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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-13-3";
   gcis:findingNumber "13.3"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "<p>The frequency and severity of allergic illnesses, including asthma and hay fever, are likely to increase as a result of a changing climate. Earlier spring arrival, warmer temperatures, changes in precipitation, and higher carbon dioxide concentrations can increase exposure to airborne pollen allergens. (<em>Likely, High Confidence</em>)</p>"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "<p>Due to limited resources and requirements imposed by the Federal Advisory Committee Act, the decision was made that this chapter would be developed using an all-federal author team. The author team was selected based on expertise in climate change impacts on air quality; several of the chapter authors were authors of the “Air Quality Impacts” chapter of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP) Climate and Health Assessment.{{< tbib '3' '5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690' >}} This chapter was developed through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation by the report authors via weekly teleconferences and email exchanges. The authors considered inputs and comments submitted by the public; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and federal agencies.</p><hr/>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p>Considerable evidence supports the conclusion that climate change and rising levels of CO<sub>2</sub> affect key aspects of aeroallergen biology, including the production, temporal distribution, and potential allergenicity of aeroallergens.{{< tbib '142' '14835bc7-3df6-4fac-9e9a-2863c09e800a' >}}{{<tbib '143' 'b7869aef-b3cd-40c5-9efd-588abf7af927' >}}{{<tbib '144' 'c60ed28e-5ec3-4b9b-8b41-c6c29e4fda70' >}}{{<tbib '145' 'f89543d6-09bf-436c-8f7e-c0f908473457' >}}{{<tbib '146' 'b95e5f99-5555-476e-a026-09597b43f8be' >}} This evidence includes historical trends indicating that climate change has altered seasonal exposure times for allergenic pollen.{{< tbib '113' '1c917926-3eba-452b-bd2b-f9e88b374312' >}} These changes in exposure times are associated with rising CO<sub>2</sub> levels, higher temperatures, changes in precipitation (which can extend the start or duration of pollen release times), and the amount of pollen released, the allergenicity of the pollen, and the spatial distribution of that pollen.{{< tbib '117' '1bc9d76c-14c8-4245-9ccb-1355cdc48d0b' >}}{{<tbib '118' 'be4c7d95-2b71-45fb-b901-b68f5c1ad057' >}}{{<tbib '119' '2d1ffd71-6c31-4d2e-9867-bdf330be45c1' >}}{{<tbib '147' '025515fc-f83a-47ff-b547-92ade9513c15' >}}</p><p>Specific changes in weather patterns or extremes are also likely to contribute to the exacerbation of allergy symptoms. For example, thunderstorms can induce spikes in aeroallergen concentrations and increase the incidence and severity of asthma and other allergic disease.{{< tbib '148' '713cd919-826b-426d-bf51-761a58ec7f22' >}}{{<tbib '149' '471472b2-1c16-40db-99e2-b529ab7e417b' >}} However, the specific mechanism for intensification of weather and allergic disease is not entirely understood.</p><p>Overall, climate change and rising CO<sub>2</sub> levels are likely to increase exposure to aeroallergens and contribute to the severity and prevalence of allergic disease, including asthma.{{< tbib '115' '971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba' >}} There is consistent and compelling evidence that exposure to aeroallergens poses a significant health risk in regard to the occurrence of asthma, hay fever, sinusitis, conjunctivitis, hives, and anaphylaxis.{{< tbib '150' '036ba27d-8341-4f6d-ad66-1288e53dee65' >}}{{<tbib '151' '12159d43-9762-4788-9a10-8e0ad5ab4d9a' >}}{{<tbib '152' '8e7c1bc6-33dc-479d-a0d7-0d8c90f647bf' >}}{{<tbib '153' 'b1d1a01e-78e1-4b26-a8b4-513c43a7240c' >}} Finally, there is evidence that synergies between aeroallergens and air pollution, especially particulate matter, may increase health risks for individuals who are simultaneously exposed.{{< tbib '154' '7a9fde66-dbc1-4152-bd11-2d68d4e7d66a' >}}{{<tbib '155' 'f978dc0e-2a56-4bc9-9c67-d2f2a1de0914' >}}{{<tbib '156' '3eabd82a-4bf8-4a43-9716-a019a02d9d8d' >}}</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<p>The scientific literature shows that there is <em>high confidence</em> that changes in climate, including rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns as well as rising levels of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>, will increase the concentration, allergenicity, season length, and spatial distribution of a number of aeroallergens. These changes in aeroallergen exposure are, in turn, <em>likely</em> to impact allergic disease.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "<p>While specific climate- and/or CO<sub>2</sub>-induced links to aeroallergen biology are evident, allergic diseases develop in response to complex and multiple interactions, including genetic and nongenetic factors, a developing immune system, environmental exposures (such as ambient air pollution or weather conditions), and socioeconomic and demographic factors. Overall, the role of these factors in eliciting a health response has not been entirely elucidated. However, recent evidence suggests that climate change and aeroallergens are having a discernible impact on public health.{{< tbib '123' 'c9c2ea5f-223f-4594-b182-40b473c6e665' >}}{{<tbib '157' '4beaa115-1cbe-404e-a62d-4a943c946820' >}}</p><p>There are a number of areas where additional information is needed, including regional variation in climate and aeroallergen production; specific links between aeroallergens and related diseases, particularly asthma; the need for standardized approaches to determine exposure times and pollen concentration; and uncertainty regarding the role of CO<sub>2</sub> on allergenicity.</p>"^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1398-9995.2010.02423.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/025515fc-f83a-47ff-b547-92ade9513c15>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.jaci.2008.06.032>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/036ba27d-8341-4f6d-ad66-1288e53dee65>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1097/WOX.0b013e3182260a57>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/12159d43-9762-4788-9a10-8e0ad5ab4d9a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1365-2222.2004.02061.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/14835bc7-3df6-4fac-9e9a-2863c09e800a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1289/ehp.8549>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1bc9d76c-14c8-4245-9ccb-1355cdc48d0b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/pmid-17195993>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1c917926-3eba-452b-bd2b-f9e88b374312>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1014107108>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2d1ffd71-6c31-4d2e-9867-bdf330be45c1>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1034/j.1398-9995.57.s72.5.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3eabd82a-4bf8-4a43-9716-a019a02d9d8d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/imj.13413>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/471472b2-1c16-40db-99e2-b529ab7e417b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.jaci.2011.09.025>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4beaa115-1cbe-404e-a62d-4a943c946820>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/air-quality-impacts>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1398-9995.2006.01271.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/713cd919-826b-426d-bf51-761a58ec7f22>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1053/rmed.2001.1112>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7a9fde66-dbc1-4152-bd11-2d68d4e7d66a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1186/2049-6958-8-12>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8e7c1bc6-33dc-479d-a0d7-0d8c90f647bf>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2017GH000055>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1365-2222.2008.03033.x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b1d1a01e-78e1-4b26-a8b4-513c43a7240c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/impacts-climate-change-on-allergens-allergic-diseases>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b7869aef-b3cd-40c5-9efd-588abf7af927>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/impacts-climate-change-on-allergens-allergic-diseases>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b95e5f99-5555-476e-a026-09597b43f8be>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1071/fp05039>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/be4c7d95-2b71-45fb-b901-b68f5c1ad057>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/air-quality/finding/key-message-13-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s11882-012-0314-z>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c60ed28e-5ec3-4b9b-8b41-c6c29e4fda70>.