Figure : heat-projections-for-msas

Projected Change in the Number of Very Hot Days

Figure 11.2

LMI, North Carolina State University, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Department of Atmospheric Sciences, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Laura Stevens, Susan Herrod Julius, Terence Thompson

This figure appears in chapter 11 of the Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II report.

Projected increases in the number of very hot days (compared to the 1976–2005 average) are shown for each of five U.S. cities under lower (RCP4.5) and higher (RCP8.5) scenarios. Here, very hot days are defined as those on which the daily high temperature exceeds a threshold value specific to each of the five U.S. cities shown. Dots represent the modeled median (50th percentile) values, and the vertical bars show the range of values (5th to 95th percentile) from the models used in the analysis. Modeled historical values are shown for the same temperature thresholds, for the period 1976–2005, in the lower left corner of the figure. These and other U.S. cities are projected to see an increase in the number of very hot days over the rest of this century under both scenarios, affecting people, infrastructure, green spaces, and the economy. Increased air conditioning and energy demands raise utility bills and can lead to power outages and blackouts. Hot days can degrade air and water quality, which in turn can harm human health and decrease quality of life. Sources: NOAA NCEI, CICS-NC, and LMI.

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This figure was created on May 31, 2017.

This figure was submitted on December 03, 2018.

This figure was derived from scenario rcp_4_5
This figure was derived from scenario rcp_8_5

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