains and provide adaptation strategies that should be developed to take advantage of positive and mitigate negative changes. Projected climatic changes will influence agricultural productivity directly as well as indirectly due to changes in weed pressure, insect populations, and diseases. A warmer, longer growing season will change the crops and distribution of those crops grown within the region. An increase in the number of extreme temperature events (high daytime highs or nighttime lows) will decrease crop yields due to increased plant stress during critical pollination and grain fill periods. Adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of soil and water resources to projected climatic changes include increasing cropping intensity, reducing tillage intensity, and use of cover crops to provide surface cover to reduce erosion potential and improve nutrient and water use efficiency. Increased use of perennial forages, crop residue, and failed crops in integrated crop-livestock systems will add biological diversity and provide options for converting vegetation biomass into animal protein. Socio-economic changes will need to be incorporated into adaptation strategies planning to insure that sustaining ecosystem services and meeting desired production and conservation goals is accomplished. Education and extension services will be needed to transfer adaptive knowledge in a timely manner to producers in the field.' Author: 'Wienhold, Brian J.; Vigil, Merle F.; Hendrickson, John R.; Derner, Justin D.' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1989-x Date: May 23 ISSN: 1573-1480 Journal: Climatic Change Title: Vulnerability of crops and croplands in the US Northern Plains to predicted climate change Type of Article: journal article Year: 2017 _record_number: 21604 _uuid: b1cbd298-7ce4-4106-a802-f8de95517c97 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-1989-x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b1cbd298-7ce4-4106-a802-f8de95517c97.yaml identifier: b1cbd298-7ce4-4106-a802-f8de95517c97 uri: /reference/b1cbd298-7ce4-4106-a802-f8de95517c97 - attrs: Author: 'Bebber, Daniel P.; Ramotowski, Mark A. T.; Gurr, Sarah J.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1990 Date: 11//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 11 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 985-988 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world Type of Article: Letter Volume: 3 Year: 2013 _record_number: 21157 _uuid: b3855765-38da-4fd9-8288-874a43b16607 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate1990 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b3855765-38da-4fd9-8288-874a43b16607.yaml identifier: b3855765-38da-4fd9-8288-874a43b16607 uri: /reference/b3855765-38da-4fd9-8288-874a43b16607 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.' Author: 'Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin; Stehfest, Elke; Yang, Hong; Jones, James W.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222463110 Date: 'March 4, 2014' Issue: 9 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 3268-3273 Title: Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison Volume: 111 Year: 2014 _record_number: 19789 _uuid: b84b193b-ca98-479c-b5ef-fe94e5ffd39c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1222463110 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b84b193b-ca98-479c-b5ef-fe94e5ffd39c.yaml identifier: b84b193b-ca98-479c-b5ef-fe94e5ffd39c uri: /reference/b84b193b-ca98-479c-b5ef-fe94e5ffd39c - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Marshall, Elizabeth; Marcel Aillery; Scott Malcolm; Ryan Williams' Institution: USDA Economic Research Service Pages: 119 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Series Volume: Economic Research Report No. (ERR-201) Title: 'Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Adaptation in the U.S. Fieldcrop Sector' URL: https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=45496 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23629 _uuid: bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/climate-change-water-scarcity-adaptation-us-fieldcrop-sector href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0.yaml identifier: bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0 uri: /reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0 - attrs: Abstract: 'The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.' Author: 'Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1615922114 Date: 'March 21, 2017' Issue: 12 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: E2285-E2292 Title: Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity Volume: 114 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21170 _uuid: c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1615922114 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903.yaml identifier: c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903 uri: /reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903 - attrs: Abstract: 'The Southwestern US is a five-state region that has supported animal agriculture since the late 16th Century when European settlers crossed the Rio Grande into present day west Texas and southern New Mexico with herds of cattle, sheep, goats and horses. For the past 400 years the rangeland livestock industry, in its many forms and manifestations, has developed management strategies and conservation practices that impart resilience to the climatic extremes, especially prolonged droughts, that are common and extensive across this region. Livestock production from rangelands in the southwest (SW) is adapted to low rainfall and high ambient temperatures, but will have to continue to adapt management strategies, such as reduced stocking rates, proper grazing management practices, employing animal genetics suited to arid environments with less herbaceous production, erosion control conservation practices, and alternative forage supplies, in an increasingly arid and variable climatic environment. Even though the aging demographics of western ranchers could be a deterrent to implementing various adaptations, there are examples of creative management coalitions to cope with climatic change that are emerging in the SW that can serve as instructive examples. More importantly, there are additional opportunities for incorporation of transformative practices and technologies that can sustain animal agriculture in the SW in a warmer environment. Animal agriculture in the SW is inherently resilient, and has the capacity to adapt and transform as needed to the climatic changes that are now occurring and will continue to occur across this region. However, producers and land managers will need to thoroughly understand the vulnerabilities and sensitivities that face them as well as the ecological characteristics of their specific landscapes in order to cope with the emerging climatic changes across the SW region.' Author: 'Havstad, K. M.; Brown, J. R.; Estell, R.; Elias, E.; Rango, A.; Steele, C.' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1834-7 Date: November 08 ISSN: 1573-1480 Journal: Climatic Change Title: Vulnerabilities of southwestern U.S. rangeland-based animal agriculture to climate change Type of Article: journal article Year: 2016 _record_number: 23531 _uuid: c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-016-1834-7 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e.yaml identifier: c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e uri: /reference/c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e - attrs: Abstract: 'While most models project large increases in agricultural drought frequency and severity in the 21st century, significant uncertainties exist in these projections. Here, we compare the model-simulated changes with observation-based estimates since 1900 and examine model projections from both the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index with the Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm) as a measure of agricultural drought. Results show that estimated long-term changes in global and hemispheric drought areas from 1900 to 2014 are consistent with the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-simulated response to historical greenhouse gases and other external forcing, with the short-term variations within the model spread of internal variability, despite that regional changes are still dominated by internal variability. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models project continued increases (by 50–200 % in a relative sense) in the 21st century in global agricultural drought frequency and area even under low-moderate emissions scenarios, resulting from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the sc_PDSI_pm. This flattening is especially pronounced over the Northern Hemisphere land, leading to increased drought frequency even over areas with increasing sc_PDSI_pm. Large differences exist in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-projected precipitation and drought changes over the Sahel and northern Australia due to uncertainties in simulating the African Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the subsidence zone over northern Australia, while the wetting trend over East Africa reflects a robust response of the Indian Ocean ITCZ seen in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. While warming-induced PET increases over all latitudes and precipitation decreases over subtropical land are responsible for mean sc_PDSI_pm decreases, the exact cause of its PDF flattening needs further investigation.' Author: 'Zhao, Tianbao; Dai, Aiguo' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1742-x Date: October 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 3 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 535-548 Title: 'Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: Model-simulated historical and future drought changes' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 144 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23595 _uuid: c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-016-1742-x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615.yaml identifier: c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615 uri: /reference/c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615 - attrs: Author: 'Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; Reynolds, M. P.; Alderman, P. D.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Koehler, A. K.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ruane, A. C.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P. J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2470 Date: 12/22/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 143-147 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production Volume: 5 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23497 _uuid: c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2470 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77.yaml identifier: c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77 uri: /reference/c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77 - attrs: Author: 'Peterson, Alexander G.; Abatzoglou, John T.' DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059266 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 6 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: phenology; spring freeze; biosphere-atmosphere interaction; false springs; sensitivity analysis; climate change; 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions; 1637 Regional climate change; 1630 Impacts of global change; 1843 Land/atmosphere interactions; 3305 Climate change and variability Pages: 2156-2162 Title: Observed changes in false springs over the contiguous United States Volume: 41 Year: 2014 _record_number: 23437 _uuid: dcd0b157-c8af-44c1-a0f9-ce824c551b03 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2014GL059266 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dcd0b157-c8af-44c1-a0f9-ce824c551b03.yaml identifier: dcd0b157-c8af-44c1-a0f9-ce824c551b03 uri: /reference/dcd0b157-c8af-44c1-a0f9-ce824c551b03 - attrs: Author: 'Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.' DOI: 10.1038/ncomms6989 Date: 01/22/online Journal: Nature Communications Pages: 5989 Publisher: The Author(s) Title: Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability Type of Article: Article Volume: 6 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23571 _uuid: dcf14e95-6370-4d19-b975-33fc290cffae reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/ncomms6989 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dcf14e95-6370-4d19-b975-33fc290cffae.yaml identifier: dcf14e95-6370-4d19-b975-33fc290cffae uri: /reference/dcf14e95-6370-4d19-b975-33fc290cffae