Figure : caq_observed_projected_global_temps

Observed and Projected Changes in Global Temperature

Figure A5.10

North Carolina State University
Kenneth E. Kunkel

This figure appears in chapter A5 of the Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II report.

This figure shows both observed and projected changes in global average temperature. Under a representative concentration pathway (RCP) consistent with a higher scenario (RCP8.5; red) by 2080–2099, global average temperature is projected to increase by 4.2°–8.5°F (2.4°–4.7°C; burnt orange shaded area) relative to the 1986–2015 average. Under a lower scenario (RCP4.5; blue) global average temperature is projected to increase by 1.7°–4.4°F (0.9°–2.4°C; range not shown on graph) relative to 1986–2015. Under an even lower scenario (RCP2.6; green) temperature increases could be limited to 0.4°–2.7°F (0.2°–1.5°C; green shaded area) relative to 1986–2015. Limiting the rise in global average temperature to less than 2.2°F (1.2°C) relative to 1986–2015 is approximately equivalent to 3.6°F (2°C) or less relative to preindustrial temperatures. Thick lines within shaded areas represent the average of multiple climate models. The shaded regions illustrate the 5% to 95% confidence intervals for the respective projections. Source: adapted from Wuebbles et al. 2017.666daffe-2c3b-4e2d-9157-16b989860618

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This figure was created on June 14, 2017.

This figure was submitted on December 03, 2018.

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