Figure : projected-extreme-temperature-mortality

Projected Change in Annual Extreme Temperature Mortality

Figure 14.4

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Allison R. Crimmins

This figure appears in chapter 14 of the Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II report.

The maps show estimated changes in annual net mortality due to extremely hot and cold days in 49 U.S. cities for 2080–2099 as compared to 1989–2000. Across these cities, the change in mortality is projected to be an additional 9,300 deaths each year under a higher scenario (RCP8.5) and 3,900 deaths each year under a lower scenario (RCP4.5). Assuming a future in which the human health response to extreme temperatures in all 49 cities was equal to that of Dallas today (for example, as a result of availability of air conditioning or physiological adaptation) results in an approximate 50% reduction in these mortality estimates. For example, in Atlanta, an additional 349 people are projected to die from extreme temperatures each year by the end of century under RCP8.5. Assuming residents of Atlanta in 2090 have the adaptive capacity of Dallas residents today, this number is reduced to 128 additional deaths per year. Cities without circles should not be interpreted as having no extreme temperature impact. Data not available for the U.S. Caribbean, Alaska, or Hawai‘i & U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands regions. Source: adapted from EPA 2017.0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94

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This figure was created on April 06, 2018.

This figure was submitted on November 23, 2018.

This figure was derived from scenario rcp_4_5
This figure was derived from scenario rcp_8_5

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