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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change/finding/key-message-5-2>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-5-2";
   gcis:findingNumber "5.2"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement " <p>Climate change affects land use and ecosystems. Climate change is expected to directly and indirectly impact land use and cover by altering disturbance patterns (<em>medium confidence)</em>, species distributions (<em>medium confidence</em>), and the suitability of land for specific uses (<em>low confidence</em>). The composition of the natural and human landscapes, and how society uses the land, affects the ability of the Nation’s ecosystems to provide essential goods and services (<em>high confidence</em>).</p>"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "<p>Chapter authors developed the chapter through technical discussions, literature review, and expert deliberation via email and phone discussions. The authors considered feedback from the general public, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and federal agencies. For additional information about the overall process for developing the report, see <a href='/appendix/1'>Appendix 1: Process</a>.</p> <p>The topic of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) overlaps with numerous other national sectoral chapters <em>(for example, <a href='/chapter/6'>Ch. 6: Forests</a>; <a href='/chapter/10'>Ch. 10: Ag &amp; Rural</a>; <a href='/chapter/11'>Ch. 11: Urban</a>)</em> and is a fundamental characteristic of all regional chapters in this National Climate Assessment. This national sectoral chapter thus focuses on the dynamic interactions between land change and the climate system. The primary focus is to review our current understanding of land change and climate interactions by examining how land change drives changes in local- to global-scale weather and climate and how, in turn, the climate drives changes in land cover and land use through both biophysical and socioeconomic responses. Where possible, the literature cited in this chapter is specific to changes in the United States.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p>Much of the research assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture has been undertaken as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP),{{< tbib '128' 'b84b193b-ca98-479c-b5ef-fe94e5ffd39c' >}} which has been understandably focused on productivity and food security.{{< tbib '128' 'b84b193b-ca98-479c-b5ef-fe94e5ffd39c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '129' '21eb6d9e-0c16-47cd-81b4-95c61584731f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '167' '106d0098-646c-456e-8b53-38162cfe74f0' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '168' '4a217f31-e1bf-4cf6-82ab-3a969a1b3b52' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '169' 'b600eba8-c12a-4403-90e2-bea74f5d0c7a' >}} Less effort has been devoted to understanding the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of agriculture. Deryng et al. (2011){{< tbib '170' '9a44e46a-1f5f-4f65-95a9-3be834c2b7c4' >}} used one of the AgMIP crop models (PEGASUS) to show poleward and westward shifts in areas devoted to corn, soybean, and wheat production. Parker and Abatzoglou (2016){{< tbib '130' '0a8508df-df59-4080-89a2-52bfeaca47e0' >}} have reported a poleward migration of the USDA’s cold hardiness zones as a result of a warming climate. Several empirical studies have found an increase in wildland fires in the western United States over the last several decades,{{< tbib '18' '80cf45a9-2066-4434-ae46-0e8f53b2427d' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '101' 'de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '171' '5bd55977-f882-4065-99c7-2fbb4945cb7b' >}} in which indicators of aridity correlate positively with the amount of area burned. Several studies have reported a decline in forest cover throughout the western United States and project future declines due to a warming climate and increasing aridity, as well as the concomitant likely increase in pest outbreaks and fire.{{< tbib '144' '37982de0-0e01-476f-b522-b8162d709134' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '145' 'b502bf1e-381e-4e41-9062-6a8d111e6712' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '172' '878be8a3-989e-497d-af88-5417df6ab074' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '173' '5ba92ba4-eb88-480e-91de-a442b293e649' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '174' '15129c59-d64f-408a-8c67-582838d5565a' >}} Several studies have also reported a poleward shift in the forest communities of the eastern United States, resulting primarily from CO<sub>2</sub> enrichment in a warming and wetter environment.{{< tbib '12' 'c7860ce7-92b4-4743-a1e5-1f126ae04b58' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '144' '37982de0-0e01-476f-b522-b8162d709134' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '147' '26bd44a5-f9f3-49b5-9b96-5172e78da431' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '148' '72d090b9-f1e4-4d82-86e6-feb8f0907105' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '149' '59173115-7f0c-41a2-9422-d725f53df427' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '175' 'ca39a1dc-106b-4e84-a88e-6ff9f42ea77d' >}}</p> "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<p>There is <em>high confidence</em> that climate change will contribute to changes in agricultural land use; however, there is <em>low confidence</em> in the direction and magnitude of change due to uncertainties in the capacity to adapt to climate change. There is <em>high confidence</em> that climate change will impact urbanization in coastal areas, where sea level rise will continue to have direct effects. There is <em>medium confidence</em> that climate change will alter natural disturbance regimes; however, land management activities, such as fire suppression strategies, are likely to be of equal or greater importance. There is <em>low confidence</em> that climate change will result in changes to land cover resulting from changes in species distribution environmental suitability.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "<p>Determining the impact of climate change on agriculture requires the integration of climate, crop, and economic models,{{< tbib '176' 'e929c4c4-1ded-4644-9814-ab19f1a8b4eb' >}} each with its own sources of uncertainty that can propagate through the three models. Sources of uncertainty include the response of crops to the intermingled factors of CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization, temperature, water, and nitrogen availability; species-specific responses; model parameterization; spatial location of irrigated areas; and other factors.{{< tbib '129' '21eb6d9e-0c16-47cd-81b4-95c61584731f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '169' 'b600eba8-c12a-4403-90e2-bea74f5d0c7a' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '177' '6402d058-2f17-4e9f-b28b-1d3da06ca739' >}} The projection of recent empirical fire–climate relationships{{< tbib '18' '80cf45a9-2066-4434-ae46-0e8f53b2427d' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '101' 'de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '171' '5bd55977-f882-4065-99c7-2fbb4945cb7b' >}} into the future introduces uncertainty, as the empirical results cannot account for future anthropogenic influences (for example, fire suppression management) and vegetation response to future fires.{{< tbib '171' '5bd55977-f882-4065-99c7-2fbb4945cb7b' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '178' 'f680e49e-d58f-45c2-8ad6-a7bc97c12ca0' >}} Similarly, process-based models must account for vegetation response to fire, uncertainty in precipitation predictions from climate models, and spatiotemporal nonuniformity in human interactions with fire and vegetation.{{< tbib '178' 'f680e49e-d58f-45c2-8ad6-a7bc97c12ca0' >}} Many of the studies on climate-induced spatial migration of vegetation are based on dynamic global vegetation models, which are commonly based only on climate and soil inputs. These models aggregate species characteristics that are not uniform across all species represented and are generally lacking ecological processes that would influence a species’ range shift.{{< tbib '179' '00a8c280-09c0-4002-a8f5-53ef7b345fff' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '180' 'c910075b-e0af-46bb-bd30-1ed99f176cc9' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '181' '8bb1a5f1-1b12-463f-8a1e-d72c1d982471' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '182' '779de54f-5c3a-4b8e-8a36-ef4a0eb66638' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '183' '10fa693a-fa23-47eb-b683-6a1e9c4b0851' >}} Considerable uncertainties are associated with land-cover and land-use monitoring and projection.{{< tbib '161' '06e194ef-b57f-4a5e-b633-7e58386dcfd8' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '162' 'b8957392-913e-4d32-bfdb-544efbd5ccb9' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '163' 'ff9ffc0a-4f57-4c2f-9137-ecaa8b0fd5ee' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '164' '3770dd69-0cf4-44c9-84a5-ed62a2e66841' >}} Land-cover maps can be derived from remote sensing approaches; however, comprehensive approaches are typically characterized by coarse temporal resolution.{{< tbib '2' '437471ba-9fe3-4547-b193-7bf3ec00fbf3' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '3' 'f859d4bf-3716-4300-9779-6f6af8ce4c66' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '59' 'e0e4c3fb-f4f5-42a4-a64a-7e21d8eaa355' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '60' '00bfab03-4a87-486b-90d2-4707410fe9f9' >}} More recently, remote sensing has enabled annual classification over large areas (at national and global scales), but these efforts have been centered on a single land cover or disturbance type.{{< tbib '68' 'a763e6c4-f1c0-41b0-954a-524bfdad6300' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '165' '6a3ce882-e3f6-47c6-a9ae-dacb25c45e7f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '166' 'c7b0af41-0488-4efa-9216-592dc6f30805' >}} Comprehensive multitemporal mapping of land use is even more limited and is a source of considerable uncertainty in understanding land change and feedbacks with the climate system.</p> "^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change/finding/key-message-5-2>
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change/finding/key-message-5-2>
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change/finding/key-message-5-2>
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change/finding/key-message-5-2>
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change/finding/key-message-5-2>
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change/finding/key-message-5-2>
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change/finding/key-message-5-2>
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/land-cover-and-land-use-change/finding/key-message-5-2>
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