uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Issue,attrs.Journal,attrs.Pages,attrs.Title,attrs.Volume,attrs.Year,attrs.\.reference_type,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/139442ad-69f8-452f-9c46-0dc9438ec5fb,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/139442ad-69f8-452f-9c46-0dc9438ec5fb,139442ad-69f8-452f-9c46-0dc9438ec5fb,"Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF ≥ 50,000 ac ~ 20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p ≤ 0.05) increases in VLWF probability for climate of the mid-21st century (2031–2060) relative to contemporary climate are found, for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The largest differences are in the Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest. Changes in seasonality and frequency of VLWFs d7epend on changes in the future climate space. For example, flammability-limited areas such as the Pacific Northwest show that (with high model agreement) the frequency of weeks with VLWFs in a given year is 2–2.7 more likely. However, frequency of weeks with at least one VLWF in fuel-limited systems like the Western Great Basin is 1.3 times more likely (with low model agreement). Thus, areas where fire is directly associated with hot and dry climate, as opposed to experiencing lagged effects from previous years, experience more change in the likelihood of VLWF in future projections. The results provide a quantitative foundation for management to mitigate the effects of VLWFs.","Stavros, E. Natasha; Abatzoglou, John T.; McKenzie, Donald; Larkin, Narasimhan K.",10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6,1573-1480,3,"Climatic Change",455-468,"Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States",126,2014,0,20972,139442ad-69f8-452f-9c46-0dc9438ec5fb,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6
/reference/39a8b555-de10-4244-b292-52d0b202531d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/39a8b555-de10-4244-b292-52d0b202531d,39a8b555-de10-4244-b292-52d0b202531d,,"Yue, X.; Mickley, L. J.; Logan, J. A.; Hudman, R. C.; Martin, M. V.; Yantosca, R. M.",10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015,1680-7324,17,"Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics",10033-10055,"Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: Consequences for ozone air quality	",15,2015,0,20753,39a8b555-de10-4244-b292-52d0b202531d,"Journal Article",/article/10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015
/reference/415d7f4d-4e24-4cff-a9aa-c76f30dbeb42,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/415d7f4d-4e24-4cff-a9aa-c76f30dbeb42,415d7f4d-4e24-4cff-a9aa-c76f30dbeb42,,"Wiedinmyer, Christine; Hurteau, Matthew D.",10.1021/es902455e,0013-936X,6,"Environmental Science & Technology",1926-1932,"Prescribed fire as a means of reducing forest carbon emissions in the western United States",44,2010,,24224,415d7f4d-4e24-4cff-a9aa-c76f30dbeb42,"Journal Article",/article/10.1021/es902455e
/reference/52b8c0e6-00b2-42aa-9df5-6d46fe600b7d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/52b8c0e6-00b2-42aa-9df5-6d46fe600b7d,52b8c0e6-00b2-42aa-9df5-6d46fe600b7d,,"Mitchell, Robert J.; Liu, Yongqiang; O’Brien, Joseph J.; Elliott, Katherine J.; Starr, Gregory; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Hiers, J. Kevin",10.1016/j.foreco.2013.12.003,0378-1127,,"Forest Ecology and Management",316-326,"Future climate and fire interactions in the southeastern region of the United States",327,2014,,24249,52b8c0e6-00b2-42aa-9df5-6d46fe600b7d,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.12.003
/reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,,"Fann, Neal; Brennan, Terry; Dolwick, Patrick; Gamble, Janet L.; Ilacqua, Vito; Kolb, Laura; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Ziska, Lewis",10.7930/J0GQ6VP6,,,,"69–98","Ch. 3: Air quality impacts",,2016,7,19375,5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,"Book Section",/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/air-quality-impacts
/reference/9a222c75-5ff9-408e-9694-b7bd90a2a0ca,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9a222c75-5ff9-408e-9694-b7bd90a2a0ca,9a222c75-5ff9-408e-9694-b7bd90a2a0ca,,"Cascio, Wayne E.",10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.086,0048-9697,,"Science of The Total Environment",586-595,"Wildland fire smoke and human health",624,2018,,25898,9a222c75-5ff9-408e-9694-b7bd90a2a0ca,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.086
/reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,,"Wehner, M.F.; J.R. Arnold; T. Knutson; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande",10.7930/J0CJ8BNN,,,,231-256,"Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires",,2017,7,21566,a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/drought-floods-hydrology
/reference/a92b6912-a92c-482b-a8e7-f43d324947e3,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a92b6912-a92c-482b-a8e7-f43d324947e3,a92b6912-a92c-482b-a8e7-f43d324947e3,,"Val Martin, M.; Heald, C. L.; Lamarque, J. F.; Tilmes, S.; Emmons, L. K.; Schichtel, B. A.",10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015,1680-7324,5,"Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics",2805-2823,"How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: A focus on effects at National Parks",15,2015,0,18929,a92b6912-a92c-482b-a8e7-f43d324947e3,"Journal Article",/article/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015
/reference/b95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084,b95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084,"Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972–1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated and then used with downscaled (∼12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to <30 y from the historical 100–300 y for most of the GYE. Years without large fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire–climate–vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and may indicate similar changes for other subalpine forests.","Westerling, Anthony L.
Turner, Monica G.
Smithwick, Erica A. H.
Romme, William H.
Ryan, Michael G.",10.1073/pnas.1110199108,1091-6490,32,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",13165-13170,"Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century",108,2011,0,3398,b95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1110199108
/reference/bcc07e69-1ffb-4630-b203-1d4e1bbfa04e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bcc07e69-1ffb-4630-b203-1d4e1bbfa04e,bcc07e69-1ffb-4630-b203-1d4e1bbfa04e,,"Dennison, Philip E.; Brewer, Simon C.; Arnold, James D.; Moritz, Max A.",10.1002/2014GL059576,1944-8007,8,"Geophysical Research Letters",2928-2933,"Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011",41,2014,0,20912,bcc07e69-1ffb-4630-b203-1d4e1bbfa04e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2014GL059576
/reference/c0fc95a5-870b-4c25-a63f-81716351c81f,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c0fc95a5-870b-4c25-a63f-81716351c81f,c0fc95a5-870b-4c25-a63f-81716351c81f,,"Hurteau, Matthew D.; Westerling, Anthony L.; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Bryant, Benjamin P.",10.1021/es4050133,0013-936X,4,"Environmental Science & Technology",2298-2304,"Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100",48,2014,,24260,c0fc95a5-870b-4c25-a63f-81716351c81f,"Journal Article",/article/10.1021/es4050133
/reference/c644739f-2708-4c5b-ba4d-a9dd0a50d3dc,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c644739f-2708-4c5b-ba4d-a9dd0a50d3dc,c644739f-2708-4c5b-ba4d-a9dd0a50d3dc,,"Spracklen, D.V.
Mickley, L.J.
Logan, J.A.
Hudman, R.C.
Yevich, R.
Flannigan, M.D.
Westerling, A.L.",10.1029/2008JD010966,,D20,"Journal of Geophysical Research",D20301,"Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States",114,2009,0,2914,c644739f-2708-4c5b-ba4d-a9dd0a50d3dc,"Journal Article",/article/10.1029/2008JD010966
/reference/d96a729a-a5db-4318-8f52-78f6031b42fd,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d96a729a-a5db-4318-8f52-78f6031b42fd,d96a729a-a5db-4318-8f52-78f6031b42fd,"Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability including the interannual variability of VLF occurrences within most ecoregions. Furthermore the model captured the observed increase in VLF occurrences across parts of the southwestern and southeastern US from 1984 to 2010 suggesting that, irrespective of changes in fuels and land management, climatic factors have become more favorable for VLF occurrence over the past three decades in some regions. Our modeling framework provides a basis for simulations of future VLF occurrences from climate projections.","Barbero, R.; J. T. Abatzoglou; E. A. Steel; Narasimhan K. Larkin",10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124009,1748-9326,12,"Environmental Research Letters",124009,"Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing",9,2014,,24275,d96a729a-a5db-4318-8f52-78f6031b42fd,"Journal Article",/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124009
/reference/de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5,de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5,"Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.","Abatzoglou, John T.; Williams, A. Park",10.1073/pnas.1607171113,,42,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",11770-11775,"Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests",113,2016,0,20416,de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1607171113
/reference/e1e1f3a0-9fea-4ad2-a3af-575716f9849e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e1e1f3a0-9fea-4ad2-a3af-575716f9849e,e1e1f3a0-9fea-4ad2-a3af-575716f9849e,"Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.","Westerling, A.L.
Hidalgo, H.G.
Cayan, D.R.
Swetnam, T.W.",10.1126/science.1128834,0036-8075,5789,Science,940-943,"Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity",313,2006,0,3397,e1e1f3a0-9fea-4ad2-a3af-575716f9849e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/science.1128834
/reference/ea8d831c-6b6b-4f8c-9b60-f17bab43660e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea8d831c-6b6b-4f8c-9b60-f17bab43660e,ea8d831c-6b6b-4f8c-9b60-f17bab43660e,"The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal “fire niche” in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2, the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2, primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards.","Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J.; Mahood, Adam L.",10.1073/pnas.1617394114,,11,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",2946-2951,"Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States",114,2017,,22012,ea8d831c-6b6b-4f8c-9b60-f17bab43660e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1617394114
/reference/f4daa36c-4b3f-449a-8d03-94cdd39fe1eb,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f4daa36c-4b3f-449a-8d03-94cdd39fe1eb,f4daa36c-4b3f-449a-8d03-94cdd39fe1eb,"Fire has a role in ecosystem services; naturally produced wildfires are important for the sustainability of many terrestrial biomes and fire is one of nature's primary carbon-cycling mechanisms. Under a warming climate, it is likely that fire frequency and severity will increase. There is some evidence that fire activity may already be increasing in Western U.S. forests and recent exceptionally intense fire events, such as the Australian Black Saturday fires in 2009 and Russian fires in 2010, highlight the devastation of fires associated with extreme weather. The impacts of emissions from fires on global atmospheric chemistry, and on the atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases and aerosols are recognized although gaps remain in our scientific understanding of the processes involved and the environmental consequences of fires. While significant uncertainty remains in the long-term impacts of forest fires on climate, new sophisticated tools have recently become available (observational and modeling). These tools provide insight into changing wildfires and intentional biomass burning activity in the Anthropocene era that is marked by humans’ impact on Earth. The understanding of the impact of wildfires and intentional biomass burning emissions on the present and future climate is reviewed. Presently, fires and their emissions are controlled under fire management and emission reduction schemes. Under future climate conditions, significantly more effective controls on these fires seem necessary. Continued and improved monitoring to support and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the adopted measures, and further deepening of knowledge on the mechanistic and sociological factors that influence fires and their environmental impacts is highly needed. Wildfires and biomass burning are important for a range of international and domestic policies, including air pollution, climate, poverty, security, food supply, and biodiversity. Climate change will make the need to coherently address fires based on scientifically sound measurements and modeling even more pertinent","Keywood, Melita; Kanakidou, Maria; Stohl, Andreas; Dentener, Frank; Grassi, Giacomo; Meyer, C. P.; Torseth, Kjetil; Edwards, David; Thompson, Anne M.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Burrows, John",10.1080/10643389.2011.604248,1547-6537,1,"Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology",40-83,"Fire in the air: Biomass burning impacts in a changing climate",43,2013,0,18904,f4daa36c-4b3f-449a-8d03-94cdd39fe1eb,"Journal Article",/article/10.1080/10643389.2011.604248
/reference/f680e49e-d58f-45c2-8ad6-a7bc97c12ca0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f680e49e-d58f-45c2-8ad6-a7bc97c12ca0,f680e49e-d58f-45c2-8ad6-a7bc97c12ca0,,"Williams, A Park; Abatzoglou, John T",10.1007/s40641-016-0031-0,2198-6061,1,"Current Climate Change Reports",1-14,"Recent advances and remaining uncertainties in resolving past and future climate effects on global fire activity",2,2016,,22662,f680e49e-d58f-45c2-8ad6-a7bc97c12ca0,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s40641-016-0031-0