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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-11-3";
   gcis:findingNumber "11.3"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "<p>Interdependent networks of infrastructure, ecosystems, and social systems provide essential urban goods and services (<em>very high confidence)</em>. Damage to such networks from current weather extremes and future climate will adversely affect urban life (<em>medium confidence</em>)<em>.</em> Coordinated local, state, and federal efforts can address these interconnected vulnerabilities (<em>medium confidence</em>).</p>"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "<p>Report authors developed this chapter through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation and through regular teleconferences, meetings, and email exchanges. For additional information on the overall report process, see <em><a href='/chapter/appendix-1'>App. 1: Process</a></em>. The author team evaluated scientific evidence from peer-reviewed literature, technical reports, and consultations with professional experts and the public via webinar and teleconferences. The scope of this chapter is urban climate change impacts, vulnerability, and response. It covers the built environment and infrastructure systems in the socioeconomic context of urban areas. This chapter updates findings from the Third National Climate Assessment and advances the understanding of previously identified urban impacts by including emerging literature on urban adaptation and emphasizing how urban social and ecological systems are related to the built environment and infrastructure. The five case-study cities were selected because they represent a geographic diversity of urban impacts from wildfire, sea level rise, heat, and inland flooding. The author team was selected based on their experiences and expertise in the urban sector. They bring a diversity of disciplinary perspectives and have a strong knowledge base for analyzing the complex ways that climate change affects the built environment, infrastructure, and urban systems.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p>Research focusing on urban areas shows that climate change has or is anticipated to have a net negative effect on transportation,{{< tbib '43' 'd2f3853a-5f20-4132-92c8-57da1b4d95fc' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '205' '23e451ae-5f97-48cd-9b2d-73045ee9e38c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '223' '00e98394-26f1-45da-a5a3-e79b2b1a356f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '227' '38ce969d-14fa-4874-8b5e-0ee37f4ac79c' >}} food,{{< tbib '44' '9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '107' '74b22e64-6fce-418b-9f5a-aac88b4c1ba8' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '108' '3b4ad15d-6c3f-4421-8ea6-405a0568e262' >}} housing,{{< tbib '228' 'db26897b-7a6e-4c0a-81b6-e59aaa784de3' >}} the economy,{{< tbib '44' '9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '228' 'db26897b-7a6e-4c0a-81b6-e59aaa784de3' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '229' 'a52c7e70-0bfb-48da-bf90-cd93805e2d04' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '230' '514afdba-5220-424b-8b11-559478de7775' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '231' '4506c479-732e-4cc9-ae58-b3ab323f5f45' >}} ecology,{{< tbib '3' 'ce2db20d-ff1b-407c-873e-fde134a7929c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '152' 'ff1fea07-c899-4e5f-aff2-76510d06c57b' >}} public health,{{< tbib '2' 'b75bf8c7-f76f-4fd9-98d4-fd8fa08341f2' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '3' 'ce2db20d-ff1b-407c-873e-fde134a7929c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '12' 'f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '44' '9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '231' '4506c479-732e-4cc9-ae58-b3ab323f5f45' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '232' '626796fa-3b99-431e-bbfb-6eae974e96ae' >}} energy,{{< tbib '43' 'd2f3853a-5f20-4132-92c8-57da1b4d95fc' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '44' '9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '233' '0ab7f834-85a7-4e1f-8628-8c8dc765ae5b' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '234' '6f0557d7-ccaf-4a6a-8dac-25e859410881' >}} water,{{< tbib '43' 'd2f3853a-5f20-4132-92c8-57da1b4d95fc' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '122' 'dc51f598-91c5-4e1c-851d-7498ec8f8e1c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '228' 'db26897b-7a6e-4c0a-81b6-e59aaa784de3' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '235' 'fbfe4df4-0209-4593-9fe6-dd45f1a1abb1' >}} and sports and recreation.{{< tbib '2' 'b75bf8c7-f76f-4fd9-98d4-fd8fa08341f2' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '235' 'fbfe4df4-0209-4593-9fe6-dd45f1a1abb1' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '236' 'a4d671c3-8df4-4bc3-9c1e-ac340b9b2da5' >}}</p><p>Researchers have modeled and documented how negative effects on one system that provides urban goods and services cascade into others that rely on it.{{< tbib '3' 'ce2db20d-ff1b-407c-873e-fde134a7929c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '43' 'd2f3853a-5f20-4132-92c8-57da1b4d95fc' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '44' '9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '109' '73fa64e2-d10c-4e58-a237-6637fbcee870' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '122' 'dc51f598-91c5-4e1c-851d-7498ec8f8e1c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '229' 'a52c7e70-0bfb-48da-bf90-cd93805e2d04' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '231' '4506c479-732e-4cc9-ae58-b3ab323f5f45' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '233' '0ab7f834-85a7-4e1f-8628-8c8dc765ae5b' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '234' '6f0557d7-ccaf-4a6a-8dac-25e859410881' >}} Several draw on the example of Superstorm Sandy. These effects scale up to the national economy and across to other sectors, creating longer-term hazards and vulnerabilities.{{< tbib '44' '9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '99' '35e35ccf-1a66-4c2f-b852-7b1fe3bf3266' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '109' '73fa64e2-d10c-4e58-a237-6637fbcee870' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '227' '38ce969d-14fa-4874-8b5e-0ee37f4ac79c' >}} The energy–water nexus, defined as the reliance of energy and water systems on each other for functionality, is a good example of documented system interdependency.{{< tbib '43' 'd2f3853a-5f20-4132-92c8-57da1b4d95fc' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '234' '6f0557d7-ccaf-4a6a-8dac-25e859410881' >}} Research indicates that direct or high-level climate impacts on a variety of urban sectors (such as transportation, energy, drinking water, storm water) have cascading economic, socioeconomic, and public health consequences.{{< tbib '3' 'ce2db20d-ff1b-407c-873e-fde134a7929c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '12' 'f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '44' '9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '229' 'a52c7e70-0bfb-48da-bf90-cd93805e2d04' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '231' '4506c479-732e-4cc9-ae58-b3ab323f5f45' >}}</p><p>The literature shows that coordinated resilience planning across sectors and jurisdictions to address interdependencies involves using models and plans,{{< tbib '3' 'ce2db20d-ff1b-407c-873e-fde134a7929c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '43' 'd2f3853a-5f20-4132-92c8-57da1b4d95fc' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '108' '3b4ad15d-6c3f-4421-8ea6-405a0568e262' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '111' 'a801f371-29e2-4b63-9d99-0361f73453a1' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '227' '38ce969d-14fa-4874-8b5e-0ee37f4ac79c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '237' '9715fdad-2824-404b-b7bc-57077f1ad28d' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '238' '747e6b30-6afc-4520-af4b-660389e167ba' >}} finding effective intervention points,{{< tbib '109' '73fa64e2-d10c-4e58-a237-6637fbcee870' >}} creating system redundancy,{{< tbib '43' 'd2f3853a-5f20-4132-92c8-57da1b4d95fc' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '237' '9715fdad-2824-404b-b7bc-57077f1ad28d' >}} and motivating behavioral change. Recent reports discuss how interdependencies among energy, water, transportation, and communications services inform adaptation strategies that span sectors.<sup>{{< tbib '43' 'd2f3853a-5f20-4132-92c8-57da1b4d95fc' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '227' '38ce969d-14fa-4874-8b5e-0ee37f4ac79c' >}}</sup></p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<p>There is <em>very high confidence</em> that urban areas rely on essential goods and services that are vulnerable to climate change because they are part of interdependent networks of infrastructure, ecosystems, and social systems. There is <em>high confidence</em> that extreme weather events have resulted in adverse cascading effects across urban sectors and systems, as there is documentation of a significant number of case studies of urban areas demonstrating these effects. It is projected with <em>medium confidence</em> that network damages from future climate change will disrupt many aspects of urban life, given that the complexity of urban life and the many factors affecting urban resilience to climate change make future disruptions difficult to predict. Similarly, there is <em>medium confidence</em> that addressing interconnected vulnerabilities via coordinated efforts can build urban resilience to climate change.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "<p>Interconnections among urban systems have been studied less extensively than climate change effects on individual urban sectors, and there are still gaps to be filled.{{< tbib '239' 'b093b04e-26ca-4957-9fad-165e46d763bb' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '240' 'd8c54f0d-2378-4523-b144-e2bcc7cc0d7b' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '241' '253c37ce-07d5-4ee0-8d5e-ce57f8f85b4a' >}} The complexity of urban systems leads to uncertainty and modeling challenges. System models need to account for interconnections, feedback loops, and cascading effects from rural areas, among urban sectors, and within a sector. Creating a comprehensive framework to understand these connections is difficult.{{< tbib '239' 'b093b04e-26ca-4957-9fad-165e46d763bb' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '242' '38a397d4-812d-4af6-98fb-8f74dd8632ac' >}} There is a lack of forward-looking models of how projected climate changes will impact interdependent urban systems. Cities do not usually have the range of data needed to fully analyze system connections.{{< tbib '102' '92d52175-98b2-40ab-9ca7-4196f3c5e8e0' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '111' 'a801f371-29e2-4b63-9d99-0361f73453a1' >}} Mixed methods analysis, where professional experience and qualitative data supplement available datasets, may partially compensate for this problem.{{< tbib '241' '253c37ce-07d5-4ee0-8d5e-ce57f8f85b4a' >}} Despite information gaps, urban stakeholders are beginning to address system interconnections in adaptation efforts.{{< tbib '59' '3c3cc09b-c2d7-4c52-bf8f-c064efa78e93' >}}</p><p>While it has been demonstrated that climate change affects urban systems, the extent to which climate change will affect a given urban system is difficult to predict. It depends on the unique strengths and vulnerabilities of that system as well as the regional and local climate conditions to which the system is exposed.{{< tbib '110' '15c8ad4d-f96a-4bfb-8944-63d220e42f3b' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '223' '00e98394-26f1-45da-a5a3-e79b2b1a356f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '243' '600365e7-3302-4ede-afa1-f5c4e9e468a1' >}} Modifying factors include spatial layout, age of infrastructure, available resources, and ongoing resilience efforts.{{< tbib '43' 'd2f3853a-5f20-4132-92c8-57da1b4d95fc' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '244' 'faddfbf9-dbd6-45d5-a3f8-1ee63ccaa29d' >}} Similarly, critical points of intervention are unique to each urban area. Local-scale analysis of vulnerability and resilience has not been done for most U.S. cities.{{< tbib '102' '92d52175-98b2-40ab-9ca7-4196f3c5e8e0' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '241' '253c37ce-07d5-4ee0-8d5e-ce57f8f85b4a' >}}</p><p>The severity of future climate impacts and cascading consequences for urban networks depends on the magnitude of global climate change.{{< tbib '223' '00e98394-26f1-45da-a5a3-e79b2b1a356f' >}} Urban systems may be able to tolerate some levels of stress with only minor disruptions. Stresses of greater frequency, longer duration, or greater intensity may compromise a system’s ability to function.{{< tbib '36' 'aba07260-60ad-44df-9810-29f23f46facd' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '43' 'd2f3853a-5f20-4132-92c8-57da1b4d95fc' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '109' '73fa64e2-d10c-4e58-a237-6637fbcee870' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '122' 'dc51f598-91c5-4e1c-851d-7498ec8f8e1c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '227' '38ce969d-14fa-4874-8b5e-0ee37f4ac79c' >}} Models can reveal changes in the likelihood or frequency of occurrence for a particular type of extreme event (such as a 100-year flood), but they cannot predict when these events will occur or whether they will hit a particular city or town.{{< tbib '245' 'afbe359c-8f8d-4bff-a7ad-a8964262de37' >}}</p>"^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-013-1037-4>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00e98394-26f1-45da-a5a3-e79b2b1a356f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/measuring-resilience-energy-distribution-systems>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0ab7f834-85a7-4e1f-8628-8c8dc765ae5b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-action-megacities-30>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/15c8ad4d-f96a-4bfb-8944-63d220e42f3b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/transportation-resilience-adaptation-climate-change>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/23e451ae-5f97-48cd-9b2d-73045ee9e38c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/evaluating-urban-resilience-climate-change-multi-sector-approach>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/253c37ce-07d5-4ee0-8d5e-ce57f8f85b4a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/stronger-more-resilient-new-york>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/35e35ccf-1a66-4c2f-b852-7b1fe3bf3266>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.3390/cli3041079>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/38a397d4-812d-4af6-98fb-8f74dd8632ac>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/mta-climate-adaptation-task-force-resiliency-report>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/38ce969d-14fa-4874-8b5e-0ee37f4ac79c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s11252-015-0489-x>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3b4ad15d-6c3f-4421-8ea6-405a0568e262>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-adaptation-state-practice-us-communities>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3c3cc09b-c2d7-4c52-bf8f-c064efa78e93>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/climate-change-impacts-adaptation-cities-review-literature>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4506c479-732e-4cc9-ae58-b3ab323f5f45>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1057/gpp.2016.9>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/514afdba-5220-424b-8b11-559478de7775>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/preparing-climate-impacts-lessons-front-lines>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/600365e7-3302-4ede-afa1-f5c4e9e468a1>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1249/mss.0000000000000325>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/626796fa-3b99-431e-bbfb-6eae974e96ae>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/us-energy-sector-vulnerabilities-climate-change-extreme-weather>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6f0557d7-ccaf-4a6a-8dac-25e859410881>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/operational-group-sandy-technical-progress-report>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/73fa64e2-d10c-4e58-a237-6637fbcee870>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.01.001>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/747e6b30-6afc-4520-af4b-660389e167ba>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/food-climate-change-city>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/74b22e64-6fce-418b-9f5a-aac88b4c1ba8>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.uclim.2015.06.005>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/92d52175-98b2-40ab-9ca7-4196f3c5e8e0>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/resilient-sustainable-infrastructure-urban-energy-systems>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9715fdad-2824-404b-b7bc-57077f1ad28d>.



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/scenario/rcp_4_5>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/built-environment-urban-systems-and-cities/finding/key-message-11-3>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/scenario/rcp_8_5>.