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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-26-1";
   gcis:findingNumber "26.1"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement " <p>Alaska’s marine fish and wildlife habitats, species distributions, and food webs, all of which are important to Alaska’s residents, are increasingly affected by retreating and thinning arctic summer sea ice, increasing temperatures, and ocean acidification. Continued warming will accelerate related ecosystem alterations in ways that are difficult to predict, making adaptation more challenging (<em>very likely, very high confidence</em>).</p>"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "<p>The Alaska regional chapter was developed through public input via workshops and teleconferences and review of relevant literature, primarily post 2012. Formal and informal technical discussions and narrative development were conducted by the chapter lead and contributing authors via email exchanges, teleconferences, webinars, in-person meetings, and public meetings. The authors considered inputs and comments submitted by the public, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and federal agencies. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during multiple exchanges with contributing authors, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the Traceable Account associated with each Key Message.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p>Changes in arctic sea ice and its impacts on marine ecosystems and various biological resources are well documented by 38 years of satellite records{{< tbib '280' '2aa47611-1a24-4796-b0a8-a0ba3092e470' >}} and the scientific literature.{{< tbib '48' '13e01b3b-caf8-4d85-ac0f-5689df47762a' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '50' 'da92a0e3-1fab-4616-a181-ed764427b250' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '51' '379cfaee-cad3-44ac-95b1-8fbb068f4ab3' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '77' '4533be93-297b-42ce-99d3-898b575d8dee' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '78' '4aa97ec3-8028-499e-9ef2-9a73eafce4c6' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '79' '7fbfdebd-eb73-40be-88ec-109ad7a226fd' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '281' 'fbcc5bed-188c-42db-8b6c-f699814f3838' >}} The finding of a continuing retreat of arctic sea ice is supported by sea ice modeling and continued CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.{{< tbib '37' '61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '46' '6e730a84-66a2-4e74-96cb-c9e6824cf185' >}} The northward distribution of ocean fish species is documented by numerous scientific papers: see Perry et al. (2005),{{< tbib '282' '6591e535-9938-4885-9377-0154b655241d' >}} Thorsteinson and Love (2016),{{< tbib '17' 'eb929d72-ab8a-453a-bf91-d32bdd942b87' >}} and Mecklenburg et al. (2002).{{< tbib '72' '7c26ef52-3041-49fe-a99a-f597b17c72f6' >}} The impacts of an increased open Arctic sea contributing to increases in ocean acidification{{< tbib '18' '32a7c6b7-16ce-49f8-8667-7343d9d40ea9' >}} and expanding deeper into the Arctic Basin{{< tbib '57' '3edd9d0c-4aed-49d8-b248-483dcb0dfff0' >}} will need validation with further studies.</p> "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<p>There is <em>very</em> <em>high confidence</em> that the arctic sea ice will continue to reduce in size over the next 20–40 years, and it is <em>likely</em> that the Arctic Ocean will be nearly ice-free in late summer by mid-century based on current climate models. There is also <em>high confidence</em> that this melting will have an effect on the northward expansion of North Pacific fish species and associated effects on associated food webs. There is <em>very</em> <em>high confidence</em> that continued melting of the Arctic Ocean ice will have an effect on the habitat and behavior of polar bear and walrus. There is <em>high confidence</em> that Alaska’s ocean waters are becoming increasingly acidic. Given this increase, it is <em>very likely</em> that there will be biological impacts, but it is uncertain which species will be affected and to what extent.</p> "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "<p>To date, relatively few of Alaska’s marine species have been studied for their response to ocean acidification, and the assessment of potential impacts is challenging due to each species’ differing habitats, life cycle stages, and response and adaptation mechanisms. It is known that some organisms respond more dramatically to environmental change than others, and warming ocean temperatures may be more significant in the short term than ocean acidification. There is significant uncertainty in the projected increase of shipping through the Arctic and the Bering Strait, since much of this increase will be driven by economic factors and not climate or other environmental change.</p> "^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2016GL071489>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/13e01b3b-caf8-4d85-ac0f-5689df47762a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/webpage/11b8d26d-eadf-447a-9807-0619857388be>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2aa47611-1a24-4796-b0a8-a0ba3092e470>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5670/oceanog.2015.36>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/32a7c6b7-16ce-49f8-8667-7343d9d40ea9>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/mms.12156>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/379cfaee-cad3-44ac-95b1-8fbb068f4ab3>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate3228>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3edd9d0c-4aed-49d8-b248-483dcb0dfff0>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/pacific-marine-arctic-regional-synthesis-pacmars-final-report>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4533be93-297b-42ce-99d3-898b575d8dee>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.pocean.2015.05.017>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4aa97ec3-8028-499e-9ef2-9a73eafce4c6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1111322>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6591e535-9938-4885-9377-0154b655241d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2012GL052868>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6e730a84-66a2-4e74-96cb-c9e6824cf185>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/fishes-alaska>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7c26ef52-3041-49fe-a99a-f597b17c72f6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/adaptation-actions-changing-arctic-perspectives-bering-chukchi-beaufort-region>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7fbfdebd-eb73-40be-88ec-109ad7a226fd>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1890/14-1129.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/da92a0e3-1fab-4616-a181-ed764427b250>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/alaska-arctic-marine-fish-ecology-catalog>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/eb929d72-ab8a-453a-bf91-d32bdd942b87>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/alaska/finding/key-message-26-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-013-1038-3>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fbcc5bed-188c-42db-8b6c-f699814f3838>.