--- - attrs: Author: 'Paustian, Keith; Lehmann, Johannes; Ogle, Stephen; Reay, David; Robertson, G. Philip; Smith, Pete' DOI: 10.1038/nature17174 Date: 04/06/online Journal: Nature Pages: 49-57 Publisher: 'Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.' Title: Climate-smart soils Type of Article: Perspective Volume: 532 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23567 _uuid: 5e24bc5b-9bbc-4c3b-b990-bf22e3359c7f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nature17174 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5e24bc5b-9bbc-4c3b-b990-bf22e3359c7f.yaml identifier: 5e24bc5b-9bbc-4c3b-b990-bf22e3359c7f uri: /reference/5e24bc5b-9bbc-4c3b-b990-bf22e3359c7f - attrs: Author: 'Basso, Bruno; Kendall, Anthony D.; Hyndman, David W.' DOI: 10.1002/2013EF000107 ISSN: 2328-4277 Issue: 1 Journal: Earth's Future Keywords: Ogallala; water; sustainability; crops; 0402 Agricultural systems; 0485 Science policy; 1818 Evapotranspiration; 1842 Irrigation; 1829 Groundwater hydrology Pages: 39-41 Publisher: 'Wiley Periodicals, Inc.' Title: 'The future of agriculture over the Ogallala Aquifer: Solutions to grow crops more efficiently with limited water' Volume: 1 Year: 2013 _record_number: 23498 _uuid: 5e5f73a6-3e08-4f6f-8e36-e3eeefd225af reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2013EF000107 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5e5f73a6-3e08-4f6f-8e36-e3eeefd225af.yaml identifier: 5e5f73a6-3e08-4f6f-8e36-e3eeefd225af uri: /reference/5e5f73a6-3e08-4f6f-8e36-e3eeefd225af - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Fann, Neal; Brennan, Terry; Dolwick, Patrick; Gamble, Janet L.; Ilacqua, Vito; Kolb, Laura; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Ziska, Lewis' Book Title: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment' DOI: 10.7930/J0GQ6VP6 Pages: 69–98 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Ch. 3: Air quality impacts' Year: 2016 _record_number: 19375 _uuid: 5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/air-quality-impacts href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690.yaml identifier: 5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690 uri: /reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690 - attrs: Author: 'Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan; Webber, Heidi; Gaiser, Thomas; Naab, Jesse; Ewert, Frank' DOI: 10.1016/j.eja.2014.10.003 Date: 2015/03/01/ ISSN: 1161-0301 Journal: European Journal of Agronomy Keywords: High temperature; Heat stress; Cereal yield; Climate change impact; Crop modelling Pages: 98-113 Title: 'Heat stress in cereals: Mechanisms and modelling' Volume: 64 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23518 _uuid: 5efee6e4-446c-4242-a52d-e00f09323e76 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.eja.2014.10.003 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5efee6e4-446c-4242-a52d-e00f09323e76.yaml identifier: 5efee6e4-446c-4242-a52d-e00f09323e76 uri: /reference/5efee6e4-446c-4242-a52d-e00f09323e76 - attrs: Abstract: 'In order for agricultural systems to successfully mitigate and adapt to climate change there is a need to coordinate and prioritize next steps for research and extension. This includes focusing on “win-win” management practices that simultaneously provide short-term benefits to farmers and improve the sustainability and resiliency of agricultural systems with respect to climate change. In the Northwest U.S., a collaborative process has been used to engage individuals spanning the research-practice continuum. This collaborative approach was utilized at a 2016 workshop titled “Agriculture in a Changing Climate,” that included a broad range of participants including university faculty and students, crop and livestock producers, and individuals representing state, tribal and federal government agencies, industry, nonprofit organizations, and conservation districts. The Northwest U.S. encompasses a range of agro-ecological systems and diverse geographic and climatic contexts. Regional research and science communication efforts for climate change and agriculture have a strong history of engaging diverse stakeholders. These features of the Northwest U.S. provide a foundation for the collaborative research and extension prioritization presented here. We focus on identifying research and extension actions that can be taken over the next five years in four areas identified as important areas by conference organizers and participants: (1) cropping systems, (2) livestock systems, (3) decision support systems to support consideration of climate change in agricultural management decisions; and (4) partnerships among researchers and stakeholders. We couple insights from the workshop and a review of current literature to articulate current scientific understanding, and priorities recommended by workshop participants that target existing knowledge gaps, challenges, and opportunities. Priorities defined at the Agriculture in a Changing Climate workshop highlight the need for ongoing investment in interdisciplinary research integrating social, economic and biophysical sciences, strategic collaborations, and knowledge sharing to develop actionable science that can support informed decision-making in the agriculture sector as the climate changes.' Author: 'Yorgey, Georgine G.; Hall, Sonia A.; Allen, Elizabeth R.; Whitefield, Elizabeth M.; Embertson, Nichole M.; Jones, Vincent P.; Saari, Brooke R.; Rajagopalan, Kirti; Roesch-McNally, Gabrielle E.; Van Horne, Beatrice; Abatzoglou, John T.; Collins, Harold P.; Houston, Laurie L.; Ewing, Timothy W.; Kruger, Chad E.' Author Address: 'Georgine G. Yorgey,Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University,Mount Vernon, WA, United States,yorgey@wsu.edu' DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2017.00052 Date: 2017-August-31 ISSN: 2296-665X Journal: Frontiers in Environmental Science Keywords: 'Actionable science,Climate services,Knowledge coproduction,Climate Change,mitigation,adaptation,Agriculture,Stakeholders' Language: English Pages: 52 Short Title: none. Title: 'Northwest U.S. agriculture in a changing climate: Collaboratively defined research and extension priorities' Type of Article: Review Volume: 5 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23649 _uuid: 5f9f9d47-4e3b-486f-ac1c-9cb10354ba42 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3389/fenvs.2017.00052 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5f9f9d47-4e3b-486f-ac1c-9cb10354ba42.yaml identifier: 5f9f9d47-4e3b-486f-ac1c-9cb10354ba42 uri: /reference/5f9f9d47-4e3b-486f-ac1c-9cb10354ba42 - attrs: Abstract: 'Climate change is caused by the release of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate change will impact many activities, but its effects on agricultural production could be acute. Estimates of annual damages in agriculture due to temperature increase or extended periods of drought will be more costly than damages in other activities. Yield losses are caused both by direct effects of climate change on crops and by indirect effects such as increased inputs in crop production for weed control. One possible solution to counteract the effects of climate change is to seek crop cultivars that are adapted to highly variable, extreme climatic conditions and pest changes. Here we review the effects of climate change on crop cultivars and weeds. Biomass increase will augment marketable yield by 8–70 % for C3 cereals, by 20–144 % for cash and vegetable crops, and by 6–35 % for flowers. Such positive effects could however be reduced by decreasing water and nutrient availability. Rising temperature will decrease yields of temperature-sensitive crops such as maize, soybean, wheat, and cotton or specialty crops such as almonds, grapes, berries, citrus, or stone fruits. Rice, which is expected to yield better under increased CO2, will suffer serious yield losses under high temperatures. Drought stress should decrease the production of tomato, soybean, maize, and cotton. Nevertheless, reviews on C4 photosynthesis response to water stress in interaction with CO2 concentration reveal that elevated CO2 concentration lessens the deleterious effect of drought on plant productivity. C3 weeds respond more strongly than C4 types to CO2 increases through biomass and leaf area increases. The positive response of C3 crops to elevated CO2 may make C4 weeds less competitive for C3 crops, whereas C3 weeds in C4 or C3 crops could become a problem, particularly in tropical regions. Temperature increases will mainly affect the distribution of weeds, particularly C4 type, by expanding their geographical range. This will enhance further yield losses and will affect weed management systems negatively. In addition, the expansion of invasive weed species such as itchgrass, cogongrass, and witchweed facilitated by temperature increases will increase the cost for their control. Under water or nutrient shortage scenarios, an r-strategist with characteristics in the order S-C-R, such as Palmer amaranth, large crabgrass, johnsongrass, and spurges, will most probably prevail. Selection of cultivars that secure high yields under climate change but also by competing weeds is of major importance. Traits related with (a) increased root/shoot ratio, (b) vernalization periods, (c) maturity, (d) regulation of node formation and/or internode distance, (e) harvest index variations, and (f) allelopathy merit further investigation. The cumulative effects of selecting a suitable stress tolerator-competitor cultivar will be reflected in reductions of environmental pollution, lower production costs, and sustainable food production.' Author: 'Korres, Nicholas E.; Norsworthy, Jason K.; Tehranchian, Parsa; Gitsopoulos, Thomas K.; Loka, Dimitra A.; Oosterhuis, Derrick M.; Gealy, David R.; Moss, Stephen R.; Burgos, Nilda R.; Miller, M. Ryan; Palhano, Matheus' DOI: 10.1007/s13593-016-0350-5 Date: February 18 ISSN: 1773-0155 Issue: 1 Journal: Agronomy for Sustainable Development Pages: 12 Title: 'Cultivars to face climate change effects on crops and weeds: A review' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 36 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23549 _uuid: 604251b9-8cc1-4971-80cc-ea973e16fd48 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s13593-016-0350-5 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/604251b9-8cc1-4971-80cc-ea973e16fd48.yaml identifier: 604251b9-8cc1-4971-80cc-ea973e16fd48 uri: /reference/604251b9-8cc1-4971-80cc-ea973e16fd48 - attrs: Abstract: 'Corn’s (Zea mays L.) stover is a potential nonfood, herbaceous bioenergy feedstock. A vital aspect of utilizing stover for bioenergy production is to establish sustainable harvest criteria that avoid exacerbating soil erosion or degrading soil organic carbon (SOC) levels. Our goal is to empirically estimate the minimum residue return rate required to sustain SOC levels at numerous locations and to identify which macroscale factors affect empirical estimates. Minimum residue return rate is conceptually useful, but only if the study is of long enough duration and a relationship between the rate of residue returned and the change in SOC can be measured. About one third of the Corn Stover Regional Partnership team (Team) sites met these criteria with a minimum residue return rate of 3.9 ± 2.18 Mg stover ha−1 yr−1, n = 6. Based on the Team and published corn-based data (n = 35), minimum residue return rate was 6.38 ± 2.19 Mg stover ha−1 yr−1, while including data from other cropping systems (n = 49), the rate averaged 5.74 ± 2.36 Mg residue ha−1 yr−1. In broad general terms, keeping about 6 Mg residue ha−1 yr−1 maybe a useful generic rate as a point of discussion; however, these analyses refute that a generic rate represents a universal target on which to base harvest recommendations at a given site. Empirical data are needed to calibrate, validate, and refine process-based models so that valid sustainable harvest rate guidelines are provided to producers, industry, and action agencies.' Author: 'Johnson, Jane M. F.; Novak, Jeff M.; Varvel, Gary E.; Stott, Diane E.; Osborne, Shannon L.; Karlen, Douglas L.; Lamb, John A.; Baker, John; Adler, Paul R.' DOI: 10.1007/s12155-013-9402-8 Date: June 01 ISSN: 1939-1242 Issue: 2 Journal: BioEnergy Research Pages: 481-490 Title: 'Crop residue mass needed to maintain soil organic carbon levels: Can it be determined?' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 7 Year: 2014 _record_number: 25557 _uuid: 6068acd3-15de-48bb-9e87-c0b9868040ce reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s12155-013-9402-8 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6068acd3-15de-48bb-9e87-c0b9868040ce.yaml identifier: 6068acd3-15de-48bb-9e87-c0b9868040ce uri: /reference/6068acd3-15de-48bb-9e87-c0b9868040ce - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Engle, Nathan L.' DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.019 ISSN: 1872-9495 Issue: 2 Journal: Global Environmental Change Pages: 647-656 Title: Adaptive capacity and its assessment Volume: 21 Year: 2011 _record_number: 19323 _uuid: 611d5fd8-8410-485d-a27d-7b9f961778d9 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.019 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/611d5fd8-8410-485d-a27d-7b9f961778d9.yaml identifier: 611d5fd8-8410-485d-a27d-7b9f961778d9 uri: /reference/611d5fd8-8410-485d-a27d-7b9f961778d9 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division,' Institution: U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Pages: 46 Place Published: 'New York, NY' Title: 'World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. Key Findings and Advance Tables ' URL: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2017_KeyFindings.pdf Year: 2017 _record_number: 23651 _uuid: 61f9a80b-d48e-4b6a-88fd-8f0e527d0bbb reftype: Report child_publication: /report/world-population-prospects-2017-revision-key-findings-advance-tables href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/61f9a80b-d48e-4b6a-88fd-8f0e527d0bbb.yaml identifier: 61f9a80b-d48e-4b6a-88fd-8f0e527d0bbb uri: /reference/61f9a80b-d48e-4b6a-88fd-8f0e527d0bbb - attrs: .reference_type: 9 DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4612-3322-0 Editor: 'Lal, R.; Stewart, B. A.' ISBN: 978-1-4612-7966-2 Number of Pages: 345 Place Published: New York Publisher: Springer Series Title: Advances in Soil Science 11 Title: Soil Degradation Year: 1990 _record_number: 23626 _uuid: 6393ec63-0139-465b-9835-fc665681bb6a reftype: Edited Book child_publication: /book/soil-degradation href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6393ec63-0139-465b-9835-fc665681bb6a.yaml identifier: 6393ec63-0139-465b-9835-fc665681bb6a uri: /reference/6393ec63-0139-465b-9835-fc665681bb6a - attrs: Abstract: 'Phytoplankton are at the base of aquatic food webs and of global importance for ecosystem functioning and services. The dynamics of these photosynthetic cells are linked to annual fluctuations of temperature, water column mixing, resource availability, and consumption. Climate can modify these environmental factors and alter phytoplankton structure, seasonal dynamics, and taxonomic composition. Here, we review mechanistic links between climate alterations and factors limiting primary production, and highlight studies where climate change has had a clear impact on phytoplankton processes. Climate affects phytoplankton both directly through physiology and indirectly by changing water column stratification and resource availability, mainly nutrients and light, or intensified grazing by heterotrophs. These modifications affect various phytoplankton processes, and a widespread advance in phytoplankton spring bloom timing and changing bloom magnitudes have both been observed. Climate warming also affects phytoplankton species composition and size structure, and favors species traits best adapted to changing conditions associated with climate change. Shifts in phytoplankton can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. An improved understanding of the mechanistic links between climate and phytoplankton dynamics is important for predicting climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems.' Author: 'Winder, Monika; Sommer, Ulrich' DOI: 10.1007/s10750-012-1149-2 Date: November 01 ISSN: 1573-5117 Issue: 1 Journal: Hydrobiologia Pages: 5-16 Title: Phytoplankton response to a changing climate Type of Article: journal article Volume: 698 Year: 2012 _record_number: 25531 _uuid: 63a0e798-02db-4bea-914c-f3ce0fb2f75d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10750-012-1149-2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/63a0e798-02db-4bea-914c-f3ce0fb2f75d.yaml identifier: 63a0e798-02db-4bea-914c-f3ce0fb2f75d uri: /reference/63a0e798-02db-4bea-914c-f3ce0fb2f75d - attrs: Abstract: 'In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring–summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.' Author: 'Gammans, Matthew; Pierre Mérel; Ariel Ortiz-Bobea' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b0c ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 5 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 054007 Title: 'Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: Statistical evidence from France' Volume: 12 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23522 _uuid: 63db2021-16af-4542-a6ca-c8c35406118d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b0c href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/63db2021-16af-4542-a6ca-c8c35406118d.yaml identifier: 63db2021-16af-4542-a6ca-c8c35406118d uri: /reference/63db2021-16af-4542-a6ca-c8c35406118d - attrs: Abstract: "Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems—agriculture, fisheries, and livestock—as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution." Author: 'Myers, Samuel S.; Matthew R. Smith; Sarah Guth; Christopher D. Golden; Bapu Vaitla; Nathaniel D. Mueller; Alan D. Dangour; Peter Huybers' DOI: 10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044356 Issue: 1 Journal: Annual Review of Public Health Keywords: 'planetary health,global health,climate change,food security,malnutrition,global environmental change' Pages: 259-277 Title: 'Climate change and global food systems: Potential impacts on food security and undernutrition' Volume: 38 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23236 _uuid: 646126e1-2c39-4498-891f-a7d36d902899 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044356 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/646126e1-2c39-4498-891f-a7d36d902899.yaml identifier: 646126e1-2c39-4498-891f-a7d36d902899 uri: /reference/646126e1-2c39-4498-891f-a7d36d902899 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Abstract: 'Climate change has the potential to impact the quantity and reliability of forage production, quality of forage, water demand for cultivation of forage crops, as well as large-scale rangeland vegetation patterns. The most visible effect of climate change will be on the primary productivity of forage crops and rangelands. Developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries because of the predominance of agriculture in their economies and their warmer baseline climates, besides their limited resources to adapt to newer technologies. In the coming decades, crops and forage plants will continue to be subjected to warmer temperatures, elevated carbon dioxide, as well as wildly fluctuating water availability due to changing precipitation patterns. The interplay among these factors will decide the actual impact on plant growth and yield. Elevated CO2 levels are likely to promote dry matter production in C3 plants more as compared to C4 plants, and the quantum of response is dependent on the interactions among the nature of crop, soil moisture, and soil nutrient availability. Due to the wide fluctuations in distribution of rainfall in growing season in several regions of the world, the forage production will be greatly impacted. As the agricultural sector is the largest user of freshwater resources, the dwindling water supplies will adversely affect the forage crop production. With proper adaptation measures ably supported by suitable policies by the governments, it is possible to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change and ensure livestock productivity through optimum forage availability.' Author: 'Giridhar, Kandalam; Samireddypalle, Anandan' Book Title: 'Climate Change Impact on Livestock: Adaptation and Mitigation' DOI: 10.1007/978-81-322-2265-1_7 Editor: 'Sejian, Veerasamy; Gaughan, John; Baumgard, Lance; Prasad, Cadaba' ISBN: 978-81-322-2265-1 Pages: 97-112 Place Published: New Delhi Publisher: Springer India Title: Impact of climate change on forage availability for livestock Year: 2015 _record_number: 23523 _uuid: 676460b0-0aba-4f86-9de6-7a5c2ec510ce reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/450ecae7-e1f5-46fc-88ed-382165034bb6 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/676460b0-0aba-4f86-9de6-7a5c2ec510ce.yaml identifier: 676460b0-0aba-4f86-9de6-7a5c2ec510ce uri: /reference/676460b0-0aba-4f86-9de6-7a5c2ec510ce - attrs: Author: 'Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K; Alderman, Phillip D; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A; Izaurralde, Roberto C; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D; Kersebaum, Kurt C; Kimball, Bruce A; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O’Leary, Garry J; Olesen, Jørgen E; Ottman, Michael J; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P.  V  Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A  M; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E; Rötter, Reimund P; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3115 Date: 09/12/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 1130-1136 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods Type of Article: Article Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23554 _uuid: 68ae490c-ab1d-4cf6-9e49-1d55448c154a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3115 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/68ae490c-ab1d-4cf6-9e49-1d55448c154a.yaml identifier: 68ae490c-ab1d-4cf6-9e49-1d55448c154a uri: /reference/68ae490c-ab1d-4cf6-9e49-1d55448c154a - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Asfaw, Solomon; Lipper, Leslie' Institution: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Pages: 15 Place Published: 'Rome, Italy' Series Volume: I5402E/1/04.16 Title: Managing climate risk using climate-smart agriculture URL: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5402e.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 23597 _uuid: 69093ab2-65af-4a0d-bd43-b0b1936110cb reftype: Report child_publication: /report/managing-climate-risk-using-climate-smart-agriculture href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/69093ab2-65af-4a0d-bd43-b0b1936110cb.yaml identifier: 69093ab2-65af-4a0d-bd43-b0b1936110cb uri: /reference/69093ab2-65af-4a0d-bd43-b0b1936110cb - attrs: Abstract: 'Numerous models and indices exist that attempt to characterize the effect of environmental factors on the comfort of animals and humans. Heat and cold indices have been utilized to adjust ambient temperature (Ta) for the effects of relative humidity (RH) or wind speed (WS) or both for the purposes of obtaining a "feels-like" or apparent temperature. However, no model has been found that incorporates adjustments for RH, WS, and radiation (RAD) over conditions that encompass hot and cold environmental conditions. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive climate index (CCI) that has application under a wide range of environmental conditions and provides an adjustment to Ta for RH, WS, and RAD. Environmental data were compiled from 9 separate summer periods in which heat stress events occurred and from 6 different winter periods to develop and validate the CCI. The RH adjustment is derived from an exponential relationship between Ta and RH with temperature being adjusted up or down from an RH value of 30%. At 45°C, the temperature adjustment for increasing RH from 30 to 100% equals approximately 16°C, whereas at -30°C temperature adjustments due to increasing RH from 30 to 100% equal approximately -3.0°C, with greater RH values contributing to a reduced apparent temperature under cold conditions. The relationship between WS and temperature adjustments was also determined to be exponential with a logarithmic adjustment to define appropriate declines in apparent temperature as WS increases. With this index, slower WS results in the greatest change in apparent temperature per unit of WS regardless of whether hot or cold conditions exist. As WS increases, the change in apparent temperature per unit of WS becomes less. Based on existing windchill and heat indices, the effect of WS on apparent temperature is sufficiently similar to allow one equation to be utilized under hot and cold conditions. The RAD component was separated into direct solar radiation and ground surface radiation. Both of these were found to have a linear relationship with Ta. This index will be useful for further development of biological response functions, which are associated with energy exchange, and improving decision-making processes, which are weather-dependent. In addition, the defined thresholds can serve as management and environmental mitigation guidelines to protect and ensure animal comfort.' Author: 'Mader, T. L.; Johnson, L. J.; Gaughan, J. B.' DOI: 10.2527/jas.2009-2586 Issue: 6 Journal: Journal of Animal Science Language: English Pages: 2153-2165 Title: A comprehensive index for assessing environmental stress in animals Volume: 88 Year: 2010 _record_number: 21227 _uuid: 6a1bc03d-a204-4f8c-9779-73ee5c44e413 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.2527/jas.2009-2586 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6a1bc03d-a204-4f8c-9779-73ee5c44e413.yaml identifier: 6a1bc03d-a204-4f8c-9779-73ee5c44e413 uri: /reference/6a1bc03d-a204-4f8c-9779-73ee5c44e413 - attrs: .publisher: 'Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.' .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Environmental phenomena are often observed first, and then explained quantitatively. The complexity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes manifest themselves to first order in simple ways: heavy precipitation intensification is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and model predictions made decades ago. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts.' Author: 'Fischer, E. M.; Knutti, R.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3110 Date: 11//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 11 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 986-991 Title: Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21055 _uuid: 6a85cf26-c057-4c91-b60e-9d9e58bbc41a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3110 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6a85cf26-c057-4c91-b60e-9d9e58bbc41a.yaml identifier: 6a85cf26-c057-4c91-b60e-9d9e58bbc41a uri: /reference/6a85cf26-c057-4c91-b60e-9d9e58bbc41a - attrs: Abstract: The term “flash drought” is currently used in an ambiguous manner in the scientific literature. We recommend that these climate features should be identified based on how rapidly they intensify. Author: 'Otkin, Jason A.; Mark Svoboda; Eric D. Hunt; Trent W. Ford; Martha C. Anderson; Christopher Hain; Jeffrey B. Basara' DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-17-0149.1 Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Pages: 911-919 Title: 'Flash droughts: A review and assessment of the challenges imposed by rapid onset droughts in the United States' Volume: 99 Year: 2018 _record_number: 25541 _uuid: 6afea23b-6196-4f63-8c69-59d8d538aeaf reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/bams-d-17-0149.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6afea23b-6196-4f63-8c69-59d8d538aeaf.yaml identifier: 6afea23b-6196-4f63-8c69-59d8d538aeaf uri: /reference/6afea23b-6196-4f63-8c69-59d8d538aeaf - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'McGuire, Virginia L.' DOI: 10.3133/sir20175040 Institution: U. S. Geological Survey Language: English Name of Database: USGS Publications Warehouse Pages: 24 Place Published: 'Reston, VA' Report Number: 2017-5040 Series Volume: Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5040 Title: 'Water-level and recoverable water in storage changes, High Plains aquifer, predevelopment to 2015 and 2013–15' Type: Report Year: 2017 _record_number: 23630 _uuid: 6d4637d5-5eb3-43c9-bb36-050b0ef08df5 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/water-level-recoverable-water-storage-changes-high-plains-aquifer-predevelopment-2015-201315 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6d4637d5-5eb3-43c9-bb36-050b0ef08df5.yaml identifier: 6d4637d5-5eb3-43c9-bb36-050b0ef08df5 uri: /reference/6d4637d5-5eb3-43c9-bb36-050b0ef08df5 - attrs: Author: 'Takle, Eugene S. Takle; David Gustafson; Roger Beachy; Gerald C. Nelson; Daniel Mason-D’Croz; Amanda Palazzo' DOI: '10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-34 ' Issue: 2013-34 Journal: 'Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal' Pages: 1-41 Title: 'US food security and climate change: Agricultural futures' Volume: 7 Year: 2013 _record_number: 21234 _uuid: 6e8fbacd-aff6-48ab-a950-5a8df2799046 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-34%20 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6e8fbacd-aff6-48ab-a950-5a8df2799046.yaml identifier: 6e8fbacd-aff6-48ab-a950-5a8df2799046 uri: /reference/6e8fbacd-aff6-48ab-a950-5a8df2799046 - attrs: Abstract: 'A 52-yr record of dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay (1950–2001) and a record of nitrate (NO3 −) loading by the Susquehanna River spanning a longer period (1903, 1945–2001) were assembled to describe the long-term pattern of hypoxia and anoxia in Chesapeake Bay and its relationship to NO3 − loading. The effect of freshwater inflow on NO3 − loading and hypoxia was also examined to characterize its effect at internannual and longer time scales. Year to year variability in river flow accounted for some of the observed changes in hypoxic volume, but the long-term increase was not due to increased river flow. From 1950–2001, the volume of hypoxic water in mid summer increased substantially and at an accelerating rate. Predicted anoxic volume (DO<0.2 mg I−1) at average river flow increased from zero in 1950 to 3.6×109 m3 in 2001. Severe hypoxia (DO<1.0 mg I−1) increased from 1.6×109 to 6.5×109 m3 over the same period, while mild hypoxia (DO<2.0 mg I−1) increased from 3.4×109 to 9.2×109 m3. NO3 − concentrations in the Susquehanna River at Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, increased up to 3-fold from 1945 to a 1989 maximum and declined through 2001. On a decadal average basis, the superposition of changes in river flow on the long-term increase in NO3 − resulted in a 2-fold increase in NO3 − loading from the Susquehanna River during the 1960s to 1970s. Decadal average loads were subsequently stable through the 1990s. Hypoxia was positively correlated with NO3 − loading, but more extensive hypoxia was observed in recent years than would be expected from the observed relationship. The results suggested that the Bay may have become more susceptible to NO3 − loading. To eliminate or greatly reduce anoxia will require reducing average annual total nitrogen loading to the Maryland mainstem Bay to 50×106 kg yr−1, a reduction of 40% from recent levels.' Author: 'Hagy, James D.; Boynton, Walter R.; Keefe, Carolyn W.; Wood, Kathryn V.' DOI: 10.1007/bf02907650 Date: August 01 ISSN: 0160-8347 Issue: 4 Journal: Estuaries Pages: 634-658 Title: 'Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay, 1950–2001: Long-term change in relation to nutrient loading and river flow' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 27 Year: 2004 _record_number: 25566 _uuid: 71715436-ea0a-4497-8f82-dc376bb4e5d3 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/bf02907650 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/71715436-ea0a-4497-8f82-dc376bb4e5d3.yaml identifier: 71715436-ea0a-4497-8f82-dc376bb4e5d3 uri: /reference/71715436-ea0a-4497-8f82-dc376bb4e5d3 - attrs: Author: 'Burke, Marshall; Emerick, Kyle' DOI: 10.1257/pol.20130025 Issue: 3 Journal: 'American Economic Journal: Economic Policy' Pages: 106-40 Title: 'Adaptation to climate change: Evidence from US agriculture' Volume: 8 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23508 _uuid: 7266e04a-9ec1-49cd-9e71-6b9502733ec0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1257/pol.20130025 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7266e04a-9ec1-49cd-9e71-6b9502733ec0.yaml identifier: 7266e04a-9ec1-49cd-9e71-6b9502733ec0 uri: /reference/7266e04a-9ec1-49cd-9e71-6b9502733ec0 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Myers, Samuel S.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Kloog, Itai; Huybers, Peter; Leakey, Andrew D. B.; Bloom, Arnold J.; Carlisle, Eli; Dietterich, Lee H.; Fitzgerald, Glenn; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Holbrook, N. Michele; Nelson, Randall L.; Ottman, Michael J.; Raboy, Victor; Sakai, Hidemitsu; Sartor, Karla A.; Schwartz, Joel; Seneweera, Saman; Tausz, Michael; Usui, Yasuhiro' DOI: 10.1038/nature13179 ISSN: 1476-4687 Issue: 7503 Journal: Nature Pages: 139-142 Title: Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition Volume: 510 Year: 2014 _chapter: Ch6 _record_number: 16207 _uuid: 7287b49d-8c0d-4f11-95f2-c565c2dd2ee9 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nature13179 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7287b49d-8c0d-4f11-95f2-c565c2dd2ee9.yaml identifier: 7287b49d-8c0d-4f11-95f2-c565c2dd2ee9 uri: /reference/7287b49d-8c0d-4f11-95f2-c565c2dd2ee9 - attrs: Abstract: 'Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985–2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September−May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.' Author: 'Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1415181112 Date: 'June 2, 2015' Issue: 22 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 6931-6936 Title: Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields Volume: 112 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23582 _uuid: 72962214-b93d-4ced-b773-156135252d2d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1415181112 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/72962214-b93d-4ced-b773-156135252d2d.yaml identifier: 72962214-b93d-4ced-b773-156135252d2d uri: /reference/72962214-b93d-4ced-b773-156135252d2d - attrs: Author: 'Rojas-Downing, M. Melissa; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Harrigan, Timothy; Woznicki, Sean A.' DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2017.02.001 Date: 2017/01/01/ ISSN: 2212-0963 Journal: Climate Risk Management Keywords: Livestock; Climate change; Heat stress; Greenhouse gas; Adaptation; Mitigation Pages: 145-163 Title: 'Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation' Volume: 16 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23574 _uuid: 75a1f815-6b15-4597-abb5-859d8be2d4f1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.crm.2017.02.001 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/75a1f815-6b15-4597-abb5-859d8be2d4f1.yaml identifier: 75a1f815-6b15-4597-abb5-859d8be2d4f1 uri: /reference/75a1f815-6b15-4597-abb5-859d8be2d4f1 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: USGCRP DOI: 10.7930/J0J964J6 Pages: 470 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Secondary Author: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' Year: 2017 _record_number: 21557 _uuid: 75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1.yaml identifier: 75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1 uri: /reference/75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Abstract: 'Genetically engineered (GE) crops were first introduced commercially in the 1990s. After two decades of production, some groups and individuals remain critical of the technology based on their concerns about possible adverse effects on human health, the environment, and ethical considerations. At the same time, others are concerned that the technology is not reaching its potential to improve human health and the environment because of stringent regulations and reduced public funding to develop products offering more benefits to society. While the debate about these and other questions related to the genetic engineering techniques of the first 20 years goes on, emerging genetic-engineering technologies are adding new complexities to the conversation. Genetically Engineered Crops builds on previous related Academies reports published between 1987 and 2010 by undertaking a retrospective examination of the purported positive and adverse effects of GE crops and to anticipate what emerging genetic-engineering technologies hold for the future. This report indicates where there are uncertainties about the economic, agronomic, health, safety, or other impacts of GE crops and food, and makes recommendations to fill gaps in safety assessments, increase regulatory clarity, and improve innovations in and access to GE technology.' Author: 'Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources (BANR),' DOI: 10.17226/23395 ISBN: 978-0-309-43738-7 Keywords: Biology and Life Sciences; Agriculture Language: English Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: The National Academies Press Title: 'Genetically Engineered Crops: Experiences and Prospects' Year: 2016 _record_number: 23598 _uuid: 767d24b2-e102-4199-86a3-ba3c48fc93d5 reftype: Book child_publication: /book/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-prospects href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/767d24b2-e102-4199-86a3-ba3c48fc93d5.yaml identifier: 767d24b2-e102-4199-86a3-ba3c48fc93d5 uri: /reference/767d24b2-e102-4199-86a3-ba3c48fc93d5 - attrs: Author: 'Delgado, Jorge A.; Gantzer, Clark J.' DOI: 10.2489/jswc.70.6.142A Date: 'November 1, 2015' Issue: 6 Journal: Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Pages: 142A-145A Title: The 4Rs for cover crops and other advances in cover crop management for environmental quality Volume: 70 Year: 2015 _record_number: 25576 _uuid: 76e90b6b-7c3e-465a-a0e1-b1322c415295 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.2489/jswc.70.6.142A href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/76e90b6b-7c3e-465a-a0e1-b1322c415295.yaml identifier: 76e90b6b-7c3e-465a-a0e1-b1322c415295 uri: /reference/76e90b6b-7c3e-465a-a0e1-b1322c415295 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance. Hot extremes have been shown to be induced by surface moisture deficits in some regions. In this study, we assess whether such a relationship holds at the global scale. We find that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions’ hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. The occurrence probability of an above-average number of hot days is over 70% after precipitation deficits in most parts of South America as well as the Iberian Peninsula and Eastern Australia, and over 60% in most of North America and Eastern Europe, while it is below 30–40% after wet conditions in these regions. Using quantile regression analyses, we show that the impact of precipitation deficits on the number of hot days is asymmetric, i.e. extreme high numbers of hot days are most strongly influenced. This relationship also applies to the 2011 extreme event in Texas. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed. ' Author: "Mueller, B.\rS.I. Seneviratne" DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109 ISSN: 0027-8424 Issue: 31 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Keywords: 'hot day prediction; soil moisture–temperature coupling; standardized precipitation index; temperature extremes; ' Pages: 12398-12403 Title: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale URL: http://www.pnas.org/content/109/31/12398.full.pdf+html Volume: 109 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2"]' _record_number: 2121 _uuid: 77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1204330109 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b.yaml identifier: 77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b uri: /reference/77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b - attrs: Author: 'Brown, Jesslyn F.; Pervez, Md Shahriar' DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2014.01.004 Date: 2014/05/01/ ISSN: 0308-521X Journal: Agricultural Systems Keywords: Irrigated agriculture; Remote sensing; Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; High Plains Aquifer; Geospatial model Pages: 28-40 Title: Merging remote sensing data and national agricultural statistics to model change in irrigated agriculture Volume: 127 Year: 2014 _record_number: 25453 _uuid: 780e0eeb-2c8e-4d64-a1c2-d3a0c8eafdf0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.agsy.2014.01.004 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/780e0eeb-2c8e-4d64-a1c2-d3a0c8eafdf0.yaml identifier: 780e0eeb-2c8e-4d64-a1c2-d3a0c8eafdf0 uri: /reference/780e0eeb-2c8e-4d64-a1c2-d3a0c8eafdf0 - attrs: Abstract: 'Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.' Author: 'Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Peñuelas, Josep; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701762114 Date: 'August 29, 2017' Issue: 35 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 9326-9331 Title: Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates Volume: 114 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23596 _uuid: 79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1701762114 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1.yaml identifier: 79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1 uri: /reference/79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1 - attrs: Abstract: 'Workers employed in outdoor occupations such as farming are exposed to hot and humid environments that put them at risk for heat-related illness or death. This report describes one such death and summarizes heat-related fatalities among crop production workers in the United States during 1992--2006. During this 15-year period, 423 workers in agricultural and nonagricultural industries were reported to have died from exposure to environmental heat; 68 (16%) of these workers were engaged in crop production or support activities for crop production. The heat-related average annual death rate for these crop workers was 0.39 per 100,000 workers, compared with 0.02 for all U.S. civilian workers. Data aggregated into 5-year periods indicated that heat-related death rates among crop workers might be increasing; however, trend analysis did not indicate a statistically significant increase. Prevention of heat-related deaths among crop workers requires educating employers and workers on the hazards of working in hot environments, including recognition of heat-related illness symptoms, and implementing appropriate heat stress management measures.' Author: 'CDC,' Date: Jun 20 ISSN: "1545-861X (Electronic)\r0149-2195 (Linking)" Issue: 24 Journal: 'MMWR: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report' Keywords: Adult; Agriculture/*statistics & numerical data; Female; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Occupational Diseases/*mortality; United States/epidemiology Pages: 649-653 Title: 'Heat-related deaths among crop workers—United States, 1992–2006' URL: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18566563 Volume: 57 Year: 2008 _chapter: Ch9 _record_number: 16418 _uuid: 79a8b35d-8f50-44c3-ba7d-a8c76f407620 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/pmid-18566563 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/79a8b35d-8f50-44c3-ba7d-a8c76f407620.yaml identifier: 79a8b35d-8f50-44c3-ba7d-a8c76f407620 uri: /reference/79a8b35d-8f50-44c3-ba7d-a8c76f407620 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Woodson, Randy' Institution: American Association for the Advancement of Science Notes: 'View lecture at ' Pages: 19 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Title: The Role of U.S. Research Universities in Meeting the Global Food Security Challenge. 2016 AAAS Charles Valentine Riley Memorial Lecture URL: https://mcmprodaaas.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2016%20AAAS%20Riley%20Lecture%20Proceedings.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 23648 _uuid: 7b611026-369a-4547-ba58-050bd46b7b25 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/role-us-research-universities-meeting-global-food-security-challenge-2016-aaas-charles-valentine-riley-memorial-lecture href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7b611026-369a-4547-ba58-050bd46b7b25.yaml identifier: 7b611026-369a-4547-ba58-050bd46b7b25 uri: /reference/7b611026-369a-4547-ba58-050bd46b7b25 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'MRLC,' Place Published: 'Sioux Falls, SD' Publisher: Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium Title: 'National Land Cover Database 2011 (NLCD 2011) ' URL: https://www.mrlc.gov/nlcd2011.php Year: '[2017]' _record_number: 23631 _uuid: 7be68f4e-1a0a-4d76-8441-2c2cc6cf2988 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/b3a748a6-c045-4eb9-a7fe-039b09f5078a href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7be68f4e-1a0a-4d76-8441-2c2cc6cf2988.yaml identifier: 7be68f4e-1a0a-4d76-8441-2c2cc6cf2988 uri: /reference/7be68f4e-1a0a-4d76-8441-2c2cc6cf2988 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Hess, Jeremy J.; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George' DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1306796 ISSN: 1552-9924 Issue: 11 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Pages: 1209-1215 Title: 'Summertime acute heat illness in U.S. emergency departments from 2006 through 2010: Analysis of a nationally representative sample' Volume: 122 Year: 2014 _chapter: Ch2 _record_number: 16112 _uuid: 7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1306796 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66.yaml identifier: 7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66 uri: /reference/7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66 - attrs: Author: 'Jones, Bryan; O’Neill, Brian C.; McDaniel, Larry; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Tebaldi, Claudia' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2631 Date: 05/18/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 652-655 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Future population exposure to US heat extremes Volume: 5 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23541 _uuid: 7e3a9127-81cd-46bf-99b8-e3538e982fea reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2631 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7e3a9127-81cd-46bf-99b8-e3538e982fea.yaml identifier: 7e3a9127-81cd-46bf-99b8-e3538e982fea uri: /reference/7e3a9127-81cd-46bf-99b8-e3538e982fea - attrs: Author: 'Williamson, Tim; Hesseln, Hayley; Johnston, Mark' DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2010.04.003 Date: 2012/02/01/ ISSN: 1389-9341 Journal: Forest Policy and Economics Keywords: Climate change; Vulnerability; Economic efficiency; Equity; Adaptive capacity; Adaptive capacity deficit; Market failure; Irrational behaviour; Institutional failure; Economic systems Pages: 160-166 Title: Adaptive capacity deficits and adaptive capacity of economic systems in climate change vulnerability assessment Volume: 15 Year: 2012 _record_number: 23589 _uuid: 7e763017-31c5-4e46-97b3-3e9b872418bb reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.forpol.2010.04.003 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7e763017-31c5-4e46-97b3-3e9b872418bb.yaml identifier: 7e763017-31c5-4e46-97b3-3e9b872418bb uri: /reference/7e763017-31c5-4e46-97b3-3e9b872418bb - attrs: Abstract: Wildfire is a particular concern in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western United States where human development occurs close to flammable natural vegetation. Author: 'Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C.; Lamsal, Aashis; Sohl, Terry L.; Hawbaker, Todd J.' DOI: 10.1007/s10980-015-0222-4 Date: December 01 ISSN: 1572-9761 Issue: 10 Journal: Landscape Ecology Pages: 1943-1957 Title: 'Climate change and wildfire risk in an expanding wildland–urban interface: A case study from the Colorado Front Range Corridor' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 30 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21979 _uuid: 7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10980-015-0222-4 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc.yaml identifier: 7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc uri: /reference/7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Abstract: "Concomitant with the increase in Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperatures are warming on a global scale. Crop growth models are useful tools to predict the likely effects of these global changes on agricultural productivity and to develop strategies to maximize the benefits and minimize the detriments of such changes. However, few models have been tested at the higher temperatures expected in the future. Therefore, we conducted an experiment, termed the Hot Serial Cereal Experiment, on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)—the world's foremost food and feed crop—to obtain a dataset appropriate for testing the high-temperature performance of wheat growth models. Wheat was planted serially about every 6 wk for over 2 yr at Maricopa, AZ, USA, which experiences the whole range of temperatures at which plants grow on Earth. In addition, on six planting dates, infrared heaters in a temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) system were deployed over one-third of the plots to warm the plots by an additional 1.5°C during daytime and 3.0°C at night. Overall, a dataset covering 27 differently treated wheat crops was obtained covering an air temperature range from -2 to +42°C. Crop grain yields ranged from 0 to 800 g m-2. Crops planted in midwinter (normal planting time) yielded the most, as expected. Crops planted in fall suffered frost damage that was ameliorated by T-FACE warming, whereas spring-planted crops had lower yields that were exacerbated by T-FACE. Summer-planted crops failed. Regressions against season-long average air temperature revealed a lethal temperature of 32°C or higher." Author: 'Kimball, B.A.; White, J.W.; Wall, G.W.; Ottman, M.J.' Book Title: Improving Modeling Tools to Assess Climate Change Effects on Crop Response DOI: 10.2134/advagricsystmodel7.2014.0014 Editor: 'Hatfield, J. L.; Fleisher, D.' ISBN: 978-0-89118-352-5 Language: English Pages: 33-44 Place Published: 'Madison, WI' Publisher: 'American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.' Series Title: Advances in Agricultural Systems Modeling Series Volume: 7 Title: 'Wheat responses to a wide range of temperatures: The Hot Serial Cereal Experiment' Year: 2016 _record_number: 23624 _uuid: 7f759c70-2cca-46c6-ad9c-89a15cafea4a reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/174c7a2a-72d2-4110-a8be-784c1ef6197d href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7f759c70-2cca-46c6-ad9c-89a15cafea4a.yaml identifier: 7f759c70-2cca-46c6-ad9c-89a15cafea4a uri: /reference/7f759c70-2cca-46c6-ad9c-89a15cafea4a - attrs: Author: 'Rosser, Ezra' ISSN: 1524-3974 Issue: 1 Journal: Georgetown Journal on Poverty Law & Policy Pages: 33-93 Title: 'Rural housing and code enforcement: Navigating between values and housing types' URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=842584 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 _record_number: 23637 _uuid: 7fa47563-722f-4207-9194-3454f502647b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/rural-housing-code-enforcement-navigating-between-values-housing-types href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7fa47563-722f-4207-9194-3454f502647b.yaml identifier: 7fa47563-722f-4207-9194-3454f502647b uri: /reference/7fa47563-722f-4207-9194-3454f502647b - attrs: Author: 'Hewitt, Chris; Viviane B. S. Silva; Nicola Golding; Rong Gao; Caio A. S. Coelho; Robyn Duell; Jonathan Pollock; Kazutoshi Onogi; WMO Secretariat' Issue: 2 Periodical Title: WMO Bulletin Title: Managing risk with climate prediction products and services URL: https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/managing-risk-climate-prediction-products-and-services Volume: 64 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23619 _uuid: 7fbea82c-1ea9-47f8-b756-80b6e3b67f85 reftype: Electronic Article child_publication: /generic/d8aabe72-abb1-4348-b925-325f3ea6d79c href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7fbea82c-1ea9-47f8-b756-80b6e3b67f85.yaml identifier: 7fbea82c-1ea9-47f8-b756-80b6e3b67f85 uri: /reference/7fbea82c-1ea9-47f8-b756-80b6e3b67f85 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Guerrero, Bridget; Steve Amosson; Ted McCollum' Institution: Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service Pages: 17 Place Published: 'College Station, TX' Report Number: AG-001 Title: The impact of the Beef Industry in the Southern Ogallala region URL: http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/hppr/files/201309/Impact_of_the_Beef_Industry.pdf Year: 2013 _record_number: 25567 _uuid: 7fc86957-7e15-455c-ba12-ce6f55b5e0e1 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/impact-beef-industry-southern-ogallala-region href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7fc86957-7e15-455c-ba12-ce6f55b5e0e1.yaml identifier: 7fc86957-7e15-455c-ba12-ce6f55b5e0e1 uri: /reference/7fc86957-7e15-455c-ba12-ce6f55b5e0e1 - attrs: Author: 'Donovan, Victoria M.; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Twidwell, Dirac' DOI: 10.1002/2017GL072901 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 12 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: Great Plains biome; fire season; Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS); wildfire; pyrogeography; fire regime; 1630 Impacts of global change; 1632 Land cover change; 1817 Extreme events; 4335 Disaster management; 4316 Physical modeling Pages: 5986-5993 Title: Surging wildfire activity in a grassland biome Volume: 44 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23516 _uuid: 81917ef2-289f-4700-bc1a-254feb5156e5 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2017GL072901 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81917ef2-289f-4700-bc1a-254feb5156e5.yaml identifier: 81917ef2-289f-4700-bc1a-254feb5156e5 uri: /reference/81917ef2-289f-4700-bc1a-254feb5156e5 - attrs: Abstract: 'We assess the benefits of climate change mitigation for global maize and wheat production over the 21st century by comparing outcomes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 as simulated by two large initial condition ensembles from NCAR’s Community Earth System Model. We use models of the relation between climate variables, CO2 concentrations, and yields built on observations and then project this relation on the basis of simulated future temperature and precipitation and CO2 trajectories under the two scenarios, for short (2021–2040), medium (2041–2060) and long (2061–2080) time horizons. We focus on projected mean yield impacts, chances of significant slowdowns in yield, and exposure to damaging heat during critical periods of the growing seasons, the last of which is not explicitly considered in yield impacts by most models, including ours. We find that substantial benefits from mitigation would be achieved throughout the 21st century for maize, in terms of reducing (1) the size of average yield impacts, with mean losses for maize under RCP8.5 reduced under RCP4.5 by about 25 %, 40 % and 50 % as the time horizon lengthens over the 21st century; (2) the risk of major slowdowns over a 10 or 20 year period, with maize chances under RCP4.5 being reduced up to ~75 % by the end of the century compared to those estimated under RCP8.5; and (3) exposure to critical or “lethal” heat extremes, with the number of extremely hot days under RCP8.5 roughly triple current levels by end of century, compared to a doubling for RCP4.5. For wheat, we project small or occasionally negative effects of mitigation for projected yields, because of stronger CO2 fertilization effects than in maize, but substantial benefits of mitigation remain in terms of exposure to extremely high temperatures.' Author: 'Tebaldi, Claudia; Lobell, David' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1537-5 Date: October 28 ISSN: 1573-1480 Journal: Climatic Change Title: Estimated impacts of emission reductions on wheat and maize crops Type of Article: journal article Year: 2015 _record_number: 23583 _uuid: 82a91188-b255-4485-8e65-0417131e5c25 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-015-1537-5 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/82a91188-b255-4485-8e65-0417131e5c25.yaml identifier: 82a91188-b255-4485-8e65-0417131e5c25 uri: /reference/82a91188-b255-4485-8e65-0417131e5c25 - attrs: Abstract: 'The global livestock industry is charged with providing sufficient animal source foods to supply the global population while improving the environmental sustainability of animal production. Improved productivity within dairy and beef systems has demonstrably reduced resource use and greenhouse gas emissions per unit of food over the past century through the dilution of maintenance effect. Further environmental mitigation effects have been gained through the current use of technologies and practices that enhance milk yield or growth in ruminants; however, the social acceptability of continued intensification and use of productivity-enhancing technologies is subject to debate. As the environmental impact of food production continues to be a significant issue for all stakeholders within the field, further research is needed to ensure that comparisons among foods are made based on both environmental impact and nutritive value to truly assess the sustainability of ruminant products.' Author: 'Capper, Judith L.; Dale E. Bauman' DOI: 10.1146/annurev-animal-031412-103727 Issue: 1 Journal: Annual Review of Animal Biosciences Keywords: 'greenhouse gas emissions,dilution of maintenance,carbon footprint,animal source foods,dairy,beef' Pages: 469-489 Title: The role of productivity in improving the environmental sustainability of ruminant production systems Volume: 1 Year: 2013 _record_number: 26135 _uuid: 831b4c27-416e-4b98-94e6-3969a3b34031 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1146/annurev-animal-031412-103727 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/831b4c27-416e-4b98-94e6-3969a3b34031.yaml identifier: 831b4c27-416e-4b98-94e6-3969a3b34031 uri: /reference/831b4c27-416e-4b98-94e6-3969a3b34031 - attrs: Abstract: 'Maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) are the dominant grain crops across the Midwest and are grown on 75% of the arable land with small but economically important crops of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and oats (Avena sativa L.) but economically important crops. Historically, there have been variations in annual yields for maize and soybean related to the seasonal weather patterns. Key concerns are the impacts of future climate change on maize and soybean production and their vulnerability to future climate changes. To evaluate these, we analyzed the yield gaps as the difference between the attainable and actual yield at the county level and observed meteorological data to determine which seasonal meteorological variables were dominant in quantifying the actual/attainable yields. July maximum temperatures, August minimum temperatures, and July–August total precipitation were found to be the significant factors affecting the yield gap. These relationships were used to estimate the change in the yield gap through 2100 using both the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios for these variables for selected counties across the Midwest. Yield gaps increased with time for maize across the Midwest with the largest increases in the southern portion of the Corn Belt showing a large north-south gradient in the increase of the yield gap and minimal east-west gradient. Soybean was not as sensitive as maize because the projected temperatures do not exceed optimum temperature ranges for growth and reductions in production that are more sensitive to precipitation changes during the reproductive stages. Adaptation strategies for maize and soybean will require more innovation than simple agronomic management and require the linkage between geneticists, agronomists, and agricultural meteorologists to develop innovative strategies to preserve production in the Midwest.' Author: 'Hatfield, J. L.; Wright-Morton, Lois; Hall, Beth' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1997-x Date: June 12 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 1-2 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 263-275 Title: Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies Type of Article: journal article Volume: 146 Year: 2018 _record_number: 23530 _uuid: 83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-1997-x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a.yaml identifier: 83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a uri: /reference/83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a - attrs: Abstract: 'Maize water production functions measured in a 4-year field trial in the US central high plains were curvilinear with 2.0 kg m−3 water productivity at full irrigation that resulted from 12.5 Mg ha−1 grain yields with 630 mm of crop evapotranspiration, ETc. The curvilinear functions show decreasing yield but relatively constant water productivity up to 25% ETc reduction. Water productivity declined rapidly with ETc reductions greater than 25% and was zero at about 40% of full ETc because about 270 mm of ETc was required to produce the first unit of grain yield. These results corroborate those of previous studies that show reduction in irrigated area rather than deficit irrigation will usually provide higher net returns if water consumption (ETc) is limited. Water balance techniques adequately estimated ETc when precision irrigation was carefully scheduled and seasonal precipitation was low. Water productivity relationships based on ETc are more transferable than those based on irrigation water applied.' Author: 'Trout, Thomas J.; DeJonge, Kendall C.' DOI: 10.1007/s00271-017-0540-1 Date: May 01 ISSN: 1432-1319 Issue: 3 Journal: Irrigation Science Pages: 251-266 Title: Water productivity of maize in the US high plains Type of Article: journal article Volume: 35 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25534 _uuid: 859ab7f2-4df6-4c76-9fea-6bf0a3bdd7e4 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00271-017-0540-1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/859ab7f2-4df6-4c76-9fea-6bf0a3bdd7e4.yaml identifier: 859ab7f2-4df6-4c76-9fea-6bf0a3bdd7e4 uri: /reference/859ab7f2-4df6-4c76-9fea-6bf0a3bdd7e4 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'ERS,' Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) Title: 'Nonmetro Population Change, 2010-17 [chart]' URL: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=60121 Year: 2018 _record_number: 26132 _uuid: 861917c1-26d0-4d54-98eb-da50a55ba587 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/27745d8b-38d0-4bc9-a182-e8b03caff45e href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/861917c1-26d0-4d54-98eb-da50a55ba587.yaml identifier: 861917c1-26d0-4d54-98eb-da50a55ba587 uri: /reference/861917c1-26d0-4d54-98eb-da50a55ba587 - attrs: Abstract: 'The fragility of a single-source, geographically concentrated supply of natural rubber, a critical material of the modern economy, has brought guayule (Parthenium argentatum A. Gray) to the forefront as an alternative source of natural rubber. The improvement of guayule for commercial-scale production has been limited by the lack of genomic tools and well-characterized genetic resources required for genomics-assisted breeding. To address this issue, we developed nearly 50,000 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genetic markers and genotyped 69 accessions of guayule and its sister taxa mariola (Parthenium incanum Kunth), representing the entire available NALPGRU germplasm collection. We identified multiple interspecific hybrid accessions previously considered guayule, including six guayule-mariola hybrids and non-mariola interspecific hybrid accessions AZ-2 and AZ-3, two commonly used high-yielding cultivars. We dissected genetic diversity within the collection to identify a highly diverse subset of guayule accessions, and showed that wild guayule stands in Big Bend National Park, Texas, USA have the potential to provide hitherto untapped guayule genetic diversity. Together, these results provide the most thorough genetic characterization of guayule germplasm to date and lay the foundation for rapid genetic improvement of commercial guayule germplasm.' Author: 'Ilut, Daniel C.; Sanchez, Paul L.; Coffelt, Terry A.; Dyer, John M.; Jenks, Matthew A.; Gore, Michael A.' DOI: 10.1101/147256 Journal: bioRxiv Title: 'A century of guayule: Comprehensive genetic characterization of the guayule (Parthenium argentatum A. Gray) USDA germplasm collection' Year: 2017 _record_number: 25560 _uuid: 86940208-c0d6-4624-96a6-fc4762a40ce8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /generic/a44b1c35-1584-4d41-9d44-6e94f624a294 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/86940208-c0d6-4624-96a6-fc4762a40ce8.yaml identifier: 86940208-c0d6-4624-96a6-fc4762a40ce8 uri: /reference/86940208-c0d6-4624-96a6-fc4762a40ce8