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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change/finding/key-message-5-1>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-5-1";
   gcis:findingNumber "5.1"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement " <p>Changes in land cover continue to impact local- to global-scale weather and climate by altering the flow of energy, water, and greenhouse gases between the land and the atmosphere <em>(high confidence)</em>. Reforestation can foster localized cooling <em>(medium confidence)</em>, while in urban areas, continued warming is expected to exacerbate urban heat island effects <em>(high confidence)</em>.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "<p>Chapter authors developed the chapter through technical discussions, literature review, and expert deliberation via email and phone discussions. The authors considered feedback from the general public, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and federal agencies. For additional information about the overall process for developing the report, see <a href='/appendix/1'>Appendix 1: Process</a>.</p> <p>The topic of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) overlaps with numerous other national sectoral chapters <em>(for example, <a href='/chapter/6'>Ch. 6: Forests</a>; <a href='/chapter/10'>Ch. 10: Ag &amp; Rural</a>; <a href='/chapter/11'>Ch. 11: Urban</a>)</em> and is a fundamental characteristic of all regional chapters in this National Climate Assessment. This national sectoral chapter thus focuses on the dynamic interactions between land change and the climate system. The primary focus is to review our current understanding of land change and climate interactions by examining how land change drives changes in local- to global-scale weather and climate and how, in turn, the climate drives changes in land cover and land use through both biophysical and socioeconomic responses. Where possible, the literature cited in this chapter is specific to changes in the United States.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p>The Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID) project{{< tbib '88' '9724e954-e516-40f1-9d0c-12396f63bd12' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '151' 'e80f1d68-00df-48cb-8372-c52b36879ba4' >}} evaluated climate response to LULCC using seven coupled land surface models (LSMs) and global climate models (GCMs) to determine effects that were larger than model variability and consistent across all seven models. Results showed significant discrepancies in the effect of LULCC (principally, the conversion of forest to cropland and grassland at temperate and higher latitudes) on near-surface air temperatures; the discrepancies were mainly attributable to the modeling of turbulent flux (sensible heat [the energy required to change temperature] and latent heat [the energy needed to change the phase of a substance, such as from a liquid to a gas]). Land surface models need to be subjected to more rigorous evaluations{{< tbib '151' 'e80f1d68-00df-48cb-8372-c52b36879ba4' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '152' 'c81bdacc-63c5-461b-a586-b6a33c69fe26' >}} and evaluate more than turbulent fluxes and net ecosystem exchange.{{< tbib '152' 'c81bdacc-63c5-461b-a586-b6a33c69fe26' >}} Rigorous evaluations should extend to the parameterization of albedo,{{< tbib '153' 'bb8fc4fd-559b-4ee3-9f73-82aafa1e3805' >}} including the effect of canopy density on the albedo of snow-covered land;{{< tbib '154' '46ff7f8c-532b-415c-90a7-724aa440979a' >}} the seasonal cycle of albedo related to the extent, timing, and persistence of snow;{{< tbib '155' '34366f3e-a66f-4ff4-a4ca-b7101ffacf97' >}} and the benchmarking of the effect of present-day land cover change on albedo.{{< tbib '156' 'a7c74eca-75d9-4750-aa97-8ec3a87856d6' >}} More recently, there is consistent modeling and empirical evidence that forests tend to be cooler than nearby croplands and grasslands.{{< tbib '91' '09c64d74-bd7c-4bc5-bb28-ab597a7b225d' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '92' 'a631c5fc-9d86-4f16-9e84-021d306568cf' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '93' '0fa5c0aa-9e41-4ce5-8770-f43fd181c61e' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '95' 'edd9b30c-5c5d-4d44-b2b0-38296699ad42' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '96' '1370a540-a389-4b2f-93aa-e169f3b27ec2' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '156' 'a7c74eca-75d9-4750-aa97-8ec3a87856d6' >}}</p> <p>The study of the influence of wildland fire on climate is at its advent and lacks a significant knowledge base.{{< tbib '98' 'b541b2e9-ffac-447b-9098-6516f9a7bd8d' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '99' '1639ecca-a0ca-48f4-b64c-a447fe137284' >}} Improved understanding would require more research on the detection of fire characteristics;{{< tbib '157' '9074a177-82cd-490c-a669-dac34268dadb' >}} fire emissions;{{< tbib '158' 'e97dbfb4-6ce6-4329-8389-bcf5a7a06d8a' >}} and the relative roles of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, aerosol emissions, and surface albedo changes in climate forcing.{{< tbib '98' 'b541b2e9-ffac-447b-9098-6516f9a7bd8d' >}}</p> <p>The urban heat island (UHI) is perhaps the most unambiguous documentation of anthropogenic modification of climate.{{< tbib '159' '71fd8e9a-5d84-4d79-bff0-35da4ee4e999' >}} Two studies have found that the stunning rate of urbanization in China has led to regional warming,{{< tbib '105' '994fde97-75e2-462d-8d41-f70b096c01c0' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '106' 'cc8c0a04-4945-4069-a94d-d9b2e3da7aec' >}} which is consistent with the observation that land-use and land-cover changes must be extensive for their effects to be realized.{{< tbib '87' 'a81627c2-d26d-474a-a2ca-e42d6ab0bfac' >}} Research on the effects of urbanization on precipitation patterns has not produced consistent results.{{< tbib '113' '3a32c45b-bf35-41c1-b86f-a568f54485fd' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '114' '97afeefb-daa0-4b8b-ad44-7a4414547827' >}} Uncertainties related to the effect of urban areas on precipitation arise from the interactions among the UHI, increased surface roughness (for example, tall buildings), and increased aerosol concentrations.{{< tbib '160' 'e02f219f-4d94-4aac-8592-c3ca14693aba' >}} In general, UHIs produce updrafts that lead to enhanced precipitation either in or downwind of urban areas, whereas urban surface roughness and urban aerosol concentrations can either further contribute to or dampen the updrafts that arise from the UHI.{{< tbib '160' 'e02f219f-4d94-4aac-8592-c3ca14693aba' >}}</p> "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<p>There is <em>medium confidence</em> that deforestation throughout much of the continental United States promotes climate warming through a decrease in carbon sequestration and reduced transpiration. There is <em>low confidence</em> that wildland fires will impact climate, because many of the associated processes and characteristics produce counteracting effects. There is <em>high confidence</em> that urbanization produces local-scale climate change, but there is <em>low confidence</em> in its influence on precipitation patterns. There is <em>high confidence</em> that surface air temperature is reduced near areas of irrigated agriculture and <em>medium confidence</em> that downwind precipitation is increased.</p> "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "<p>Land use and land cover are dynamic; therefore, climate is influenced by a constantly changing land surface. Considerable uncertainties are associated with land-cover and land-use monitoring and projection.{{< tbib '161' '06e194ef-b57f-4a5e-b633-7e58386dcfd8' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '162' 'b8957392-913e-4d32-bfdb-544efbd5ccb9' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '163' 'ff9ffc0a-4f57-4c2f-9137-ecaa8b0fd5ee' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '164' '3770dd69-0cf4-44c9-84a5-ed62a2e66841' >}} Land-cover maps can be derived from remote sensing approaches, but comprehensive approaches are typically characterized by coarse temporal resolution.{{< tbib '2' '437471ba-9fe3-4547-b193-7bf3ec00fbf3' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '3' 'f859d4bf-3716-4300-9779-6f6af8ce4c66' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '59' 'e0e4c3fb-f4f5-42a4-a64a-7e21d8eaa355' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '60' '00bfab03-4a87-486b-90d2-4707410fe9f9' >}} More recently, remote sensing has enabled annual classification over large areas (national and global), though these efforts have been centered on a single land cover or disturbance type.{{< tbib '68' 'a763e6c4-f1c0-41b0-954a-524bfdad6300' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '165' '6a3ce882-e3f6-47c6-a9ae-dacb25c45e7f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '166' 'c7b0af41-0488-4efa-9216-592dc6f30805' >}} Comprehensive multitemporal mapping of land use is even more limited and is a source of considerable uncertainty in understanding land change and feedbacks with the climate system. Deforestation, urbanization, wildland fire, and irrigated agriculture are the main land-use and land-cover changes that influence climate locally and regionally throughout the United States. Deforestation is likely to behave as a warming agent throughout most of the United States, but higher confidence in this finding would require more research on how to treat sensible and latent heat fluxes in coupled GCM–LSM models; the relationship of albedo to forest density in the presence of snow; the timing, persistence, and extent of snow cover; and real-world comparisons of the response of albedo to land-cover change. Urbanization constitutes a continued expansion of the UHI effect, increasing warming at local scales. Determining the effect of urbanization on precipitation patterns and storm tracks would require extensive, additional research. Tabular irrigation water volume estimates, such as those provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey, must be translated into maps so that the data can be input in GCMs and LSMs to determine the impact of irrigation on climate. Current translation schemes do not provide consistent model output.{{< tbib '124' '277a4220-6a9d-4820-8a11-c10dc83b0494' >}} The effect of wildland fires on climate processes is an emerging issue for which there is little research. Fire releases carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) and other GHGs to the atmosphere, which, along with a decreased albedo, should promote warming. These warming effects, however, may be counterbalanced by the release of aerosols to the atmosphere and enhanced carbon sequestration by forest regrowth.{{< tbib '99' '1639ecca-a0ca-48f4-b64c-a447fe137284' >}}</p> "^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change/finding/key-message-5-1>
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