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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-13-1";
   gcis:findingNumber "13.1"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "<p>More than 100 million people in the United States live in communities where air pollution exceeds health-based air quality standards. Unless counteracting efforts to improve air quality are implemented, climate change will worsen existing air pollution levels (<em>likely, high confidence</em>). This worsened air pollution would increase the incidence of adverse respiratory and cardiovascular health effects, including premature death (<em>high confidence</em>). Increased air pollution would also have other environmental consequences, including reduced visibility and damage to agricultural crops and forests (<em>likely, very high confidence</em>).  </p>"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "<p>Due to limited resources and requirements imposed by the Federal Advisory Committee Act, the decision was made that this chapter would be developed using an all-federal author team. The author team was selected based on expertise in climate change impacts on air quality; several of the chapter authors were authors of the “Air Quality Impacts” chapter of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP) Climate and Health Assessment.{{< tbib '3' '5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690' >}} This chapter was developed through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation by the report authors via weekly teleconferences and email exchanges. The authors considered inputs and comments submitted by the public; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and federal agencies.</p><hr/>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p>It is well established that air pollutants pose a serious risk to human health and the environment.{{< tbib '5' 'f7ffc8dd-70ec-4779-817a-b2985c0779e7' >}}{{<tbib '6' 'e00fb4e2-6406-40be-90f8-071dfc43cca3' >}} Short- and long-term exposure to pollutants such as ozone or PM<sub>2.5</sub> results in premature deaths,{{< tbib '8' '2085e6ae-5608-4e91-86c2-36df7baa8fec' >}} hospital and emergency room visits, aggravated asthma,{{< tbib '3' '5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690' >}}{{<tbib '9' '328b7923-3257-4326-804c-c2ee79a023d5' >}} and shortness of breath.{{< tbib '10' 'd3f82686-12ef-4e1e-9a15-cf89236a53a8' >}} Numerous air quality modeling studies have assessed the potential impacts of a changing climate on future ozone and particulate matter levels in the United States.{{< tbib '4' 'b4038a28-b14b-4ae8-b783-0de19e3cffdd' >}}{{<tbib '37' '5c599d79-a94a-40bc-862e-d599de07b599' >}}{{<tbib '38' 'afbd60ab-ba9f-4547-88e3-968bc3a4b949' >}}{{<tbib '70' '2bd16a59-d347-4fb4-9ff7-701e0c32ab60' >}}{{<tbib '86' 'a19a16db-8155-45a3-83f0-357064ec254a' >}} These studies examine simulations conducted with a broad ensemble of global and regional climate models under various potential climate scenarios. For ozone, these model assessments consistently project higher future levels commensurate with warmer climates, independent of varying individual model assumptions. This model consensus strengthens confidence in the projected signal. Additionally, well-established data analyses have shown a strong positive correlation between temperature and ozone at many locations in the United States.{{< tbib '87' '1994b6dc-9753-44a1-a1b2-1d1566c39287' >}}{{<tbib '89' '552e0a6a-98c6-4d6c-b7ff-fdcc572fa914' >}} Although competing meteorological effects determine local ozone levels, temperature is often the single largest meteorological driver. This present-day signal also bolsters confidence in the conclusion that warmer climates will be associated with higher ozone. There are also modeling and observational studies that demonstrate that ozone precursor emissions from natural{{< tbib '75' '3ccc0f92-9b21-4012-b368-d66568254a3a' >}} and human sources{{< tbib '77' 'ccd5ec24-c9a9-4e7d-9ae4-b51314ef0e03' >}} increase with temperature. In aggregate, the consistency in the ozone response to past and projected future climate across a large volume of analyses provides high confidence that ozone air pollution will likely be worsened in a warmer climate. For particulate matter, the model assessments exhibit greater variability in terms of future concentration differences projected to result from meteorological changes in a warmer climate.{{< tbib '3' '5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690' >}}{{<tbib '4' 'b4038a28-b14b-4ae8-b783-0de19e3cffdd' >}}{{<tbib '43' '0dcee9aa-9230-420c-a1a9-c02510c6df0f' >}}{{<tbib '70' '2bd16a59-d347-4fb4-9ff7-701e0c32ab60' >}} The reduced certainty in the response of PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations (particulate matter, or PM, less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter) to changing meteorological drivers is the result of the multiple pathways toward PM<sub>2.5</sub> formation and the variable influence of meteorological factors on each of those different pathways.{{< tbib '5' 'f7ffc8dd-70ec-4779-817a-b2985c0779e7' >}} Most of these model assessments have not considered the impact of changes in PM from changes in wildfires or windblown dust because they are difficult to quantify. Studies that have included projections of future wildfire incidences have concluded that climate-driven increases in wildfire activity are <em>likely,</em> with wildfires becoming an increasingly important source of PM<sub>2.5</sub>{{< tbib '63' 'fd647847-4da5-4fc8-9488-4b79549d7cf6' >}}{{<tbib '108' '60bb2b8e-5a2d-46f4-8474-84a1256ca392' >}}{{<tbib '109' 'c644739f-2708-4c5b-ba4d-a9dd0a50d3dc' >}} and degrading visibility.{{< tbib '54' 'a92b6912-a92c-482b-a8e7-f43d324947e3' >}} Finally, there is ample observational evidence that decreasing ozone and particulate precursor emissions would reduce pollutant levels.{{< tbib '28' '20bac876-62ce-4d20-9041-a7461e1b93fc' >}}{{<tbib '29' '1bc5d64e-b530-4b8b-a6b5-19f40499ee94' >}}</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<p>There is <em>high confidence</em> that rising temperatures will <em>likely</em> increase future ozone levels in many parts of the United States in response to climate change. There is greater uncertainty that a warmer climate will increase future PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels over the United States. Ultimately, the actual ozone and PM<sub>2.5</sub> changes between the present and the future at any given location will depend on the local climate impacts on meteorology and pollutant emission controls in that region. There is <em>very high confidence</em> that reducing ozone precursor emissions and PM<sub>2.5</sub> precursors and/or direct emissions will <em>likely</em> lead to improved air quality in the future, thus mitigating adverse climate effects.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "<p>Model simulations of future air quality indicate that climate warming generally increases ground-level ozone across the United States (see Figure 13.2), but results differ spatially and in the magnitude of the projected signal.{{< tbib '90' '8168dfd7-c53f-4e89-ba22-991d6a2179a6' >}}{{<tbib '138' '342dcbb2-a2cf-49d9-9f2f-46562422c410' >}}{{<tbib '139' 'fc7459fe-8533-4a00-8ba8-2ce2783c3103' >}}{{<tbib '140' '4f1b9afd-efc6-4f29-82ca-032786eb9a9c' >}}{{<tbib '141' '1d7245db-8407-4ca3-9db8-175ce77f2b10' >}} Because meteorological influences on ozone formation can vary to some degree by location (for example, wind direction may be paramount in locations affected primarily by ozone transport), a few areas may experience lower ozone levels.{{< tbib '4' 'b4038a28-b14b-4ae8-b783-0de19e3cffdd' >}} Future ozone levels over the United States will depend not only on the severity of the climate change impacts on meteorology favorable for ozone accumulation but also on any measures to reduce ozone precursor emissions, introducing further uncertainty. Even larger uncertainties exist with respect to the climate impacts on PM<sub>2.5</sub>, where the future concentrations will depend on changes in a suite of meteorological factors, which in some cases (for example, precipitation) are more difficult to quantify.</p>"^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.07.040>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0dcee9aa-9230-420c-a1a9-c02510c6df0f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.04.061>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1994b6dc-9753-44a1-a1b2-1d1566c39287>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/webpage/392184ef-f33e-4b5b-968e-af93e1715cb7>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1bc5d64e-b530-4b8b-a6b5-19f40499ee94>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/acp-9-1125-2009>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1d7245db-8407-4ca3-9db8-175ce77f2b10>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/health-risk-exposure-assessment-ozone-final-report>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2085e6ae-5608-4e91-86c2-36df7baa8fec>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1021/es504514z>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/20bac876-62ce-4d20-9041-a7461e1b93fc>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00181.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2bd16a59-d347-4fb4-9ff7-701e0c32ab60>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0138146>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/328b7923-3257-4326-804c-c2ee79a023d5>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2004JD004690>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/342dcbb2-a2cf-49d9-9f2f-46562422c410>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2007JD009092>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3ccc0f92-9b21-4012-b368-d66568254a3a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.crte.2007.08.005>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4f1b9afd-efc6-4f29-82ca-032786eb9a9c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2009gl037308>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/552e0a6a-98c6-4d6c-b7ff-fdcc572fa914>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1289/ehp.11463>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5c599d79-a94a-40bc-862e-d599de07b599>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/air-quality-impacts>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124018>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/60bb2b8e-5a2d-46f4-8474-84a1256ca392>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/acp-17-2943-2017>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8168dfd7-c53f-4e89-ba22-991d6a2179a6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/2009BAMS2568.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a19a16db-8155-45a3-83f0-357064ec254a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a92b6912-a92c-482b-a8e7-f43d324947e3>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.051>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/afbd60ab-ba9f-4547-88e3-968bc3a4b949>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1080/10962247.2015.1040526>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b4038a28-b14b-4ae8-b783-0de19e3cffdd>.



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/scenario/rcp_4_5>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-1>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/scenario/rcp_8_5>.