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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-13-2";
   gcis:findingNumber "13.2"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "<p>Wildfire smoke degrades air quality, increasing the health risks to tens of millions of people in the United States. More frequent and severe wildfires due to climate change would further diminish air quality, increase incidences of respiratory illness from exposure to wildfire smoke, impair visibility, and disrupt outdoor recreational activities <em>(very likely, high confidence)</em>.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "<p>Due to limited resources and requirements imposed by the Federal Advisory Committee Act, the decision was made that this chapter would be developed using an all-federal author team. The author team was selected based on expertise in climate change impacts on air quality; several of the chapter authors were authors of the “Air Quality Impacts” chapter of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP) Climate and Health Assessment.{{< tbib '3' '5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690' >}} This chapter was developed through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation by the report authors via weekly teleconferences and email exchanges. The authors considered inputs and comments submitted by the public; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and federal agencies.</p><hr/>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p>Wildfire smoke worsens air quality through its direct emissions to the atmosphere as well as through chemical reactions of those pollutants with sunlight and other pollutants. Exposure to wildfire smoke increases the risk of exacerbating respiratory illnesses in tens of millions of people in vulnerable population groups across the United States.{{< tbib '62' '9a222c75-5ff9-408e-9694-b7bd90a2a0ca' >}} Several studies have indicated that climate change has already led to longer wildfire seasons,{{< tbib '79' 'e1e1f3a0-9fea-4ad2-a3af-575716f9849e' >}} increased frequency of large wildfires,{{< tbib '82' 'd96a729a-a5db-4318-8f52-78f6031b42fd' >}}{{<tbib '83' 'bcc07e69-1ffb-4630-b203-1d4e1bbfa04e' >}} and increased area of forest burned.{{< tbib '99' 'de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5' >}} Additional studies project that climate change will cause wildfire frequency and burned area in North America to increase over the 21st century.{{< tbib '81' 'a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89' >}}{{<tbib '100' 'b95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084' >}}{{<tbib '101' 'f4daa36c-4b3f-449a-8d03-94cdd39fe1eb' >}}{{<tbib '102' 'c0fc95a5-870b-4c25-a63f-81716351c81f' >}}{{<tbib '103' '52b8c0e6-00b2-42aa-9df5-6d46fe600b7d' >}}{{<tbib '104' '139442ad-69f8-452f-9c46-0dc9438ec5fb' >}}{{<tbib '105' '39a8b555-de10-4244-b292-52d0b202531d' >}}{{<tbib '106' 'f680e49e-d58f-45c2-8ad6-a7bc97c12ca0' >}} Increased emissions from wildfires may offset the benefits of large reductions in emissions of PM<sub>2.5</sub> precursors.{{< tbib '54' 'a92b6912-a92c-482b-a8e7-f43d324947e3' >}}{{<tbib '109' 'c644739f-2708-4c5b-ba4d-a9dd0a50d3dc' >}} There is a broad and consistent evidence base leading to a high confidence conclusion that the increasing impacts of wildfire are very likely. Increases in wildfire smoke events due to climate change would reduce opportunities for outdoor recreational activities <em>(<a href='/chapter/22#key-message-3'>Ch. 22: N. Great Plains, KM 3</a> and <a href='/chapter/24#key-message-4'>Ch. 24: Northwest, KM 4</a>)</em>.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<p>There is <em>high confidence</em> that rising temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt will <em>very likely</em> result in lengthening the wildfire season in portions of the United States, leading to an increased frequency of wildfires and associated smoke. There is <em>very high confidence</em> that increasing exposure to wildfire smoke, which contains particulate matter, will increase adverse health impacts. It is <em>likely</em> that smoke from wildfires will reduce visibility and disrupt outdoor recreational activities.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "<p>Humans affect fire activity in many ways, including increasing ignitions as well as conducting controlled burns and fire suppression activities.{{< tbib '110' '415d7f4d-4e24-4cff-a9aa-c76f30dbeb42' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '111' 'ea8d831c-6b6b-4f8c-9b60-f17bab43660e' >}} The frequency and severity of wildfire occurrence in the future will be largely determined by forest management practices and climate adaptation measures, which are very uncertain. Housing development practices and changes in the urban–forest interface are also important factors for future wildfire occurrence and for the extent to which associated smoke emissions impair air quality and result in adverse health effects. The composition of the pollutants contained in wildfire smoke and their chemical reactions are highly dependent on a variety of environmental factors, so projecting and quantifying the effects of wildfire smoke on specific pollutants can be particularly challenging. Exposure to wildfire smoke may also increase the risk of cardiovascular illness, but additional data are required to quantify this risk.{{< tbib '62' '9a222c75-5ff9-408e-9694-b7bd90a2a0ca' >}} More accurate forecasting of wildfire smoke events may mitigate health impacts and reduced opportunities for outdoor recreational activities through changes in timing of those activities.</p>"^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/139442ad-69f8-452f-9c46-0dc9438ec5fb>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/39a8b555-de10-4244-b292-52d0b202531d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1021/es902455e>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/415d7f4d-4e24-4cff-a9aa-c76f30dbeb42>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.12.003>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/52b8c0e6-00b2-42aa-9df5-6d46fe600b7d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/air-quality-impacts>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.086>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9a222c75-5ff9-408e-9694-b7bd90a2a0ca>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/drought-floods-hydrology>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a92b6912-a92c-482b-a8e7-f43d324947e3>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1110199108>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2014GL059576>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bcc07e69-1ffb-4630-b203-1d4e1bbfa04e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1021/es4050133>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c0fc95a5-870b-4c25-a63f-81716351c81f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2008JD010966>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c644739f-2708-4c5b-ba4d-a9dd0a50d3dc>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124009>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d96a729a-a5db-4318-8f52-78f6031b42fd>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1607171113>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1128834>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e1e1f3a0-9fea-4ad2-a3af-575716f9849e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1617394114>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea8d831c-6b6b-4f8c-9b60-f17bab43660e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1080/10643389.2011.604248>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f4daa36c-4b3f-449a-8d03-94cdd39fe1eb>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s40641-016-0031-0>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f680e49e-d58f-45c2-8ad6-a7bc97c12ca0>.