--- - attrs: Abstract: 'Aquifer overexploitation could significantly impact crop production in the United States because 60% of irrigation relies on groundwater. Groundwater depletion in the irrigated High Plains and California Central Valley accounts for ∼50% of groundwater depletion in the United States since 1900. A newly developed High Plains recharge map shows that high recharge in the northern High Plains results in sustainable pumpage, whereas lower recharge in the central and southern High Plains has resulted in focused depletion of 330 km3 of fossil groundwater, mostly recharged during the past 13,000 y. Depletion is highly localized with about a third of depletion occurring in 4% of the High Plains land area. Extrapolation of the current depletion rate suggests that 35% of the southern High Plains will be unable to support irrigation within the next 30 y. Reducing irrigation withdrawals could extend the lifespan of the aquifer but would not result in sustainable management of this fossil groundwater. The Central Valley is a more dynamic, engineered system, with north/south diversions of surface water since the 1950s contributing to ∼7× higher recharge. However, these diversions are regulated because of impacts on endangered species. A newly developed Central Valley Hydrologic Model shows that groundwater depletion since the 1960s, totaling 80 km3, occurs mostly in the south (Tulare Basin) and primarily during droughts. Increasing water storage through artificial recharge of excess surface water in aquifers by up to 3 km3 shows promise for coping with droughts and improving sustainability of groundwater resources in the Central Valley.' Author: 'Scanlon, Bridget R.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Reedy, Robert C.; Alley, William M.; McGuire, Virginia L.; McMahon, Peter B.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1200311109 Date: 'June 12, 2012' Issue: 24 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 9320-9325 Title: Groundwater depletion and sustainability of irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley Volume: 109 Year: 2012 _record_number: 21529 _uuid: bbb70780-07ef-4083-a3ff-8dc8d33b1e62 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1200311109 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bbb70780-07ef-4083-a3ff-8dc8d33b1e62.yaml identifier: bbb70780-07ef-4083-a3ff-8dc8d33b1e62 uri: /reference/bbb70780-07ef-4083-a3ff-8dc8d33b1e62 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Marshall, Elizabeth; Marcel Aillery; Scott Malcolm; Ryan Williams' Institution: USDA Economic Research Service Pages: 119 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Series Volume: Economic Research Report No. (ERR-201) Title: 'Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Adaptation in the U.S. Fieldcrop Sector' URL: https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=45496 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23629 _uuid: bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/climate-change-water-scarcity-adaptation-us-fieldcrop-sector href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0.yaml identifier: bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0 uri: /reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0 - attrs: Abstract: 'Shifting dietary patterns for environmental benefits has long been advocated. In relation to mitigating climate change, the debate has been more recent, with a growing interest from policy makers, academics, and society. Many researchers have highlighted the need for changes to food consumption in order to achieve the required greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions. So far, food consumption has not been anchored in climate change policy to the same extent as energy production and usage, nor has it been considered within the context of achieving GHG targets to a level where tangible outputs are available. Here, we address those issues by performing a relatively simple analysis that considers the extent to which one food exchange could contribute to achieving GHG reduction targets in the United States (US). We use the targeted reduction for 2020 as a reference and apply published Life Cycle Assessment data on GHG emissions to beans and beef consumed in the US. We calculate the difference in GHGs resulting from the replacement of beef with beans in terms of both calories and protein. Our results demonstrate that substituting one food for another, beans for beef, could achieve approximately 46 to 74% of the reductions needed to meet the 2020 GHG target for the US. In turn, this shift would free up 42% of US cropland (692,918 km2). While not currently recognized as a climate policy option, the “beans for beef” scenario offers significant climate change mitigation and other environmental benefits, illustrating the high potential of animal to plant food shifts.' Author: 'Harwatt, Helen; Sabaté, Joan; Eshel, Gidon; Soret, Sam; Ripple, William' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1969-1 Date: July 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 1 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 261-270 Title: Substituting beans for beef as a contribution toward US climate change targets Type of Article: journal article Volume: 143 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25564 _uuid: be314fe1-7cf8-4cab-8f02-295cd2c45a85 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-1969-1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/be314fe1-7cf8-4cab-8f02-295cd2c45a85.yaml identifier: be314fe1-7cf8-4cab-8f02-295cd2c45a85 uri: /reference/be314fe1-7cf8-4cab-8f02-295cd2c45a85 - attrs: Author: 'Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam; Baron, Christian; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Boogaard, Hendrik; Conijn, Sjaak; Corbeels, Marc; Deryng, Delphine; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Gayler, Sebastian; Grassini, Patricio; Hatfield, Jerry; Hoek, Steven; Izaurralde, Cesar; Jongschaap, Raymond; Kemanian, Armen R.; Kersebaum, K. Christian; Kim, Soo-Hyung; Kumar, Naresh S.; Makowski, David; Müller, Christoph; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Pravia, Maria Virginia; Sau, Federico; Shcherbak, Iurii; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Timlin, Dennis; Waha, Katharina' DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12520 ISSN: 1365-2486 Issue: 7 Journal: Global Change Biology Keywords: '[CO2]; AgMIP; climate; maize; model intercomparison; simulation; temperature; uncertainty' Pages: 2301-2320 Title: How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Volume: 20 Year: 2014 _record_number: 23499 _uuid: bf744ee3-227b-47be-b50f-ab4856355235 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/gcb.12520 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bf744ee3-227b-47be-b50f-ab4856355235.yaml identifier: bf744ee3-227b-47be-b50f-ab4856355235 uri: /reference/bf744ee3-227b-47be-b50f-ab4856355235 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Chakraborty, S.\rNewton, A.C." DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02411.x ISSN: 1365-3059 Issue: 1 Journal: Plant Pathology Pages: 2-14 Title: 'Climate change, plant diseases and food security: An overview' Volume: 60 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL"]' _record_number: 344 _uuid: c04c5716-c318-4a4c-9774-ae61ce97d305 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02411.x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c04c5716-c318-4a4c-9774-ae61ce97d305.yaml identifier: c04c5716-c318-4a4c-9774-ae61ce97d305 uri: /reference/c04c5716-c318-4a4c-9774-ae61ce97d305 - attrs: Author: 'Hammac, W. Ashley; Stott, Diane E.; Karlen, Douglas L.; Cambardella, Cynthia A.' DOI: 10.2136/sssaj2016.09.0282 Issue: 6 Journal: Soil Science Society of America Journal Language: English Pages: 1638-1652 Title: 'Crop, tillage, and landscape effects on near-surface soil quality indices in Indiana' Volume: 80 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23527 _uuid: c3b903a1-fbe2-40f2-88f6-6fa5b52608cb reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.2136/sssaj2016.09.0282 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c3b903a1-fbe2-40f2-88f6-6fa5b52608cb.yaml identifier: c3b903a1-fbe2-40f2-88f6-6fa5b52608cb uri: /reference/c3b903a1-fbe2-40f2-88f6-6fa5b52608cb - attrs: Abstract: 'Observed changes in intense precipitation (e.g., the frequency of very heavy precipitation or the upper 0.3% of daily precipitation events) have been analyzed for over half of the land area of the globe. These changes have been linked to changes in intense precipitation for three transient climate model simulations, all with greenhouse gas concentrations increasing during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and doubling in the later part of the twenty-first century. It was found that both the empirical evidence from the period of instrumental observations and model projections of a greenhouse-enriched atmosphere indicate an increasing probability of intense precipitation events for many extratropical regions including the United States. Although there can be ambiguity as to the impact of more frequent heavy precipitation events, the thresholds of the definitions of these events were raised here, such that they are likely to be disruptive. Unfortunately, reliable assertions of very heavy and extreme precipitation changes are possible only for regions with dense networks due to the small radius of correlation for many intense precipitation events.' Author: 'Groisman, Pavel Ya.; Richard W. Knight; David R. Easterling; Thomas R. Karl; Gabriele C. Hegerl; Vyacheslav N. Razuvaev' DOI: 10.1175/jcli3339.1 Issue: 9 Journal: Journal of Climate Pages: 1326-1350 Title: Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record Volume: 18 Year: 2005 _record_number: 23525 _uuid: c41f498d-369f-4150-bcb7-3b3fd140808d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/jcli3339.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c41f498d-369f-4150-bcb7-3b3fd140808d.yaml identifier: c41f498d-369f-4150-bcb7-3b3fd140808d uri: /reference/c41f498d-369f-4150-bcb7-3b3fd140808d - attrs: Author: 'Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John' DOI: 10.1002/2013EF000214 ISSN: 2328-4277 Issue: 4 Journal: Earth's Future Keywords: water requirements; climate change; water stress; water resources; United States; integrated assessment; 1655 Water cycles; 1807 Climate impacts; 1847 Modeling; 1880 Water management; 1857 Reservoirs (surface) Pages: 197-224 Publisher: 'Wiley Periodicals, Inc.' Title: Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change Volume: 2 Year: 2014 _record_number: 23504 _uuid: c4c53fb2-498c-43b7-9dd0-3ca34d80cd12 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2013EF000214 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c4c53fb2-498c-43b7-9dd0-3ca34d80cd12.yaml identifier: c4c53fb2-498c-43b7-9dd0-3ca34d80cd12 uri: /reference/c4c53fb2-498c-43b7-9dd0-3ca34d80cd12 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Kuttner, Hanns' Institution: Hudson Institute Pages: 29 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Series Volume: Briefing Paper Title: The Economic Impact of Rural Broadband URL: https://www.hudson.org/research/12428-the-economic-impact-of-rural-broadband Year: 2016 _record_number: 23625 _uuid: c5044534-5f99-4dfb-9b6a-dd89bc6b08d0 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/economic-impact-rural-broadband href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c5044534-5f99-4dfb-9b6a-dd89bc6b08d0.yaml identifier: c5044534-5f99-4dfb-9b6a-dd89bc6b08d0 uri: /reference/c5044534-5f99-4dfb-9b6a-dd89bc6b08d0 - attrs: Abstract: 'The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.' Author: 'Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1615922114 Date: 'March 21, 2017' Issue: 12 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: E2285-E2292 Title: Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity Volume: 114 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21170 _uuid: c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1615922114 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903.yaml identifier: c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903 uri: /reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Edition: Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-93b Editor: 'Vose, James; Clark, J.S.; Luce, Charlie; Patel-Weynand, Toral' Number of Pages: 289 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: 'U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington Office' Series Volume: Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-93b Title: 'Effects of Drought on Forests and Rangelands in the United States: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis' URL: http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/50261 Year: 2016 _record_number: 20154 _uuid: c6b4dffc-de18-4d19-b6a8-a2bc29448f09 reftype: Edited Book child_publication: /report/gtr_wo93b href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c6b4dffc-de18-4d19-b6a8-a2bc29448f09.yaml identifier: c6b4dffc-de18-4d19-b6a8-a2bc29448f09 uri: /reference/c6b4dffc-de18-4d19-b6a8-a2bc29448f09 - attrs: Abstract: 'Removal of corn (Zea mays L.) residues at high rates for biofuel and other off‐farm uses may negatively impact soil and the environment in the long term. Biomass removal from perennial warm‐season grasses (WSGs) grown in marginally productive lands could be an alternative to corn residue removal as biofuel feedstocks while controlling water and wind erosion, sequestering carbon (C), cycling water and nutrients, and enhancing other soil ecosystem services. We compared wind and water erosion potential, soil compaction, soil hydraulic properties, soil organic C (SOC), and soil fertility between biomass removal from WSGs and corn residue removal from rainfed no‐till continuous corn on a marginally productive site on a silty clay loam in eastern Nebraska after 2 and 3 years of management. The field‐scale treatments were as follows: (i) switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), (ii) big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii Vitman), and (iii) low‐diversity grass mixture [big bluestem, indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans (L.) Nash), and sideoats grama (Bouteloua curtipendula (Michx.) Torr.)], and (iv) 50% corn residue removal with three replications. Across years, corn residue removal increased wind‐erodible fraction from 41% to 86% and reduced wet aggregate stability from 1.70 to 1.15 mm compared with WSGs in the upper 7.5 cm soil depth. Corn residue removal also reduced water retention by 15% between −33 and −300 kPa potentials and plant‐available water by 25% in the upper 7.5 cm soil depth. However, corn residue removal did not affect final water infiltration, SOC concentration, soil fertility, and other properties. Overall, corn residue removal increases erosion potential and reduces water retention shortly after removal, suggesting that biomass removal from perennial WSGs is a desirable alternative to corn residue removal for biofuel production and maintenance of soil ecosystem services.' Author: 'Blanco‐Canqui, Humberto; Mitchell, Robert B.; Jin, Virginia L.; Schmer, Marty R.; Eskridge, Kent M.' DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.12436 Issue: 9 Journal: GCB Bioenergy Pages: 1510-1521 Title: 'Perennial warm‐season grasses for producing biofuel and enhancing soil properties: An alternative to corn residue removal' Volume: 9 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25584 _uuid: c6d7ea28-baeb-44cc-bef0-4e7d8bebe087 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/gcbb.12436 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c6d7ea28-baeb-44cc-bef0-4e7d8bebe087.yaml identifier: c6d7ea28-baeb-44cc-bef0-4e7d8bebe087 uri: /reference/c6d7ea28-baeb-44cc-bef0-4e7d8bebe087 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Gamble, Janet L.; Balbus, John; Berger, Martha; Bouye, Karen; Campbell, Vince; Chief, Karletta; Conlon, Kathryn; Crimmins, Allison; Flanagan, Barry; Gonzalez-Maddux, Cristina; Hallisey, Elaine; Hutchins, Sonja; Jantarasami, Lesley; Khoury, Samar; Kiefer, Max; Kolling, Jessica; Lynn, Kathy; Manangan, Arie; McDonald, Marian; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Sheffield, Perry; Thigpen Tart, Kimberly; Watson, Joanna; Whyte, Kyle Powys; Wolkin, Amy Funk' Book Title: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment' DOI: 10.7930/J0Q81B0T Pages: 247–286 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Ch. 9: Populations of concern' Year: 2016 _record_number: 19381 _uuid: c76d7935-9da3-4c4b-9186-86dc658bcc74 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/populations-of-concern href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c76d7935-9da3-4c4b-9186-86dc658bcc74.yaml identifier: c76d7935-9da3-4c4b-9186-86dc658bcc74 uri: /reference/c76d7935-9da3-4c4b-9186-86dc658bcc74 - attrs: Abstract: 'The Southwestern US is a five-state region that has supported animal agriculture since the late 16th Century when European settlers crossed the Rio Grande into present day west Texas and southern New Mexico with herds of cattle, sheep, goats and horses. For the past 400 years the rangeland livestock industry, in its many forms and manifestations, has developed management strategies and conservation practices that impart resilience to the climatic extremes, especially prolonged droughts, that are common and extensive across this region. Livestock production from rangelands in the southwest (SW) is adapted to low rainfall and high ambient temperatures, but will have to continue to adapt management strategies, such as reduced stocking rates, proper grazing management practices, employing animal genetics suited to arid environments with less herbaceous production, erosion control conservation practices, and alternative forage supplies, in an increasingly arid and variable climatic environment. Even though the aging demographics of western ranchers could be a deterrent to implementing various adaptations, there are examples of creative management coalitions to cope with climatic change that are emerging in the SW that can serve as instructive examples. More importantly, there are additional opportunities for incorporation of transformative practices and technologies that can sustain animal agriculture in the SW in a warmer environment. Animal agriculture in the SW is inherently resilient, and has the capacity to adapt and transform as needed to the climatic changes that are now occurring and will continue to occur across this region. However, producers and land managers will need to thoroughly understand the vulnerabilities and sensitivities that face them as well as the ecological characteristics of their specific landscapes in order to cope with the emerging climatic changes across the SW region.' Author: 'Havstad, K. M.; Brown, J. R.; Estell, R.; Elias, E.; Rango, A.; Steele, C.' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1834-7 Date: November 08 ISSN: 1573-1480 Journal: Climatic Change Title: Vulnerabilities of southwestern U.S. rangeland-based animal agriculture to climate change Type of Article: journal article Year: 2016 _record_number: 23531 _uuid: c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-016-1834-7 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e.yaml identifier: c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e uri: /reference/c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e - attrs: Abstract: 'While most models project large increases in agricultural drought frequency and severity in the 21st century, significant uncertainties exist in these projections. Here, we compare the model-simulated changes with observation-based estimates since 1900 and examine model projections from both the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index with the Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm) as a measure of agricultural drought. Results show that estimated long-term changes in global and hemispheric drought areas from 1900 to 2014 are consistent with the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-simulated response to historical greenhouse gases and other external forcing, with the short-term variations within the model spread of internal variability, despite that regional changes are still dominated by internal variability. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models project continued increases (by 50–200 % in a relative sense) in the 21st century in global agricultural drought frequency and area even under low-moderate emissions scenarios, resulting from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the sc_PDSI_pm. This flattening is especially pronounced over the Northern Hemisphere land, leading to increased drought frequency even over areas with increasing sc_PDSI_pm. Large differences exist in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-projected precipitation and drought changes over the Sahel and northern Australia due to uncertainties in simulating the African Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the subsidence zone over northern Australia, while the wetting trend over East Africa reflects a robust response of the Indian Ocean ITCZ seen in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. While warming-induced PET increases over all latitudes and precipitation decreases over subtropical land are responsible for mean sc_PDSI_pm decreases, the exact cause of its PDF flattening needs further investigation.' Author: 'Zhao, Tianbao; Dai, Aiguo' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1742-x Date: October 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 3 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 535-548 Title: 'Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: Model-simulated historical and future drought changes' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 144 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23595 _uuid: c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-016-1742-x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615.yaml identifier: c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615 uri: /reference/c8348455-9866-465b-8291-35119f3eb615 - attrs: Author: 'Hatfield, Jerry L.; Prueger, John H.' DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2015.08.001 Date: 2015/12/01/ ISSN: 2212-0947 Issue: Part A Journal: Weather and Climate Extremes Keywords: Temperature stress; Crop production; Pollination; Phenology; Plant growth Pages: 4-10 Title: 'Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development' Volume: 10 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23528 _uuid: c84eac2e-049f-4d86-8019-e72c98bd8fbf reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.wace.2015.08.001 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c84eac2e-049f-4d86-8019-e72c98bd8fbf.yaml identifier: c84eac2e-049f-4d86-8019-e72c98bd8fbf uri: /reference/c84eac2e-049f-4d86-8019-e72c98bd8fbf - attrs: Author: 'Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; Reynolds, M. P.; Alderman, P. D.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Koehler, A. K.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ruane, A. C.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P. J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2470 Date: 12/22/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 143-147 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production Volume: 5 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23497 _uuid: c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2470 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77.yaml identifier: c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77 uri: /reference/c918cb9e-c955-497f-b242-e68359b56b77 - attrs: Abstract: 'Estimating the impact of heat waves on human mortality is key when it comes to the design of effective climate change adaptation measures. As the usual approach—relying on detailed health data in form of hospital records—is not feasible for many countries, a different methodology is needed. This work presents such an approach. Based on singular spectrum analysis and using monthly mortality rates—partly ranging back to 1960—it derives excess mortality estimates for 27 European countries. Excess mortality is then regressed against a heat wave measure in order to assess the health impacts of extreme heat. The analysis demonstrates that many European countries are severely affected by heat waves: On average, 0.61%—and up to 1.14% in case of Portugal—of all deaths are caused by extreme heat events. This finding confirms the understanding that climate change is a major environmental risk to public health: In the 27 examined European countries, over 28,000 people die every year due to exposure to extreme heat.' Author: 'Merte, Steffen' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1937-9 Date: June 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 3 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 321-330 Title: Estimating heat wave-related mortality in Europe using singular spectrum analysis Type of Article: journal article Volume: 142 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23562 _uuid: c97a2716-9162-4e1d-ad39-ca1589a8d760 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-1937-9 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c97a2716-9162-4e1d-ad39-ca1589a8d760.yaml identifier: c97a2716-9162-4e1d-ad39-ca1589a8d760 uri: /reference/c97a2716-9162-4e1d-ad39-ca1589a8d760 - attrs: Abstract: 'Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage ( T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence ( r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a global basis, this would have little impact for the other crops. Therefore, regardless of the impact of other global change factors (such as increasing atmospheric CO 2 ), reproductive extreme heat exposure will pose risks for global crop production without adaptive measures such as changes in sowing dates, crop and variety switching, expansion of irrigation, and agricultural expansion into cooler areas.' Author: 'Gourdji, Sharon M. ; Adam M. Sibley; David B. Lobell' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024041 ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 2 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 024041 Title: 'Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: Historical trends and future projections' Volume: 8 Year: 2013 _record_number: 23613 _uuid: c9b7bbf7-7002-4a58-ad10-adb2f5d29b47 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024041 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c9b7bbf7-7002-4a58-ad10-adb2f5d29b47.yaml identifier: c9b7bbf7-7002-4a58-ad10-adb2f5d29b47 uri: /reference/c9b7bbf7-7002-4a58-ad10-adb2f5d29b47 - attrs: Author: 'Prager, Daniel; Christopher Burns; Nigel Key' Issue: August Periodical Title: Amber Waves Publisher: USDA Economic Research Service Title: 'Examining farm sector and farm household income ' URL: https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2017/august/examining-farm-sector-and-farm-household-income/ Year: 2017 _record_number: 23636 _uuid: ca3887b4-e477-4450-b44c-69b1161977a0 reftype: Electronic Article child_publication: /generic/fb22cc2a-e156-481b-9014-c91e0d6e848d href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ca3887b4-e477-4450-b44c-69b1161977a0.yaml identifier: ca3887b4-e477-4450-b44c-69b1161977a0 uri: /reference/ca3887b4-e477-4450-b44c-69b1161977a0 - attrs: Abstract: 'Using an ensemble of coupled physical‐biogeochemical models driven with regionalized data from global climate simulations we are able to quantify the influence of changing climate upon oxygen conditions in one of the numerous coastal seas (the Baltic Sea) that suffers worldwide from eutrophication and from expanding hypoxic zones. Applying various nutrient load scenarios we show that under the impact of warming climate hypoxic and anoxic areas will very likely increase or at best only slightly decrease (in case of optimistic nutrient load reductions) compared to present conditions, regardless of the used global model and climate scenario. The projected decreased oxygen concentrations are caused by (1) enlarged nutrient loads due to increased runoff, (2) reduced oxygen flux from the atmosphere to the ocean due to increased temperature, and (3) intensified internal nutrient cycling. In future climate a similar expansion of hypoxia as projected for the Baltic Sea can be expected also for other coastal oceans worldwide.' Author: 'Meier, H. E. M.; Andersson, H. C.; Eilola, K.; Gustafsson, B. G.; Kuznetsov, I.; Müller‐Karulis, B.; Neumann, T.; Savchuk, O. P.' DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049929 Issue: 24 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Title: 'Hypoxia in future climates: A model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea' Volume: 38 Year: 2011 _record_number: 25545 _uuid: ca67dba0-56b7-4ac4-ae5e-0e712a590ddd reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2011GL049929 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ca67dba0-56b7-4ac4-ae5e-0e712a590ddd.yaml identifier: ca67dba0-56b7-4ac4-ae5e-0e712a590ddd uri: /reference/ca67dba0-56b7-4ac4-ae5e-0e712a590ddd - attrs: .publisher: Nature Publishing Group .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Challinor, A. J.; Watson, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Howden, S. M.; Smith, D. R.; Chhetri, N.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2153 Date: 04//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 4 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 287-291 Title: A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation Volume: 4 Year: 2014 _record_number: 20341 _uuid: cd6bd680-f138-498d-a9b6-0f08b968d6e8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2153 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cd6bd680-f138-498d-a9b6-0f08b968d6e8.yaml identifier: cd6bd680-f138-498d-a9b6-0f08b968d6e8 uri: /reference/cd6bd680-f138-498d-a9b6-0f08b968d6e8 - attrs: Article Number: 3407325 Author: 'Houghton, Adele; Austin, Jessica; Beerman, Abby; Horton, Clayton' DOI: 10.1155/2017/3407325 Journal: Journal of Environmental and Public Health Pages: 16 Title: An approach to developing local climate change environmental public health indicators in a rural district Volume: 2017 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23534 _uuid: ced8505a-f36f-4c7b-8a0d-ec7f08482297 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1155/2017/3407325 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ced8505a-f36f-4c7b-8a0d-ec7f08482297.yaml identifier: ced8505a-f36f-4c7b-8a0d-ec7f08482297 uri: /reference/ced8505a-f36f-4c7b-8a0d-ec7f08482297 - attrs: Author: 'Derner, Justin D.; Augustine, David J.' DOI: 10.1016/j.rala.2016.05.002 Date: 2016/08/01/ ISSN: 0190-0528 Issue: 4 Journal: Rangelands Keywords: enterprise flexibility; grassbanking; herd structure; resiliency; risk management; risk reduction Pages: 211-215 Title: Adaptive management for drought on rangelands Volume: 38 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21586 _uuid: d0b6d345-8a94-4b3a-a191-0f09505948a1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.rala.2016.05.002 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d0b6d345-8a94-4b3a-a191-0f09505948a1.yaml identifier: d0b6d345-8a94-4b3a-a191-0f09505948a1 uri: /reference/d0b6d345-8a94-4b3a-a191-0f09505948a1