uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Journal,attrs.Title,"attrs.Type of Article",attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,"Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.","O’Neill, Brian C.; M. Done, James; Gettelman, Andrew; Lawrence, Peter; Lehner, Flavio; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Lei; J. Monaghan, Andrew; Oleson, Keith; Ren, Xiaolin; M. Sanderson, Benjamin; Tebaldi, Claudia; Weitzel, Matthias; Xu, Yangyang; Anderson, Brooke; Fix, Miranda J.; Levis, Samuel",10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x,"July 26",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis","journal article",2017,24077,0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x
/reference/00234d41-c8e2-49c1-8b7a-8a2c0ad9b6df,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00234d41-c8e2-49c1-8b7a-8a2c0ad9b6df,00234d41-c8e2-49c1-8b7a-8a2c0ad9b6df,"Using ensembles from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) under a high and a lower emission scenarios, we investigate changes in statistics of extreme daily temperature. The ensembles provide large samples for a robust application of extreme value theory. We estimate return values and return periods for annual maxima of the daily high and low temperatures as well as the 3-day averages of the same variables in current and future climate. Results indicate statistically significant increases (compared to the reference period of 1996–2005) in extreme temperatures over all land areas as early as 2025 under both scenarios, with statistically significant differences between them becoming pervasive over the globe by 2050. The substantially smaller changes, for all indices, produced under the lower emission case translate into sizeable benefits from emission mitigation: By 2075, in terms of reduced changes in 1-day heat extremes, about 95 % of land regions would see benefits of 1 °C or more under the lower emissions scenario, and 50 % or more of the land areas would benefit by at least 2 °C. 6 % of the land area would benefit by 3 °C or more in projected extreme minimum temperatures and 13 % would benefit by this amount for extreme maximum temperature. Benefits for 3-day metrics are similar. The future frequency of current extremes is also greatly reduced by mitigation: by the end of the century, under RCP8.5 more than half the land area experiences the current 20-year events every year while only between about 10 and 25 % of the area is affected by such severe changes under RCP4.5.","Tebaldi, Claudia; Wehner, Michael F.",10.1007/s10584-016-1605-5,,1573-1480,"Climatic Change","Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5",,2016,20060,00234d41-c8e2-49c1-8b7a-8a2c0ad9b6df,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1605-5
/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,,"EPA,",,,,,"Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment",,2017,21365,0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,Report,/report/epa-multi-model-framework-for-quantitative-sectoral-impacts-analysis-2017
/reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,,"Chapra, Steven C.; Boehlert, Brent; Fant, Charles; Bierman, Victor J.; Henderson, Jim; Mills, David; Mas, Diane M. L.; Rennels, Lisa; Jantarasami, Lesley; Martinich, Jeremy; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Paerl, Hans W.",10.1021/acs.est.7b01498,2017/08/15,0013-936X,"Environmental Science & Technology","Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment",,2017,21473,28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,"Journal Article",/article/10.1021/acs.est.7b01498
/reference/4308e866-5976-4181-8102-24b521ff4033,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4308e866-5976-4181-8102-24b521ff4033,4308e866-5976-4181-8102-24b521ff4033,,"Belova, Anna; David Mills; Ronald Hall; Alexis St. Juliana; Allison Crimmins; Chris Barker; Russell Jones",10.4236/ajcc.2017.61010,,,"American Journal of Climate Change","Impacts of increasing temperature on the future incidence of West Nile neuroinvasive disease in the United States",,2017,23725,4308e866-5976-4181-8102-24b521ff4033,"Journal Article",/article/10.4236/ajcc.2017.61010
/reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,,"Fann, Neal; Nolte, Christopher G.; Dolwick, Patrick; Spero, Tanya L.; Curry Brown, Amanda; Phillips, Sharon; Anenberg, Susan",10.1080/10962247.2014.996270,,2162-2906,"Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association","The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030",,2015,16106,54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,"Journal Article",/article/10.1080/10962247.2014.996270
/reference/62152261-5dbb-4723-9506-ef63053863dd,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/62152261-5dbb-4723-9506-ef63053863dd,62152261-5dbb-4723-9506-ef63053863dd,,"Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.",10.1038/nclimate1827,,1758-6798,"Nature Climate Change","Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming",,2013,18846,62152261-5dbb-4723-9506-ef63053863dd,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate1827
/reference/6e83fde3-5f98-4fd1-ae2c-d11aced414ac,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6e83fde3-5f98-4fd1-ae2c-d11aced414ac,6e83fde3-5f98-4fd1-ae2c-d11aced414ac,,"Gordon, Kate; the Risky Business Project,",,,,,"The economic risks of climate change in the United States : A climate risk assessment for the United States",,2014,23096,6e83fde3-5f98-4fd1-ae2c-d11aced414ac,Report,/report/riskybusiness-2014
/reference/8e30bef3-ce8e-4df4-879b-21f809b02998,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8e30bef3-ce8e-4df4-879b-21f809b02998,8e30bef3-ce8e-4df4-879b-21f809b02998,"Extreme heat is a significant public health challenge in urban environments that disproportionally impacts vulnerable members of society. In this research, demographic, economic and climate projections are brought together with a statistical approach linking extreme heat and mortality in Houston, Texas. The sensitivity of heat-related non-accidental mortality to future changes of demographics, income and climate is explored. We compare climate change outcomes associated with two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which describe alternate future scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations. For each RCP, we explore demographic and economic scenarios for two plausible Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Our findings suggest that non-accidental mortality in 2061–2080 may increase for all combinations of RCP and SSP scenarios compared to a historical reference period spanning 1991–2010. Notably, increased heat-related non-accidental mortality is associated with changes in the size and age of the population, but the degree of sensitivity is highly uncertain given the breadth of plausible socioeconomic scenarios. Beyond socioeconomic changes, climate change is also important. For each socioeconomic scenario, non-accidental mortality associated with the lower emissions RCP4.5 scenario is projected to be 50 % less than mortality projected under the higher emissions RCP8.5 scenario.","Marsha, A.; Sain, S. R.; Heaton, M. J.; Monaghan, A. J.; Wilhelmi, O.V.",10.1007/s10584-016-1775-1,"August 30",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","Influences of climatic and population changes on heat-related mortality in Houston, Texas, USA","journal article",2016,23558,8e30bef3-ce8e-4df4-879b-21f809b02998,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1775-1
/reference/8f2308d0-7a25-4c47-82e0-cb9196f1de8b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8f2308d0-7a25-4c47-82e0-cb9196f1de8b,8f2308d0-7a25-4c47-82e0-cb9196f1de8b,,"Graff Zivin, Joshua; Neidell, Matthew",10.1086/671766,,1537-5307,"Journal of Labor Economics","Temperature and the allocation of time: Implications for climate change",,2014,17597,8f2308d0-7a25-4c47-82e0-cb9196f1de8b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1086/671766
/reference/a5d430bc-5756-42d1-924f-3dbc927e69c4,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a5d430bc-5756-42d1-924f-3dbc927e69c4,a5d430bc-5756-42d1-924f-3dbc927e69c4,"Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and a 15-member ensemble driven by RCP4.5. Significant differences are found between urban and grid cell-average heat/cold wave characteristics. Most notably, urban heat waves for 1981–2005 are more intense than grid cell-average by 2.1 °C (southeast) to 4.6 °C (southwest), while cold waves are less intense. We assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061–2080 when following the lower forcing scenario. Urban heat wave days per year increase from 6 in 1981–2005 to up to 92 (southeast) in RCP8.5. Following RCP4.5 reduces heat wave days by about 50 %. Large avoided impacts are demonstrated for individual communities; e.g., the longest heat wave for Houston in RCP4.5 is 38 days while in RCP8.5 there is one heat wave per year that is longer than a month with some lasting the entire summer. Heat waves also start later in the season in RCP4.5 (earliest are in early May) than RCP8.5 (mid-April), compared to 1981–2005 (late May). In some communities, cold wave events decrease from 2 per year for 1981–2005 to one-in-five year events in RCP4.5 and one-in-ten year events in RCP8.5.","Oleson, K. W.; Anderson, G. B.; Jones, B.; McGinnis, S. A.; Sanderson, B.",10.1007/s10584-015-1504-1,"September 23",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5","journal article",2015,23564,a5d430bc-5756-42d1-924f-3dbc927e69c4,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1504-1
/reference/bbca6337-718b-4289-b6e7-0a2f6c1cb8f1,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bbca6337-718b-4289-b6e7-0a2f6c1cb8f1,bbca6337-718b-4289-b6e7-0a2f6c1cb8f1,,"Houser, Trevor; Kopp, Robert; Hsiang, Solomon; Michael Delgado; Amir Jina; Kate Larsen; Michael Mastrandrea; Shashank Mohan; Robert Muir-Wood; DJ Rasmussen; James Rising; Paul Wilson",,,,,"American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks in the United States",,2014,21430,bbca6337-718b-4289-b6e7-0a2f6c1cb8f1,Report,/report/american-climate-prospectus-economic-risks-united-states
/reference/ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,"Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061–2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario—going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.","Anderson, G. Brooke; Oleson, Keith W.; Jones, Bryan; Peng, Roger D.",10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x,"August 30",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities","journal article",2016,24145,ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x
/reference/f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6,f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6,,USGCRP,10.7930/J0R49NQX,,,,"The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment",,2016,19368,f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6,Book,/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016
/reference/f9703346-dc6b-4b3e-aad6-2643c74f5292,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f9703346-dc6b-4b3e-aad6-2643c74f5292,f9703346-dc6b-4b3e-aad6-2643c74f5292,"Heat waves are among the most dangerous climate-related hazards, and they are projected to increase in frequency and intensity over the coming century. Exposure to heat waves is a function of the spatial distribution of physical events and the corresponding population distribution, and future exposure will be impacted by changes in both distributions. Here, we project future exposure using ensembles of climate projections that account for the urban heat island effect, for two alternative emission scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5) and two alternative population and urbanization (SSP3/SSP5) outcomes. We characterize exposure at the global, regional, and grid-cell level; estimate the exposure that would be avoided by mitigating future levels of climate change (to RCP4.5); and quantify the dependence of exposure on population outcomes. We find that climate change is a stronger determinant of exposure than demographic change in these scenarios, with a global reduction in exposure of over 50% under a lower emissions pathway, while a slower population growth pathway leads to roughly 30% less exposure. Exposure reduction varies at the regional level, but in almost all cases, the RCP remains more influential than the SSP. Uncertainty in outcomes is dominated by inter-annual variability in heat extremes (relative to variability across initial condition ensemble members). For some regions, this variability is large enough that a reduction in annual exposure is not guaranteed in each individual year by following the lower forcing pathway. Finally, we find that explicitly considering the urban heat island effect and separate urban and rural heat extremes and populations can substantially influence results, generally increasing projected exposure.","Jones, Bryan; Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian C.; Oleson, Keith; Gao, Jing",10.1007/s10584-017-2133-7,"February 01",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change","journal article",2018,25322,f9703346-dc6b-4b3e-aad6-2643c74f5292,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2133-7
/reference/fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,"Episodes of severe weather in the United States, such as the present abundance of rainfall in California, are brandished as tangible evidence of the future costs of current climate trends. Hsiang et al. collected national data documenting the responses in six economic sectors to short-term weather fluctuations. These data were integrated with probabilistic distributions from a set of global climate models and used to estimate future costs during the remainder of this century across a range of scenarios (see the Perspective by Pizer). In terms of overall effects on gross domestic product, the authors predict negative impacts in the southern United States and positive impacts in some parts of the Pacific Northwest and New England.Science, this issue p. 1362; see also p. 1330Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).","Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Jina, Amir; Rising, James; Delgado, Michael; Mohan, Shashank; Rasmussen, D. J.; Muir-Wood, Robert; Wilson, Paul; Oppenheimer, Michael; Larsen, Kate; Houser, Trevor",10.1126/science.aal4369,,,Science,"Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States",,2017,23965,fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/science.aal4369