---
- attrs:
    Author: 'Rojas-Downing, M. Melissa; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Harrigan, Timothy; Woznicki, Sean A.'
    DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2017.02.001
    Date: 2017/01/01/
    ISSN: 2212-0963
    Journal: Climate Risk Management
    Keywords: Livestock; Climate change; Heat stress; Greenhouse gas; Adaptation; Mitigation
    Pages: 145-163
    Title: 'Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation'
    Volume: 16
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 23574
    _uuid: 75a1f815-6b15-4597-abb5-859d8be2d4f1
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.crm.2017.02.001
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  identifier: 75a1f815-6b15-4597-abb5-859d8be2d4f1
  uri: /reference/75a1f815-6b15-4597-abb5-859d8be2d4f1
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 10
    Author: USGCRP
    DOI: 10.7930/J0J964J6
    Pages: 470
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA'
    Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program
    Secondary Author: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock'
    Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I'
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 21557
    _uuid: 75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1
    reftype: Report
  child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1.yaml
  identifier: 75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1
  uri: /reference/75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 9
    Abstract: 'Genetically engineered (GE) crops were first introduced commercially in the 1990s. After two decades of production, some groups and individuals remain critical of the technology based on their concerns about possible adverse effects on human health, the environment, and ethical considerations. At the same time, others are concerned that the technology is not reaching its potential to improve human health and the environment because of stringent regulations and reduced public funding to develop products offering more benefits to society. While the debate about these and other questions related to the genetic engineering techniques of the first 20 years goes on, emerging genetic-engineering technologies are adding new complexities to the conversation. Genetically Engineered Crops builds on previous related Academies reports published between 1987 and 2010 by undertaking a retrospective examination of the purported positive and adverse effects of GE crops and to anticipate what emerging genetic-engineering technologies hold for the future. This report indicates where there are uncertainties about the economic, agronomic, health, safety, or other impacts of GE crops and food, and makes recommendations to fill gaps in safety assessments, increase regulatory clarity, and improve innovations in and access to GE technology.'
    Author: 'Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources (BANR),'
    DOI: 10.17226/23395
    ISBN: 978-0-309-43738-7
    Keywords: Biology and Life Sciences; Agriculture
    Language: English
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC'
    Publisher: The National Academies Press
    Title: 'Genetically Engineered Crops: Experiences and Prospects'
    Year: 2016
    _record_number: 23598
    _uuid: 767d24b2-e102-4199-86a3-ba3c48fc93d5
    reftype: Book
  child_publication: /book/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-prospects
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/767d24b2-e102-4199-86a3-ba3c48fc93d5.yaml
  identifier: 767d24b2-e102-4199-86a3-ba3c48fc93d5
  uri: /reference/767d24b2-e102-4199-86a3-ba3c48fc93d5
- attrs:
    Author: 'Delgado, Jorge A.; Gantzer, Clark J.'
    DOI: 10.2489/jswc.70.6.142A
    Date: 'November 1, 2015'
    Issue: 6
    Journal: Journal of Soil and Water Conservation
    Pages: 142A-145A
    Title: The 4Rs for cover crops and other advances in cover crop management for environmental quality
    Volume: 70
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 25576
    _uuid: 76e90b6b-7c3e-465a-a0e1-b1322c415295
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.2489/jswc.70.6.142A
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/76e90b6b-7c3e-465a-a0e1-b1322c415295.yaml
  identifier: 76e90b6b-7c3e-465a-a0e1-b1322c415295
  uri: /reference/76e90b6b-7c3e-465a-a0e1-b1322c415295
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 0
    Abstract: 'Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance. Hot extremes have been shown to be induced by surface moisture deficits in some regions. In this study, we assess whether such a relationship holds at the global scale. We find that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions’ hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. The occurrence probability of an above-average number of hot days is over 70% after precipitation deficits in most parts of South America as well as the Iberian Peninsula and Eastern Australia, and over 60% in most of North America and Eastern Europe, while it is below 30–40% after wet conditions in these regions. Using quantile regression analyses, we show that the impact of precipitation deficits on the number of hot days is asymmetric, i.e. extreme high numbers of hot days are most strongly influenced. This relationship also applies to the 2011 extreme event in Texas. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed. '
    Author: "Mueller, B.\rS.I. Seneviratne"
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109
    ISSN: 0027-8424
    Issue: 31
    Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
    Keywords: 'hot day prediction; soil moisture–temperature coupling; standardized precipitation index; temperature extremes;  '
    Pages: 12398-12403
    Title: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale
    URL: http://www.pnas.org/content/109/31/12398.full.pdf+html
    Volume: 109
    Year: 2012
    _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2"]'
    _record_number: 2121
    _uuid: 77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1204330109
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b.yaml
  identifier: 77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b
  uri: /reference/77718bdb-b632-4762-b8a5-d4151785f65b
- attrs:
    Author: 'Brown, Jesslyn F.; Pervez, Md Shahriar'
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2014.01.004
    Date: 2014/05/01/
    ISSN: 0308-521X
    Journal: Agricultural Systems
    Keywords: Irrigated agriculture; Remote sensing; Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; High Plains Aquifer; Geospatial model
    Pages: 28-40
    Title: Merging remote sensing data and national agricultural statistics to model change in irrigated agriculture
    Volume: 127
    Year: 2014
    _record_number: 25453
    _uuid: 780e0eeb-2c8e-4d64-a1c2-d3a0c8eafdf0
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.agsy.2014.01.004
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/780e0eeb-2c8e-4d64-a1c2-d3a0c8eafdf0.yaml
  identifier: 780e0eeb-2c8e-4d64-a1c2-d3a0c8eafdf0
  uri: /reference/780e0eeb-2c8e-4d64-a1c2-d3a0c8eafdf0
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.'
    Author: 'Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Peñuelas, Josep; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold'
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701762114
    Date: 'August 29, 2017'
    Issue: 35
    Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
    Pages: 9326-9331
    Title: Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
    Volume: 114
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 23596
    _uuid: 79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1701762114
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1.yaml
  identifier: 79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1
  uri: /reference/79853924-784a-4bc1-8c47-551d3e6d9bc1
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'Workers employed in outdoor occupations such as farming are exposed to hot and humid environments that put them at risk for heat-related illness or death. This report describes one such death and summarizes heat-related fatalities among crop production workers in the United States during 1992--2006. During this 15-year period, 423 workers in agricultural and nonagricultural industries were reported to have died from exposure to environmental heat; 68 (16%) of these workers were engaged in crop production or support activities for crop production. The heat-related average annual death rate for these crop workers was 0.39 per 100,000 workers, compared with 0.02 for all U.S. civilian workers. Data aggregated into 5-year periods indicated that heat-related death rates among crop workers might be increasing; however, trend analysis did not indicate a statistically significant increase. Prevention of heat-related deaths among crop workers requires educating employers and workers on the hazards of working in hot environments, including recognition of heat-related illness symptoms, and implementing appropriate heat stress management measures.'
    Author: 'CDC,'
    Date: Jun 20
    ISSN: "1545-861X (Electronic)\r0149-2195 (Linking)"
    Issue: 24
    Journal: 'MMWR: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report'
    Keywords: Adult; Agriculture/*statistics & numerical data; Female; Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Occupational Diseases/*mortality; United States/epidemiology
    Pages: 649-653
    Title: 'Heat-related deaths among crop workers—United States, 1992–2006'
    URL: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18566563
    Volume: 57
    Year: 2008
    _chapter: Ch9
    _record_number: 16418
    _uuid: 79a8b35d-8f50-44c3-ba7d-a8c76f407620
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/pmid-18566563
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/79a8b35d-8f50-44c3-ba7d-a8c76f407620.yaml
  identifier: 79a8b35d-8f50-44c3-ba7d-a8c76f407620
  uri: /reference/79a8b35d-8f50-44c3-ba7d-a8c76f407620
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 10
    Author: 'Woodson, Randy'
    Institution: American Association for the Advancement of Science
    Notes: 'View lecture at '
    Pages: 19
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC'
    Title: The Role of U.S. Research Universities in Meeting the Global Food Security Challenge. 2016 AAAS Charles Valentine Riley Memorial Lecture
    URL: https://mcmprodaaas.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2016%20AAAS%20Riley%20Lecture%20Proceedings.pdf
    Year: 2016
    _record_number: 23648
    _uuid: 7b611026-369a-4547-ba58-050bd46b7b25
    reftype: Report
  child_publication: /report/role-us-research-universities-meeting-global-food-security-challenge-2016-aaas-charles-valentine-riley-memorial-lecture
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7b611026-369a-4547-ba58-050bd46b7b25.yaml
  identifier: 7b611026-369a-4547-ba58-050bd46b7b25
  uri: /reference/7b611026-369a-4547-ba58-050bd46b7b25
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 16
    Author: 'MRLC,'
    Place Published: 'Sioux Falls, SD'
    Publisher: Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium
    Title: 'National Land Cover Database 2011 (NLCD 2011) '
    URL: https://www.mrlc.gov/nlcd2011.php
    Year: '[2017]'
    _record_number: 23631
    _uuid: 7be68f4e-1a0a-4d76-8441-2c2cc6cf2988
    reftype: Web Page
  child_publication: /webpage/b3a748a6-c045-4eb9-a7fe-039b09f5078a
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7be68f4e-1a0a-4d76-8441-2c2cc6cf2988.yaml
  identifier: 7be68f4e-1a0a-4d76-8441-2c2cc6cf2988
  uri: /reference/7be68f4e-1a0a-4d76-8441-2c2cc6cf2988
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 0
    Author: 'Hess, Jeremy J.; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George'
    DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1306796
    ISSN: 1552-9924
    Issue: 11
    Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives
    Pages: 1209-1215
    Title: 'Summertime acute heat illness in U.S. emergency departments from 2006 through 2010: Analysis of a nationally representative sample'
    Volume: 122
    Year: 2014
    _chapter: Ch2
    _record_number: 16112
    _uuid: 7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1306796
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66.yaml
  identifier: 7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66
  uri: /reference/7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66
- attrs:
    Author: 'Jones, Bryan; O’Neill, Brian C.; McDaniel, Larry; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Tebaldi, Claudia'
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2631
    Date: 05/18/online
    Journal: Nature Climate Change
    Pages: 652-655
    Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
    Title: Future population exposure to US heat extremes
    Volume: 5
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 23541
    _uuid: 7e3a9127-81cd-46bf-99b8-e3538e982fea
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2631
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7e3a9127-81cd-46bf-99b8-e3538e982fea.yaml
  identifier: 7e3a9127-81cd-46bf-99b8-e3538e982fea
  uri: /reference/7e3a9127-81cd-46bf-99b8-e3538e982fea
- attrs:
    Author: 'Williamson, Tim; Hesseln, Hayley; Johnston, Mark'
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2010.04.003
    Date: 2012/02/01/
    ISSN: 1389-9341
    Journal: Forest Policy and Economics
    Keywords: Climate change; Vulnerability; Economic efficiency; Equity; Adaptive capacity; Adaptive capacity deficit; Market failure; Irrational behaviour; Institutional failure; Economic systems
    Pages: 160-166
    Title: Adaptive capacity deficits and adaptive capacity of economic systems in climate change vulnerability assessment
    Volume: 15
    Year: 2012
    _record_number: 23589
    _uuid: 7e763017-31c5-4e46-97b3-3e9b872418bb
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.forpol.2010.04.003
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7e763017-31c5-4e46-97b3-3e9b872418bb.yaml
  identifier: 7e763017-31c5-4e46-97b3-3e9b872418bb
  uri: /reference/7e763017-31c5-4e46-97b3-3e9b872418bb
- attrs:
    Abstract: Wildfire is a particular concern in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western United States where human development occurs close to flammable natural vegetation.
    Author: 'Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C.; Lamsal, Aashis; Sohl, Terry L.; Hawbaker, Todd J.'
    DOI: 10.1007/s10980-015-0222-4
    Date: December 01
    ISSN: 1572-9761
    Issue: 10
    Journal: Landscape Ecology
    Pages: 1943-1957
    Title: 'Climate change and wildfire risk in an expanding wildland–urban interface: A case study from the Colorado Front Range Corridor'
    Type of Article: journal article
    Volume: 30
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 21979
    _uuid: 7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10980-015-0222-4
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc.yaml
  identifier: 7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc
  uri: /reference/7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 7
    Abstract: "Concomitant with the increase in Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperatures are warming on a global scale. Crop growth models are useful tools to predict the likely effects of these global changes on agricultural productivity and to develop strategies to maximize the benefits and minimize the detriments of such changes. However, few models have been tested at the higher temperatures expected in the future. Therefore, we conducted an experiment, termed the Hot Serial Cereal Experiment, on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)—the world's foremost food and feed crop—to obtain a dataset appropriate for testing the high-temperature performance of wheat growth models. Wheat was planted serially about every 6 wk for over 2 yr at Maricopa, AZ, USA, which experiences the whole range of temperatures at which plants grow on Earth. In addition, on six planting dates, infrared heaters in a temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) system were deployed over one-third of the plots to warm the plots by an additional 1.5°C during daytime and 3.0°C at night. Overall, a dataset covering 27 differently treated wheat crops was obtained covering an air temperature range from -2 to +42°C. Crop grain yields ranged from 0 to 800 g m-2. Crops planted in midwinter (normal planting time) yielded the most, as expected. Crops planted in fall suffered frost damage that was ameliorated by T-FACE warming, whereas spring-planted crops had lower yields that were exacerbated by T-FACE. Summer-planted crops failed. Regressions against season-long average air temperature revealed a lethal temperature of 32°C or higher."
    Author: 'Kimball, B.A.; White, J.W.; Wall, G.W.; Ottman, M.J.'
    Book Title: Improving Modeling Tools to Assess Climate Change Effects on Crop Response
    DOI: 10.2134/advagricsystmodel7.2014.0014
    Editor: 'Hatfield, J. L.; Fleisher, D.'
    ISBN: 978-0-89118-352-5
    Language: English
    Pages: 33-44
    Place Published: 'Madison, WI'
    Publisher: 'American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.'
    Series Title: Advances in Agricultural Systems Modeling
    Series Volume: 7
    Title: 'Wheat responses to a wide range of temperatures: The Hot Serial Cereal Experiment'
    Year: 2016
    _record_number: 23624
    _uuid: 7f759c70-2cca-46c6-ad9c-89a15cafea4a
    reftype: Book Section
  child_publication: /book/174c7a2a-72d2-4110-a8be-784c1ef6197d
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7f759c70-2cca-46c6-ad9c-89a15cafea4a.yaml
  identifier: 7f759c70-2cca-46c6-ad9c-89a15cafea4a
  uri: /reference/7f759c70-2cca-46c6-ad9c-89a15cafea4a
- attrs:
    Author: 'Rosser, Ezra'
    ISSN: 1524-3974
    Issue: 1
    Journal: Georgetown Journal on Poverty Law & Policy
    Pages: 33-93
    Title: 'Rural housing and code enforcement: Navigating between values and housing types'
    URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=842584
    Volume: 13
    Year: 2006
    _record_number: 23637
    _uuid: 7fa47563-722f-4207-9194-3454f502647b
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/rural-housing-code-enforcement-navigating-between-values-housing-types
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7fa47563-722f-4207-9194-3454f502647b.yaml
  identifier: 7fa47563-722f-4207-9194-3454f502647b
  uri: /reference/7fa47563-722f-4207-9194-3454f502647b
- attrs:
    Author: 'Hewitt, Chris; Viviane B. S. Silva; Nicola Golding; Rong Gao; Caio A. S. Coelho; Robyn Duell; Jonathan Pollock; Kazutoshi Onogi; WMO Secretariat'
    Issue: 2
    Periodical Title: WMO Bulletin
    Title: Managing risk with climate prediction products and services
    URL: https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/managing-risk-climate-prediction-products-and-services
    Volume: 64
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 23619
    _uuid: 7fbea82c-1ea9-47f8-b756-80b6e3b67f85
    reftype: Electronic Article
  child_publication: /generic/d8aabe72-abb1-4348-b925-325f3ea6d79c
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  identifier: 7fbea82c-1ea9-47f8-b756-80b6e3b67f85
  uri: /reference/7fbea82c-1ea9-47f8-b756-80b6e3b67f85
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 10
    Author: 'Guerrero, Bridget; Steve Amosson; Ted McCollum'
    Institution: Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service
    Pages: 17
    Place Published: 'College Station, TX'
    Report Number: AG-001
    Title: The impact of the Beef Industry in the Southern Ogallala region
    URL: http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/hppr/files/201309/Impact_of_the_Beef_Industry.pdf
    Year: 2013
    _record_number: 25567
    _uuid: 7fc86957-7e15-455c-ba12-ce6f55b5e0e1
    reftype: Report
  child_publication: /report/impact-beef-industry-southern-ogallala-region
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7fc86957-7e15-455c-ba12-ce6f55b5e0e1.yaml
  identifier: 7fc86957-7e15-455c-ba12-ce6f55b5e0e1
  uri: /reference/7fc86957-7e15-455c-ba12-ce6f55b5e0e1
- attrs:
    Author: 'Donovan, Victoria M.; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Twidwell, Dirac'
    DOI: 10.1002/2017GL072901
    ISSN: 1944-8007
    Issue: 12
    Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
    Keywords: Great Plains biome; fire season; Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS); wildfire; pyrogeography; fire regime; 1630 Impacts of global change; 1632 Land cover change; 1817 Extreme events; 4335 Disaster management; 4316 Physical modeling
    Pages: 5986-5993
    Title: Surging wildfire activity in a grassland biome
    Volume: 44
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 23516
    _uuid: 81917ef2-289f-4700-bc1a-254feb5156e5
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1002/2017GL072901
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  identifier: 81917ef2-289f-4700-bc1a-254feb5156e5
  uri: /reference/81917ef2-289f-4700-bc1a-254feb5156e5
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'We assess the benefits of climate change mitigation for global maize and wheat production over the 21st century by comparing outcomes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 as simulated by two large initial condition ensembles from NCAR’s Community Earth System Model. We use models of the relation between climate variables, CO2 concentrations, and yields built on observations and then project this relation on the basis of simulated future temperature and precipitation and CO2 trajectories under the two scenarios, for short (2021–2040), medium (2041–2060) and long (2061–2080) time horizons. We focus on projected mean yield impacts, chances of significant slowdowns in yield, and exposure to damaging heat during critical periods of the growing seasons, the last of which is not explicitly considered in yield impacts by most models, including ours. We find that substantial benefits from mitigation would be achieved throughout the 21st century for maize, in terms of reducing (1) the size of average yield impacts, with mean losses for maize under RCP8.5 reduced under RCP4.5 by about 25 %, 40 % and 50 % as the time horizon lengthens over the 21st century; (2) the risk of major slowdowns over a 10 or 20 year period, with maize chances under RCP4.5 being reduced up to ~75 % by the end of the century compared to those estimated under RCP8.5; and (3) exposure to critical or “lethal” heat extremes, with the number of extremely hot days under RCP8.5 roughly triple current levels by end of century, compared to a doubling for RCP4.5. For wheat, we project small or occasionally negative effects of mitigation for projected yields, because of stronger CO2 fertilization effects than in maize, but substantial benefits of mitigation remain in terms of exposure to extremely high temperatures.'
    Author: 'Tebaldi, Claudia; Lobell, David'
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1537-5
    Date: October 28
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Journal: Climatic Change
    Title: Estimated impacts of emission reductions on wheat and maize crops
    Type of Article: journal article
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 23583
    _uuid: 82a91188-b255-4485-8e65-0417131e5c25
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-015-1537-5
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  uri: /reference/82a91188-b255-4485-8e65-0417131e5c25
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'The global livestock industry is charged with providing sufficient animal source foods to supply the global population while improving the environmental sustainability of animal production. Improved productivity within dairy and beef systems has demonstrably reduced resource use and greenhouse gas emissions per unit of food over the past century through the dilution of maintenance effect. Further environmental mitigation effects have been gained through the current use of technologies and practices that enhance milk yield or growth in ruminants; however, the social acceptability of continued intensification and use of productivity-enhancing technologies is subject to debate. As the environmental impact of food production continues to be a significant issue for all stakeholders within the field, further research is needed to ensure that comparisons among foods are made based on both environmental impact and nutritive value to truly assess the sustainability of ruminant products.'
    Author: 'Capper, Judith L.; Dale E. Bauman'
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-animal-031412-103727
    Issue: 1
    Journal: Annual Review of Animal Biosciences
    Keywords: 'greenhouse gas emissions,dilution of maintenance,carbon footprint,animal source foods,dairy,beef'
    Pages: 469-489
    Title: The role of productivity in improving the environmental sustainability of ruminant production systems
    Volume: 1
    Year: 2013
    _record_number: 26135
    _uuid: 831b4c27-416e-4b98-94e6-3969a3b34031
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1146/annurev-animal-031412-103727
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  uri: /reference/831b4c27-416e-4b98-94e6-3969a3b34031
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'Maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) are the dominant grain crops across the Midwest and are grown on 75% of the arable land with small but economically important crops of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and oats (Avena sativa L.) but economically important crops. Historically, there have been variations in annual yields for maize and soybean related to the seasonal weather patterns. Key concerns are the impacts of future climate change on maize and soybean production and their vulnerability to future climate changes. To evaluate these, we analyzed the yield gaps as the difference between the attainable and actual yield at the county level and observed meteorological data to determine which seasonal meteorological variables were dominant in quantifying the actual/attainable yields. July maximum temperatures, August minimum temperatures, and July–August total precipitation were found to be the significant factors affecting the yield gap. These relationships were used to estimate the change in the yield gap through 2100 using both the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios for these variables for selected counties across the Midwest. Yield gaps increased with time for maize across the Midwest with the largest increases in the southern portion of the Corn Belt showing a large north-south gradient in the increase of the yield gap and minimal east-west gradient. Soybean was not as sensitive as maize because the projected temperatures do not exceed optimum temperature ranges for growth and reductions in production that are more sensitive to precipitation changes during the reproductive stages. Adaptation strategies for maize and soybean will require more innovation than simple agronomic management and require the linkage between geneticists, agronomists, and agricultural meteorologists to develop innovative strategies to preserve production in the Midwest.'
    Author: 'Hatfield, J. L.; Wright-Morton, Lois; Hall, Beth'
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1997-x
    Date: June 12
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Issue: 1-2
    Journal: Climatic Change
    Pages: 263-275
    Title: Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies
    Type of Article: journal article
    Volume: 146
    Year: 2018
    _record_number: 23530
    _uuid: 83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-1997-x
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  identifier: 83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a
  uri: /reference/83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'Maize water production functions measured in a 4-year field trial in the US central high plains were curvilinear with 2.0 kg m−3 water productivity at full irrigation that resulted from 12.5 Mg ha−1 grain yields with 630 mm of crop evapotranspiration, ETc. The curvilinear functions show decreasing yield but relatively constant water productivity up to 25% ETc reduction. Water productivity declined rapidly with ETc reductions greater than 25% and was zero at about 40% of full ETc because about 270 mm of ETc was required to produce the first unit of grain yield. These results corroborate those of previous studies that show reduction in irrigated area rather than deficit irrigation will usually provide higher net returns if water consumption (ETc) is limited. Water balance techniques adequately estimated ETc when precision irrigation was carefully scheduled and seasonal precipitation was low. Water productivity relationships based on ETc are more transferable than those based on irrigation water applied.'
    Author: 'Trout, Thomas J.; DeJonge, Kendall C.'
    DOI: 10.1007/s00271-017-0540-1
    Date: May 01
    ISSN: 1432-1319
    Issue: 3
    Journal: Irrigation Science
    Pages: 251-266
    Title: Water productivity of maize in the US high plains
    Type of Article: journal article
    Volume: 35
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 25534
    _uuid: 859ab7f2-4df6-4c76-9fea-6bf0a3bdd7e4
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00271-017-0540-1
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  uri: /reference/859ab7f2-4df6-4c76-9fea-6bf0a3bdd7e4
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 16
    Author: 'ERS,'
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC'
    Publisher: USDA Economic Research Service (ERS)
    Title: 'Nonmetro Population Change, 2010-17 [chart]'
    URL: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=60121
    Year: 2018
    _record_number: 26132
    _uuid: 861917c1-26d0-4d54-98eb-da50a55ba587
    reftype: Web Page
  child_publication: /webpage/27745d8b-38d0-4bc9-a182-e8b03caff45e
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  uri: /reference/861917c1-26d0-4d54-98eb-da50a55ba587
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'The fragility of a single-source, geographically concentrated supply of natural rubber, a critical material of the modern economy, has brought guayule (Parthenium argentatum A. Gray) to the forefront as an alternative source of natural rubber. The improvement of guayule for commercial-scale production has been limited by the lack of genomic tools and well-characterized genetic resources required for genomics-assisted breeding. To address this issue, we developed nearly 50,000 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genetic markers and genotyped 69 accessions of guayule and its sister taxa mariola (Parthenium incanum Kunth), representing the entire available NALPGRU germplasm collection. We identified multiple interspecific hybrid accessions previously considered guayule, including six guayule-mariola hybrids and non-mariola interspecific hybrid accessions AZ-2 and AZ-3, two commonly used high-yielding cultivars. We dissected genetic diversity within the collection to identify a highly diverse subset of guayule accessions, and showed that wild guayule stands in Big Bend National Park, Texas, USA have the potential to provide hitherto untapped guayule genetic diversity. Together, these results provide the most thorough genetic characterization of guayule germplasm to date and lay the foundation for rapid genetic improvement of commercial guayule germplasm.'
    Author: 'Ilut, Daniel C.; Sanchez, Paul L.; Coffelt, Terry A.; Dyer, John M.; Jenks, Matthew A.; Gore, Michael A.'
    DOI: 10.1101/147256
    Journal: bioRxiv
    Title: 'A century of guayule: Comprehensive genetic characterization of the guayule (Parthenium argentatum A. Gray) USDA germplasm collection'
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 25560
    _uuid: 86940208-c0d6-4624-96a6-fc4762a40ce8
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /generic/a44b1c35-1584-4d41-9d44-6e94f624a294
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  uri: /reference/86940208-c0d6-4624-96a6-fc4762a40ce8