uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Journal,"attrs.Name of Database",attrs.Pages,attrs.Title,attrs.Volume,attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e,9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e,"OBJECTIVES: We examined how individual and area socio-demographic characteristics independently modified the extreme heat (EH)-mortality association among elderly residents of 8 Michigan cities, May-September, 1990-2007. METHODS: In a time-stratified case-crossover design, we regressed cause-specific mortality against EH (indicator for 4-day mean, minimum, maximum or apparent temperature above 97th or 99th percentiles). We examined effect modification with interactions between EH and personal marital status, age, race, sex and education and ZIP-code percent “non-green space” (National Land Cover Dataset), age, race, income, education, living alone, and housing age (U.S. Census). RESULTS: In models including multiple effect modifiers, the odds of cardiovascular mortality during EH (99(th) percentile threshold) vs. non-EH were higher among non-married individuals (1.21, 95% CI = 1.14-1.28 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.90-1.07 among married individuals) and individuals in ZIP codes with high (91%) non-green space (1.17, 95% CI = 1.06-1.29 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.89-1.07 among individuals in ZIP codes with low (39%) non-green space). Results suggested that housing age may also be an effect modifier. For the EH-respiratory mortality association, the results were inconsistent between temperature metrics and percentile thresholds of EH but largely insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Green space, housing and social isolation may independently enhance elderly peoples’ heat-related cardiovascular mortality vulnerability. Local adaptation efforts should target areas and populations at greater risk.","Gronlund, Carina J.; Berrocal, Veronica J.; White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Conlon, Kathryn C.; O'Neill, Marie S.",10.1016/j.envres.2014.08.042,11/25,"0013-9351
1096-0953","Environmental Research",PMC,449-461,"Vulnerability to extreme heat by socio-demographic characteristics and area green space among the elderly in Michigan, 1990-2007",136,2015,21133,9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.envres.2014.08.042
/reference/9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07,9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07,,"Andresen, Jeff; Steve Hilberg; Ken Kunkel",,,,,,18,"Historical Climate and Climate Trends in the Midwestern USA. U.S. National Climate Assessment Midwest Technical Input Report",,2012,21250,9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07,Report,/report/historical-climate-climate-trends-midwestern-usa-us-national-climate-assessment-midwest-technical-input-report
/reference/a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550,a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550,"Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.","Maclean, Ilya M. D.; Wilson, Robert J.",10.1073/pnas.1017352108,"July 26, 2011",,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",,12337-12342,"Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk",108,2011,21166,a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1017352108
/reference/a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292,a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292,"Changes in temperature, CO(2), and precipitation under the scenarios of climate change for the next 30 yr present a challenge to crop production. This review focuses on the impact of temperature, CO(2), and ozone on agronomic crops and the implications for crop production. Understanding these implications for agricultural crops is critical for developing cropping systems resilient to stresses induced by climate change. There is variation among crops in their response to CO(2), temperature, and precipitation changes and, with the regional differences in predicted climate, a situation is created in which the responses will be further complicated. For example, the temperature effects on soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] could potentially cause yield reductions of 2.4% in the South but an increase of 1.7% in the Midwest. The frequency of years when temperatures exceed thresholds for damage during critical growth stages is likely to increase for some crops and regions. The increase in CO(2) contributes significantly to enhanced plant growth and improved water use efficiency (WUE); however, there may be a downscaling of these positive impacts due to higher temperatures plants will experience during their growth cycle. A challenge is to understand the interactions of the changing climatic parameters because of the interactions among temperature, CO(2), and precipitation on plant growth and development and also on the biotic stresses of weeds, insects, and diseases. Agronomists will have to consider the variations in temperature and precipitation as part of the production system if they are to ensure the food security required by an ever increasing population.","Hatfield, J. L.
Boote, K. J.
Kimball, B. A.
Ziska, L. H.
Izaurralde, R. C.
Ort, D.
Thomson, A. M.
Wolfe, D.",10.2134/agronj2010.0303,Mar-Apr,1435-0645,"Agronomy Journal",,351-370,"Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production",103,2011,361,a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292,"Journal Article",/article/10.2134/agronj2010.0303
/reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,,"Wehner, M.F.; J.R. Arnold; T. Knutson; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande",10.7930/J0CJ8BNN,,,,,231-256,"Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires",,2017,21566,a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/drought-floods-hydrology
/reference/a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634,a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634,,"Ash, Jeremy D.; Givnish, Thomas J.; Waller, Donald M.",10.1111/gcb.13429,,1365-2486,"Global Change Biology",,1305-1315,"Tracking lags in historical plant species’ shifts in relation to regional climate change",23,2017,21187,a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634,"Journal Article",/article/10.1111/gcb.13429
/reference/a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3,a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3,,"Ducks Unlimited,",,,,,,2,"Missouri state conservation report",,2016,21301,a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3,Report,/report/missouri-state-conservation-report
/reference/a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e,a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e,,"Hellmann, Jessica J.
Byers, James E.
Bierwagen, Britta G.
Dukes, Jeffrey S.",10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x,,1523-1739,"Conservation Biology",,534-543,"Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species",22,2008,705,a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x
/reference/a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf,a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf,,"Tobin, Patrick C.; Nagarkatti, Sudha; Loeb, Greg; Saunders, Michael C.",10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01561.x,,1365-2486,"Global Change Biology",,951-957,"Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species",14,2008,21190,a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf,"Journal Article",/article/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01561.x
/reference/a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6,a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6,"Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995–2004 and 2085–2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems.","Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali; Archontoulis, Sotirios V.; Zobel, Zachary; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.",10.1111/gcb.13617,,,"Global Change Biology",,2687-2704,"The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future U.S. rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2",23,2017,26583,a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6,"Journal Article",/article/10.1111/gcb.13617
/reference/a9e10150-ec9c-47b9-838f-655a4b838703,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a9e10150-ec9c-47b9-838f-655a4b838703,a9e10150-ec9c-47b9-838f-655a4b838703,,"Hanrahan, Janel L.; Kravtsov, Sergey V.; Roebber, Paul J.",10.1029/2009GL041707,,1944-8007,"Geophysical Research Letters",,L01701,"Connecting past and present climate variability to the water levels of Lakes Michigan and Huron",37,2010,21155,a9e10150-ec9c-47b9-838f-655a4b838703,"Journal Article",/article/10.1029/2009GL041707
/reference/aa980625-eab7-45f5-9bcb-d8dbbd36e6c7,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/aa980625-eab7-45f5-9bcb-d8dbbd36e6c7,aa980625-eab7-45f5-9bcb-d8dbbd36e6c7,,"Criss, Robert E.; William E. Winston",10.1289/ehp.12042,,,"Environmental Health Perspectives",,A516-A516,"Public safety and faulty flood statistics",116,2008,26564,aa980625-eab7-45f5-9bcb-d8dbbd36e6c7,"Journal Article",/article/10.1289/ehp.12042
/reference/ab5a35f8-2e28-4dd1-ba18-ded6a6d4c710,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ab5a35f8-2e28-4dd1-ba18-ded6a6d4c710,ab5a35f8-2e28-4dd1-ba18-ded6a6d4c710,"Large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present. The attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest. Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff. Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes. A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver. Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. A portion of the unexplained variability likely stems from land-use change.","Karen R. Ryberg; Wei Lin; Aldo V. Vecchia",10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000775,,,"Journal of Hydrologic Engineering",,148-158,"Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States",19,2014,20935,ab5a35f8-2e28-4dd1-ba18-ded6a6d4c710,"Journal Article",/article/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000775
/reference/aba9434d-2e5d-4ac7-b3fa-d5cc4eb43b58,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/aba9434d-2e5d-4ac7-b3fa-d5cc4eb43b58,aba9434d-2e5d-4ac7-b3fa-d5cc4eb43b58,,"Barclay, Pamela; Bastoni, Cara; Eisenhauer, David; Hassan, Masooma; Lopez, Melody; Mekias, Leila; Ramachandran, Sundeep; Stock, Ryan",,,,,,,"Climate Change Adaptation in Great Lakes Cities",,2013,25926,aba9434d-2e5d-4ac7-b3fa-d5cc4eb43b58,Thesis,/generic/485e261a-5aae-45b5-a826-5b7f912b1fc5
/reference/abc62f90-c586-4ed8-bb13-4f387a2eb9b0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/abc62f90-c586-4ed8-bb13-4f387a2eb9b0,abc62f90-c586-4ed8-bb13-4f387a2eb9b0,,"Zhong, Yafang; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Foster, Michael J.",10.1002/lno.10331,,1939-5590,"Limnology and Oceanography",,1762-1786,"Recent accelerated warming of the Laurentian Great Lakes: Physical drivers",61,2016,21110,abc62f90-c586-4ed8-bb13-4f387a2eb9b0,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/lno.10331
/reference/ac04db1a-16ad-4ca0-91c1-b08a981eec1c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ac04db1a-16ad-4ca0-91c1-b08a981eec1c,ac04db1a-16ad-4ca0-91c1-b08a981eec1c,,"Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP),",,,,,,,"Climate Adaptation Guidebook for Municipalities in the Chicago Region",,2013,21298,ac04db1a-16ad-4ca0-91c1-b08a981eec1c,Report,/report/climate-adaptation-guidebook-municipalities-chicago-region
/reference/ace4e686-cb47-4b0e-ab8f-3f57bc6e7795,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ace4e686-cb47-4b0e-ab8f-3f57bc6e7795,ace4e686-cb47-4b0e-ab8f-3f57bc6e7795,"Ecosystem stability in variable environments depends on the diversity of form and function of the constituent species. Species phenotypes and ecologies are the product of evolution, and the evolutionary history represented by co-occurring species has been shown to be an important predictor of ecosystem function. If phylogenetic distance is a surrogate for ecological differences, then greater evolutionary diversity should buffer ecosystems against environmental variation and result in greater ecosystem stability. We calculated both abundance-weighted and unweighted phylogenetic measures of plant community diversity for a long-term biodiversity–ecosystem function experiment at Cedar Creek, Minnesota, USA. We calculated a detrended measure of stability in aboveground biomass production in experimental plots and showed that phylogenetic relatedness explained variation in stability. Our results indicate that communities where species are evenly and distantly related to one another are more stable compared to communities where phylogenetic relationships are more clumped. This result could be explained by a phylogenetic sampling effect, where some lineages show greater stability in productivity compared to other lineages, and greater evolutionary distances reduce the chance of sampling only unstable groups. However, we failed to find evidence for similar stabilities among closely related species. Alternatively, we found evidence that plot biomass variance declined with increasing phylogenetic distances, and greater evolutionary distances may represent species that are ecologically different (phylogenetic complementarity). Accounting for evolutionary relationships can reveal how diversity in form and function may affect stability.","Cadotte, Marc W.; Dinnage, Russell; Tilman, David",10.1890/11-0426.1,,,Ecology,,S223-S233,"Phylogenetic diversity promotes ecosystem stability",93,2012,25925,ace4e686-cb47-4b0e-ab8f-3f57bc6e7795,"Journal Article",/article/10.1890/11-0426.1
/reference/ad1de932-cd23-42a8-8c6f-e0039db9b17d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ad1de932-cd23-42a8-8c6f-e0039db9b17d,ad1de932-cd23-42a8-8c6f-e0039db9b17d,,"Dey, K. C.; A. Mishra; M. Chowdhury",10.1109/TITS.2014.2371455,,1524-9050,"IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems",,1107-1119,"Potential of intelligent transportation systems in mitigating adverse weather impacts on road mobility: A review",16,2015,21183,ad1de932-cd23-42a8-8c6f-e0039db9b17d,"Journal Article",/article/10.1109/TITS.2014.2371455
/reference/ad473f6f-2580-4a70-aba7-699277024c20,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ad473f6f-2580-4a70-aba7-699277024c20,ad473f6f-2580-4a70-aba7-699277024c20,,"Sekaluvu, Lawrence; Zhang, Lefei; Gitau, Margaret",10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.09.063,2018/01/01/,0301-4797,"Journal of Environmental Management",,85-98,"Evaluation of constraints to water quality improvements in the Western Lake Erie Basin",205,2018,26608,ad473f6f-2580-4a70-aba7-699277024c20,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.09.063
/reference/aea68228-a48b-4827-9403-3c43499afc55,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/aea68228-a48b-4827-9403-3c43499afc55,aea68228-a48b-4827-9403-3c43499afc55,,"Mishra, Vimal; Cherkauer, Keith A.; Niyogi, Dev; Lei, Ming; Pijanowski, Bryan C.; Ray, Deepak K.; Bowling, Laura C.; Yang, Guoxiang",10.1002/joc.2095,,1097-0088,"International Journal of Climatology",,2025-2044,"A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States",30,2010,21109,aea68228-a48b-4827-9403-3c43499afc55,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/joc.2095
/reference/aeb9b543-7b7d-48e7-b1a6-57de7bff663c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/aeb9b543-7b7d-48e7-b1a6-57de7bff663c,aeb9b543-7b7d-48e7-b1a6-57de7bff663c,,"Peterson, Kristina; Maldonado, Julie Koppel",,,,,,336-353,"When adaptation is not enough: “Between now and then” of community-led resettlement",,2016,26605,aeb9b543-7b7d-48e7-b1a6-57de7bff663c,"Book Section",/book/b8b89670-ca60-4597-943f-d5d48dcdcc27
/reference/b00a1349-fb5f-4e2d-b1bc-cfceb0863de2,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b00a1349-fb5f-4e2d-b1bc-cfceb0863de2,b00a1349-fb5f-4e2d-b1bc-cfceb0863de2,"Heat is an environmental and occupational hazard. The prevention of deaths in the community caused by extreme high temperatures (heat waves) is now an issue of public health concern. The risk of heat-related mortality increases with natural aging, but persons with particular social and/or physical vulnerability are also at risk. lmportant differences in vulnerability exist between populations, depending on climate, culture, infrastructure (housing), and other factors. Public health measures include health promotion and heat wave warning systems, but the effectiveness of acute measures in response to heat waves has not yet been formally evaluated. Climate change will increase the frequency and the intensity of heat waves, and a range of measures, including improvements to housing, management of chronic diseases, and institutional care of the elderly and the vulnerable, will need to be developed to reduce health impacts.","Kovats, R. S.
Hajat, S.",10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843,,0163-7525,"Annual Review of Public Health",,41-55,"Heat stress and public health: A critical review",29,2008,831,b00a1349-fb5f-4e2d-b1bc-cfceb0863de2,"Journal Article",/article/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843
/reference/b0449e10-e122-4c04-a967-f2aef8b905b8,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b0449e10-e122-4c04-a967-f2aef8b905b8,b0449e10-e122-4c04-a967-f2aef8b905b8,,"City of Chicago,",,,,,,,"City Unveils “Greenest Street in America” in Pilsen Neighborhood",,2012,21297,b0449e10-e122-4c04-a967-f2aef8b905b8,"Press Release",/generic/c8b9985b-7191-45dd-8d2f-b5e74c2e37f9
/reference/b0d94572-aa34-47e0-bddf-0a8e7e0c60bb,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b0d94572-aa34-47e0-bddf-0a8e7e0c60bb,b0d94572-aa34-47e0-bddf-0a8e7e0c60bb,,"Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akcakaya, H. Resit",10.1038/nclimate2113,03//print,1758-678X,"Nature Climate Change",,217-221,"Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change",4,2014,21158,b0d94572-aa34-47e0-bddf-0a8e7e0c60bb,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate2113